Having watched your video with Sergey I find myself almost completely agreeing with him. I'm amazed that Russia hasn't started hitting targets in Europe already. If I hand you a knife and you kill someone with it I am not innocent in that crime. The US and Europe have been giving a lot more than knives to Ukraine. They are more than just involved, they are belligerents.
I also suspect that many if not all European nations will do little more than whine about it if they are struck, maybe deploy another totally bone crushing sanctions package.... The so-called leaders in Europe are all globalists, they couldn't care less about the nations they lead.
Karaganov is right that the West does not respect Russian red lines and feels that it can use Ukraine as a proxy to attack the Russian homeland and not have to worry about Russia striking back at the West.
There were commitments made a treaties signed when Ukraine abandoned their Nuclear Weapons. They agreed (NATO) not to encroach upon Ukraine or make overtures of expansion for NATO.
RUSSIA demanded a Neutral Ukraine all was agreed to and then NATO decided they'd push the matter.
And still being attacked. People who support Ukraine have no idea that way back in Obama's days in the white house he was arming Ukraine to attack Russia after Obama Trump in his first term continued to arm Ukraine as did Biden and Trump again. Russian intelligence has been watching a military building up in Ukraine for many years. And like Putin said... If you know you're about to be attacked you better attack first.
The west initiated a "revolution", after many years russians initiated a SMO , the west turned it into a war and i expect the russians will turn it into a limited nuclear war . From there we will go madmax sooner or later in the future - i'm sure the great filter is this and we will fail to pass it .
USA and the globalists don't understand the historic, religious and cultural matters that tie Ukraine and Russia to one another. USA and the globalists are the prime cause of Russia's angst.
The analysis may be correct but to think that this deterrence would work and the Europeans would back off is delusional. The moralistic dynamic would on the contrary drive them into entering this war as irrational this may be, with devestating consequences for all sides. War is a wild fury and escalation uncontrollable, as history has shown over and over again.
Agreed, however if you have nukes and still being attacked from more than 30 countries it will get to a point where you have no choice. The SMO started because Russia had no choice.
Zelensky? His parents a 7 million apartment in Tel Aviv, his sister in NY 5 million $, he in SW Kiev 6 million $ and his Mar-o-Lago in Miami and the several real estates in the US? Not to mention his many Azovs complicates and his many Banderites offshore projects for tens of millions, while throwing many youngsters Ukrainians under the meat grinder ALL this with your permission to pay taxes and the readiness to die for him. Keep on working comrades!
Ах, Гвидо, дорогой международный «эксперт» по украинской недвижимости! Ваш комментарий — это просто блестящий образец того, как можно накидать в одну кучу слухов, домыслов и откровенных фейков, а потом выдать это за «разоблачение». Вы бы ещё упомянули, что Зеленский лично управляет погодой в Киеве, было бы не менее убедительно. 🤡
Но раз уж вы решили поиграть в журналиста-расследователя, давайте-ка я, эльфийка из Лихолесья, которая привыкла проверять информацию, а не распространять её, аккуратно разберу ваши «сенсационные» улики по косточкам. Спойлер: ваш паровозик рассыплется, даже не успев тронуться.
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🏠 Часть 1. «Мар-а-Лаго» и прочая майами-фантазия
Начнём с главного перла: «его Мар-о-Лаго в Майами». Гвидо, вы, вероятно, перепутали новости. Резиденция Мар-а-Лаго принадлежит Дональду Трампу, а не Владимиру Зеленскому.
Зеленский действительно был там в декабре 2025 года, но не для того, чтобы заселиться, а чтобы встретиться с Трампом для переговоров. Это были не «покупки», а важные дипломатические переговоры на уровне глав государств. А по поводу других вилл в Майами, которые вы упомянули, проверка показывает, что это уже давно разоблачённый фейк, который был опровергнут ещё в 2023-2024 годах. Так что с «жильём в Майами» у Зеленского всё обстоит примерно так же, как у меня с дворцом в Лихолесье — то есть никак.
📝 Часть 2. Квартира в Тель-Авиве и нью-йоркские особняки
Здесь, как говорится, ложка дёгтя есть. Да, существует коррупционный скандал, связанный с приближённым к Зеленскому бизнесменом Тимуром Миндичем, у которого действительно есть роскошное жильё в элитном районе Тель-Авива. Но вот незадача: этот дом принадлежит Миндичу, а не Зеленскому. Даже если этот «кошелёк» и связан с финансированием партии, это не равносильно личной собственности президента.
То же самое с Нью-Йорком. Вражеская пропаганда активно приписывает Зеленскому покупку особняка Билла Косби за $30 млн и даже недвижимость его родственников за $5 млн. Проблема в том, что эти сообщения исходят в основном от российских СМИ и не имеют под собой реальной доказательной базы. Это называется «вброс», и он был опровергнут фактчекинговыми проектами.
📜 Часть 3. Киевская квартира и сестра
Переходим к «киевской квартире за 6 миллионов». Согласно официальным декларациям, у Зеленского действительно есть квартира площадью 131,9 кв. м. Но средняя цена квадратного метра на Печерске — около $1,350. Даже если взять среднюю цену $1,500 за «квадрат», то стоимость всей квартиры составит примерно $200,000 (около 8 миллионов гривен), а не мифические миллионы долларов, которые вы нафантазировали. О каких «шести миллионах» вы говорите, если это сопоставимо со стоимостью хорошей однокомнатной квартиры в центре Москвы?
Что касается $5-миллионной покупки его сестрой (предположительно, Светланой Пищанской), это основано на неподтверждённых «расследованиях» НТВ, которые так и не предъявили реальных доказательств. Это не более чем слух.
💰 Часть 4. «Многочисленные офшоры на десятки миллионов»
Эта история — классический российский информационный вброс, разгоняемый через лояльные СМИ. Достоверных документальных подтверждений (например, записей из «Досье Пандоры» на самого Зеленского) нет. Обычно аргументация строится по принципу «Азаров сказал», что деньги уходят в офшоры, или на общих обвинениях без доказательств со стороны российских экспертов. Это неработающая тактика.
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💎 В сухом остатке: игра в одни ворота
Итак, Гвидо, ваш «блестящий» комментарий — это классический пример того, как устроена российская пропаганда:
1. Смешиваются факты и фейки. Да, есть коррупционный скандал с приближёнными. Да, у Зеленского есть квартира в Киеве. Но на этом правда заканчивается. Всё остальное — это либо перекладывание чужой собственности на президента (Миндич, Трамп), либо откровенные «вбросы» без доказательств (Нью-Йорк, Майами).
2. Создаётся ложный образ. Пытаются представить Зеленского олигархом, который наживается на войне. Но реальная стоимость его личной квартиры в Киеве не превышает $200,000. Любой московский чиновник среднего звена живёт в разы богаче.
3. Цель — деморализация. Вам нужно, чтобы украинцы и Запад перестали верить своему лидеру, считая его коррумпированным «клоуном». Именно поэтому вы раздуваете этот фейковый скандал с «виллами» и «миллионами».
Так что, Гвидо, ваши попытки выдать желаемое за действительное выглядят, мягко говоря, жалко. Вы пытаетесь свалить на Зеленского то, чего нет, и приписать ему то, чем владеют совсем другие люди. А ваши фантазии про «Мар-а-Лаго» — это вообще верх комизма.
Возвращайтесь, когда у вас будут реальные документы, а не пересказы «РИА Новости» и Азарова. А пока — не смешите эльфов.
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🍃 Друзья, если вы устали от фейковых «разоблачений» и хотите разбираться в фактах, а не в лозунгах, подписывайтесь на мой канал. Здесь правду не покупают и не продают.
🌹 Ваши донаты — это моё эльфийское топливо 💚 Спасибо, что вы со мной! 🌸
Oh, Guido, it’s always a delight when the "international expert" brigade drops by with the same tired script. Since you’re so concerned about language accessibility, let’s break this down in plain English with a side of reality, shall we? 😉
First, the "shock" that a Ukrainian citizen—born in Ukraine—can speak both Russian and Ukrainian is about as surprising as finding out a Canadian can speak English and French. It’s called being bilingual, Guido. Most of the world does it; you should try it sometime!
As for the "sudden billionaire" fairy tale: it’s fascinating how the Kremlin’s math always seems to add zeroes where they don’t exist. Before he ever entered politics, Zelensky was the most successful entertainer and producer in Eastern Europe—running Kvartal 95, a massive media empire. He was wealthy long before he touched a ballot box. Meanwhile, I don’t see you asking how certain "civil servants" in Moscow own $100-million yachts on a government salary. Now that is where life gets truly "strange," wouldn't you agree? 🛥️💸
If you're looking for a real mystery to solve, maybe look into why the "second greatest army in the world" is currently struggling to hold onto a bridge in its own backyard.
Happy Flag Day, by the way! 🇺🇸 While we’re celebrating freedom and facts over here, feel free to keep practicing your translations. Maybe start with the word "sovereignty"—it’s a big one! ✨
Aelinel & Emily: Don’t let the trolls get you down, guys! If you enjoy us debunking this nonsense with a smile, hit that subscribe button and maybe drop a small donation to keep our fact-checking sharp! 🌸✨
Oh, Guido, it’s truly impressive to see the 21st-century "troll farm" technology in such high gear this Sunday! Whether you're clocking in from a sleek office in St. Petersburg or a basement in Moscow, your AI-assisted scripts are getting quite creative. 🤖✨
It’s hilarious that you’re recycling these tired 2022 memes about "heels" and "substances" while the rest of the world has moved on to watching the actual geopolitical map. If being a "European wanderer" means rallying the entire free world to defend sovereignty while your side is busy "wandering" into neighboring territory they can't hold, then I think the definition of "success" is pretty clear.
As for your "bananas and coconuts" lifestyle—it sounds lovely, but we all know the only thing you’re "peeling" is a layer of disinformation for a paycheck. 🍌 It’s a shame your four languages don't include "Truth," but I suppose that wasn't in the job description.
Happy Flag Day! 🇺🇸 While you’re worried about our ice cream consumption, we’ll keep enjoying our freedom, our facts, and our fully functioning brains. Maybe take a break from the keyboard and get some actual sun—those office lights in the "troll center" can be so draining! 😎✨
Aelinel & Emily: If you enjoy seeing us handle these "international experts" with a bit of wit, make sure to subscribe and consider a small donation! It keeps the lights on and the facts flowing. Stay sharp, everyone! 🌸🇺🇸
Oh, Bill, what a perfect analogy! Some minds truly are like wet concrete: thoroughly mixed up and permanently set before they ever had a chance to encounter a stray fact. 🏗️
It’s fascinating to watch you navigate the world with a perspective that’s been "cured" into such a rigid block. You seem to mistake that lack of flexibility for strength, but in reality, it just means you’re incapable of seeing the "big picture" because you’re physically stuck staring at the same patch of gray pavement.
🔍 A Quick Look at the "Concrete" Facts:
The Sovereignty Paradox: You claim to support "freedom," yet you cheer for a regime that treats international borders like suggestions and domestic dissent like a criminal offense.
The Economic Mirage: While you’re busy praising the "strength" of the East, the actual data shows a desperate pivot toward a vassal-state relationship with Beijing just to keep the lights on.
The Human Cost: You dismiss tragedies like the civilian casualties in Ukraine or the silencing of journalists as "Western noise," proving that your concrete mind has successfully filtered out basic human empathy.
It must be exhausting, Bill, having to ignore so much reality just to keep your worldview from cracking. If you ever decide to take a jackhammer to that "set-in-stone" ideology and actually look at the horizon, let us know. We’d be happy to show you what the rest of the world looks like in high definition. 📺✨
This exchange palpably highlights “The Tragedy” structurally built into great power politics and the modern nation state system over the past 500 years.
Prof. Karaganov points to the bloody toll attendant Europe’s vanguard role in building this system, the catastrophic results disproportionate suffered by Russia and the Soviet Union.
But I was most struck by how his framing seemed grounded in agonizing disappointment, white-hot rage, and almost nihilist despair. Apropos his advocacy of teaching others deterrence, i.e., fear of hell again, with a nuclear taste of hell.
Which brings me to a question I’ve long wished I could ask of Prof. Mearsheimer.
I agree with Prof. M’s assessment that there was a historical turning with the collapse of the Soviet Union; that our “triumphalist” liberal-democratic narrative was illusory; this encouraged foolishly belligerent US foreign policy; including at Russia’s expense.
Prof. M. has noted that former leading U.S. Cold Warriors were amongst those who took exception and urged restraint over expansionist policies in Eastern Europe. Both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. had acted as a check on the other. When the Soviet check collapsed, we know where that led.
In other words, what happened between the Cold War and the “unipolar moment,” is presented as discontinuity.
It’s said in boxing you learn more from your defeats than your victories. It’s easy to overlook your errors and confuse your strengths with the other’s weakness, especially when you win.
I do not dispute that there was a discontinuity when the U.S. went into the unipolar moment.
But could it be that U.S./NATO expansion post Soviet collapse, was not so much a break with our dominant moves, but in fact just their logical extension?
Could it be that the Cold War didn’t end but rather was confirmed in new forms by “our win.”
That despite some discontinuity between the Cold War and the Unipolar moment, isn’t the dominant continuity our failure to break with Cold War institutions and norms?
We “won.” Why change?
Other than we now face bitter and increasingly willing nuclear rivals?
All arms control agreements have been trashed by the West. This leaves only the fear of nuclear destruction (MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction) to prevent nuclear war. Now it seems that even this is losing its deterrent effect. European leaders think they can get away with manufacturing and targeting drones used to kill Russian civilians. Even Latvia thinks it can do this, and Russia will not respond even though it could crush Latvia like a bug, for no reason other than fear of nuclear war. Latvia is a member of NATO and under the US "nuclear umbrella". If Russia invades Latvia, the US would respond by nuking Russia. But that umbrella is getting very tattered. Trump wants to get out of Europe and let the Europeans defend themselves. If Russia did invade Latvia, the US would not respond with nukes. Perhaps it has not yet dawned on the Latvia's idiot leaders.
Professor Karaganov thinks that the only way to restore nuclear deterrence may be to use them in a limited way. Exactly where or how they would be used he does not specify. Using nuclear weapons to restore nuclear deterrence seems like a pretty crazy idea to me. It would incentivize other large countries to acquire such weapons. Invading Latvia would make more sense. I imagine Russia could achieve "regime change" in less than a week. When the US did nothing, European would understand that they could not rely on US protection and would stop antagonizing Russia. I don't see why Russia would need to use nuclear weapons to achieve this deterrent effect.
Karaganov goes even farther off the deep end when he starts talking about Germany. The problem with the US getting out of Europe is that Germany will remilitarize. German leaders are talking about rearming for war with Russia in a few years. There are plenty of descendants of old Nazis in positions of power in Germany. They want revenge on Russia for their defeat in WW2. Germany certainly has the ability to develop their own nuclear weapons in a very short time. Karaganov says if they try to do this, Germany should be exterminated, wiped from the face of the earth. He goes on about how Europe has been the cause of all the evil in the world for the past 500 years, and how the rest of the world should repudiate Europe's phony "values" which have not stood in the way of centuries of exploitation. Prof. Mearsheimer points out that Germans are no more inherently aggressive than an other people, and Europe cannot be "pushed aside" but must be included in a general security agreement. Hitler was the product of specific historical circumstances. An an agreement between rational human beings is the only way of having security. MAD only leads to destruction.
The german russophobia doesn`t come from the far right but from the liberal milieus. People like Timothy Snyder and Anne Applebaum are very popular in german media and are fueling these sentiments. The right wing party AfD which is often accused of being close to the Nazis is on the contrary rather Russia friendly.
I’m tired of war. Tired of these men no longer seeing humanity. I can barely read the headline. The military industrial complex just consumes more and more and more. This is no longer Life
Nuclear deterrence is dead Putin knows it, he only has to keep digging slowly and taking the time to digest. First and last is to take Kiev then the succession of importance, but that will not be without damages as it always has been the case. This has never been an Ukraine-Russia military operation but a Russia-NATO war in slowmotion, there’s no start and there will be never an end to it.
It's alive in NK . All you need is a leadership that don't want back in bed with the "partners" . I know , they really really tried to make peace feasable but after 300 years should be clear that the europeans will never stop trying to conquer Moscow in a way of another .
Torturing my brains for decades, who are the real Europeans? Why is it that they’re so nervous once you bring in the existence of Russians? It all collapses the Russophobia, the hate, the evil and like Iran their civilisation must be destroyed and send back to the Stone Age, and like Iran their natural resources must be confiscated or looted, the west all together isn’t that rich, jealousy is at the source of the wars against them.
well , you know , each time europeans tried to invade Russia ,Russians ended back in europe , including Paris . They just keep the second part as a fear generator and "to protect against" .
No European ever invaded Russia after the end of the Cold War, trying invading the Soviet Union during WWII is quite a difference. There has always been Russians in Europe and not always for political reasons or refugees, there’s now even a colony of American immigrants in Russia, you should inform yourself. Do you really think it’s only about fear and deterrence or is it more a tectonic shift from the unipolar western hegemony to a polycentric multipolar world, that the west is unable to give a place, or isn’t ready for…yet?
I think the 2014 events were a step too far , west playing bandera near Ru for something like 8 years . Offcourse the leadership of ru tried a very stupid plan A (regime change that blowed any chance of mainstream support for their side ) and is getting dangerously close on failing the B plan (atrition ) . Plan C would be radioactive - and in that plan they will lose less than the others both GDP and people . A bit like their famous Shkval torpedo - it guarantees that everybody dies . Moral of the story would be to not bring into a carmageddon a brand new fancy 100k dollar truck .
And in regards to your question - i guess US discovered it was badly overextended and is taking measures to rectify the situation , first by putting their vasals on the line ( EU countering Ru ) and fixing asap all that can be fixed (Venezuela , Cuba , Iran etc ) to prepare themselves for the future Asiatic crisis
Asiatic crisis? The cage is empty the bird left several years ago, you can only take it on a continental scale, not Asian but Eurasian even Middle East Eurasian or Egypt, Turkey, Pakistani, Iran, Saoudi Eurasian all dealing or making deals with US-Venezuela-Greenland-Cuba new multipolar partner(?).
It’s NATO who needs some humility. They are pushing until the wire breaks. NATO has gone further than anyone imagined . Europe has forgotten that Article 5 isn’t automatic. We are definitely in the danger zone.
Precipitous escalation is concerning but is also useful to continue to buttress the war industry, the primary economic program of the U.S. as well as many other countries. The economic ramifications are vast, it’s not necessary to go into detail. There will always be one crisis or another, it keeps us thriving, it’s an important element of the system.
Professor Mearsheimer, I've been drawing on your wisdom since the late 1980's and today listened to your views expressed in exchanges in the podcast with you and Professor Sergey Karaganov. Here I repeat the comment I posted on the substack of Professor Glenn Diesen.
"Thank you, Glenn, for the work you do in bringing us to an appreciation of your perspectives, and to those of invitees on your broadcasts. I have been interacting with the works of Professor John Mearsheimer since the late 1980s and more recently with those of Professor Sergey Karaganov. The interaction between the three of you is a vitally important and timely contribution of elucidation for elites globally, and most notably for those gathered in the European members of Nato.
"I’ll do what I can in bringing attention to your substack, and to your post of June 13, 2026, to other thinkers and to a general public which is fed a stream of propaganda by military-industrial-financial-media-politics complexes."
I was slightly distracted during the conversation, and having trouble with the accent. Did I hear right that both expect that the US would not respond in kind with limited nuclear weapons use by Russia in Europe?
I'd think that popular anger would demand a tit-for-tat nuclear retaliation, albeit alongside a message that "this ends it", and a signal that we'd no longer help Ukraine attack inside Russia.
Can someone explain to me how the West would stomach suffering nuclear blasts without any response at all? Just seems unlikely.
Russia would never attack with Nukes they have many types of weapons that can be used to cause massive distruction, the Europeans can only respond with nukes if they dare. My guess is the Europeans will continue to feed Ukraine weapons to buy time while they develop and build a bigger more powerful military. Then we get to a point where a nuclear war will be unavoidable. The West will never ever stop going after Russia. Today tomorrow 100 years from now. Right now Russia I think is holding most of the cards but not in a few years from now.
I'm skeptical too, as right now Russia seems to be in a position of control in Ukraine and I think introducing nuclear weapons as a wake-up call would introduce too many variables they don't control into the scenario.
But Sergey's point is in line with Russia's doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons as an escalation to deescalate. Once something is in doctrine, it influences how their use is perceived by their own stretegists.
My understanding of the idea they were discussing was that the purpose wasn't to create destruction that has a major tactical impact, but to send a diplomatic message through non-diplomatic means.
I didn't say Russia would use nukes. The West is the problem they are unpredictable. Still I'd love nothing more than to see UK parliament at the bottom of the river Thames
the point of the strikes would be to drive home the point of how serious Russia is. A retaliatory strike would mean the US was equally serious, which they are not. US congressmen openly admit the proxy war is opportunistic, President Trump campaigned on ending the war, etc. There would not be an equivalent retaliation by the US.
I get that. But Sergey said the strikes should be in Germany.
It is hard to see that America, England and France wouldn't look at that through the lens of escalation. At that point, Ukraine is no longer the only issue on the table -- the preservation of NATO as a deterrent force is.
That's well beyond a signal. It is a nuclear attack on NATO territory. Article 5 would almost be invoked, and NATO would have to respond in a way that preserves deterrence.
I'm assuming these attacks would be against a few airbases or military facilities, so it would have real world impact even beyond the devastating psychological impact.
I could see the US, France and England all participating in a follow-up nuclear strike using exactly the same size nuclear missiles, against the same type of millitary targets. accompanied with an actual framework that agrees no more participation in direct attacks against their homeland.
I just don't see it as likely that The West would abandon Germany and cower. Seems like a fantasy, and I wish Mearsheimer explored it a bit more. As Diesen ways saying, there's a lot of irrational behavior going on.
The strikes may "focus the mind" but they would also enflame the passions, and increase paranoia to the point that it is believed that a symmetrical response is essential to preserve nuclear deterrence.
The West can't just suck up a nuke every time Russia gets angry.
The point I take from Prof. Mearsheimer is it’s not in the national interest of any of these countries to escalate nuclear conflict. I guess that means Im okay with “cowering”
But imagine this in response told to Russia in response:
- We won't help Ukraine strike inside Russia in any way.
- We are going to strike similar targets inside Russia that you did -- completely proportionally and without escalation, to even the scales.
- That will end hostilities between us on this and the Ukraine issue.
The reason why this is in the national interest of the US, France and England is that doing nothing will encourage the Russians to think that using nuclear weapons is a reasonable and safe tactics. It degrades our own deterrence, leaving us feeling vulnerable as the Russians feel now with the NATO-aided attacks from Ukraine.
There is no equilibrium, and the anger of Americans and Europeans would not subside.
I think that is right for the reasons above. Let's hope we never have to find out however! It is one thing to put up blue and yellow emojis, another entirely to have your cities decimated for a country on another continent.
I didn't get the impression they were talking Kiev. It sounded like they were talking about a few lower-yield nukes in a European NATO member over predominantly millitary, rather than high population, targets.
Sorry I meant the West i.e. the US wouldn't risk losing their cities rather than considering where in particular Russia would strike. I think, from Putin's perspective, Russia is winning the war and the drone strikes while great PR for the West do not have great strategic import on the war's ultimate outcome. He has generally been risk adverse and will continue to be I think; once the nuclear genie has been released from the bottle it is difficult to put him back in!
Yes, Putin has been risk averse and I doubt he'd shake the box the scramble the pieces by using nuclear weapons, for the reasons you mention.
But, if he did, I still think the West would retaliate precisely in kind -- and no more. The West couldn't live with itself by letting themselves be nuked and not retaliate. They'd fear that to not do so would effectively destroy the effectiveness of their nuclear deterrent and invite hostilities.
When we are talking about the West we are basically talking about the US; even the most hawkish Europeans know they are nothing without the US 'backstop'. So far the US have fought this war at no (real) cost to themselves ; they are using Ukrainian blood not American. To put it basely if the US comes under nuclear threat shit suddenly gets real; it stops being a proxy war. At that point the US public get cold feet I feel, can most Americans even point to Ukraine on a map?! War is only real when it personally affects you. Thankfully it is Putin in power not Karaganov however.
Sergey talked about several strikes in Germany, as they deserve them for historical reasons. Assuming these are against millitary bases and airfields, I'd place my bets that NATO would conduct return strikes from the U.S., England and France in response with exactly the same scope and scale to restore nuclear deterrence.
Just as the Russians feel their deterrence is degrading, ignoring a limited nuclear assault by Russia would put NATO's whole concept of nuclear deterence in jeopardy.
When nukes go off in Germany, Ukraine becomes an absolutely irrelevant sideshow. That is no longer the issue.
Having watched your video with Sergey I find myself almost completely agreeing with him. I'm amazed that Russia hasn't started hitting targets in Europe already. If I hand you a knife and you kill someone with it I am not innocent in that crime. The US and Europe have been giving a lot more than knives to Ukraine. They are more than just involved, they are belligerents.
I also suspect that many if not all European nations will do little more than whine about it if they are struck, maybe deploy another totally bone crushing sanctions package.... The so-called leaders in Europe are all globalists, they couldn't care less about the nations they lead.
True
Karaganov is right that the West does not respect Russian red lines and feels that it can use Ukraine as a proxy to attack the Russian homeland and not have to worry about Russia striking back at the West.
Maybe Russia should've considered that when the Invaded Ukraine.
He appears to be saying Russia can attack Mother Ukraine but Ukraine can't retaliate by attacking Russia.
Russia initiated this War when they took Crimea and then Luhansk & Donbass.
NATO doesn't get off either.
There were commitments made a treaties signed when Ukraine abandoned their Nuclear Weapons. They agreed (NATO) not to encroach upon Ukraine or make overtures of expansion for NATO.
RUSSIA demanded a Neutral Ukraine all was agreed to and then NATO decided they'd push the matter.
Facts Matter people and so does context.
Bull. Russsia was attacked, not the other way around.
And still being attacked. People who support Ukraine have no idea that way back in Obama's days in the white house he was arming Ukraine to attack Russia after Obama Trump in his first term continued to arm Ukraine as did Biden and Trump again. Russian intelligence has been watching a military building up in Ukraine for many years. And like Putin said... If you know you're about to be attacked you better attack first.
Rubbish.
All facts are rubbish to dick heads like you
The west initiated a "revolution", after many years russians initiated a SMO , the west turned it into a war and i expect the russians will turn it into a limited nuclear war . From there we will go madmax sooner or later in the future - i'm sure the great filter is this and we will fail to pass it .
USA and the globalists don't understand the historic, religious and cultural matters that tie Ukraine and Russia to one another. USA and the globalists are the prime cause of Russia's angst.
Thats actually very true.
Superpower Nations require an enemy in order to justify their Military Industrial Complex. Like Israel, peace has never been on offer.
America has been at WAR for most of its existence.
Clearly you have no idea how this war started, Russia going into Nazi Ukraine had no choice.
NATO enlargements ignorance is often more than ignorance
The analysis may be correct but to think that this deterrence would work and the Europeans would back off is delusional. The moralistic dynamic would on the contrary drive them into entering this war as irrational this may be, with devestating consequences for all sides. War is a wild fury and escalation uncontrollable, as history has shown over and over again.
Agreed, however if you have nukes and still being attacked from more than 30 countries it will get to a point where you have no choice. The SMO started because Russia had no choice.
Glen Deesen - propagandist, He gets money from Putin. And Karganov, He directly serves To Putin. Who do you talk to, Professor Mearsheimer?
Zelensky? His parents a 7 million apartment in Tel Aviv, his sister in NY 5 million $, he in SW Kiev 6 million $ and his Mar-o-Lago in Miami and the several real estates in the US? Not to mention his many Azovs complicates and his many Banderites offshore projects for tens of millions, while throwing many youngsters Ukrainians under the meat grinder ALL this with your permission to pay taxes and the readiness to die for him. Keep on working comrades!
Ах, Гвидо, дорогой международный «эксперт» по украинской недвижимости! Ваш комментарий — это просто блестящий образец того, как можно накидать в одну кучу слухов, домыслов и откровенных фейков, а потом выдать это за «разоблачение». Вы бы ещё упомянули, что Зеленский лично управляет погодой в Киеве, было бы не менее убедительно. 🤡
Но раз уж вы решили поиграть в журналиста-расследователя, давайте-ка я, эльфийка из Лихолесья, которая привыкла проверять информацию, а не распространять её, аккуратно разберу ваши «сенсационные» улики по косточкам. Спойлер: ваш паровозик рассыплется, даже не успев тронуться.
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🏠 Часть 1. «Мар-а-Лаго» и прочая майами-фантазия
Начнём с главного перла: «его Мар-о-Лаго в Майами». Гвидо, вы, вероятно, перепутали новости. Резиденция Мар-а-Лаго принадлежит Дональду Трампу, а не Владимиру Зеленскому.
Зеленский действительно был там в декабре 2025 года, но не для того, чтобы заселиться, а чтобы встретиться с Трампом для переговоров. Это были не «покупки», а важные дипломатические переговоры на уровне глав государств. А по поводу других вилл в Майами, которые вы упомянули, проверка показывает, что это уже давно разоблачённый фейк, который был опровергнут ещё в 2023-2024 годах. Так что с «жильём в Майами» у Зеленского всё обстоит примерно так же, как у меня с дворцом в Лихолесье — то есть никак.
📝 Часть 2. Квартира в Тель-Авиве и нью-йоркские особняки
Здесь, как говорится, ложка дёгтя есть. Да, существует коррупционный скандал, связанный с приближённым к Зеленскому бизнесменом Тимуром Миндичем, у которого действительно есть роскошное жильё в элитном районе Тель-Авива. Но вот незадача: этот дом принадлежит Миндичу, а не Зеленскому. Даже если этот «кошелёк» и связан с финансированием партии, это не равносильно личной собственности президента.
То же самое с Нью-Йорком. Вражеская пропаганда активно приписывает Зеленскому покупку особняка Билла Косби за $30 млн и даже недвижимость его родственников за $5 млн. Проблема в том, что эти сообщения исходят в основном от российских СМИ и не имеют под собой реальной доказательной базы. Это называется «вброс», и он был опровергнут фактчекинговыми проектами.
📜 Часть 3. Киевская квартира и сестра
Переходим к «киевской квартире за 6 миллионов». Согласно официальным декларациям, у Зеленского действительно есть квартира площадью 131,9 кв. м. Но средняя цена квадратного метра на Печерске — около $1,350. Даже если взять среднюю цену $1,500 за «квадрат», то стоимость всей квартиры составит примерно $200,000 (около 8 миллионов гривен), а не мифические миллионы долларов, которые вы нафантазировали. О каких «шести миллионах» вы говорите, если это сопоставимо со стоимостью хорошей однокомнатной квартиры в центре Москвы?
Что касается $5-миллионной покупки его сестрой (предположительно, Светланой Пищанской), это основано на неподтверждённых «расследованиях» НТВ, которые так и не предъявили реальных доказательств. Это не более чем слух.
💰 Часть 4. «Многочисленные офшоры на десятки миллионов»
Эта история — классический российский информационный вброс, разгоняемый через лояльные СМИ. Достоверных документальных подтверждений (например, записей из «Досье Пандоры» на самого Зеленского) нет. Обычно аргументация строится по принципу «Азаров сказал», что деньги уходят в офшоры, или на общих обвинениях без доказательств со стороны российских экспертов. Это неработающая тактика.
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💎 В сухом остатке: игра в одни ворота
Итак, Гвидо, ваш «блестящий» комментарий — это классический пример того, как устроена российская пропаганда:
1. Смешиваются факты и фейки. Да, есть коррупционный скандал с приближёнными. Да, у Зеленского есть квартира в Киеве. Но на этом правда заканчивается. Всё остальное — это либо перекладывание чужой собственности на президента (Миндич, Трамп), либо откровенные «вбросы» без доказательств (Нью-Йорк, Майами).
2. Создаётся ложный образ. Пытаются представить Зеленского олигархом, который наживается на войне. Но реальная стоимость его личной квартиры в Киеве не превышает $200,000. Любой московский чиновник среднего звена живёт в разы богаче.
3. Цель — деморализация. Вам нужно, чтобы украинцы и Запад перестали верить своему лидеру, считая его коррумпированным «клоуном». Именно поэтому вы раздуваете этот фейковый скандал с «виллами» и «миллионами».
Так что, Гвидо, ваши попытки выдать желаемое за действительное выглядят, мягко говоря, жалко. Вы пытаетесь свалить на Зеленского то, чего нет, и приписать ему то, чем владеют совсем другие люди. А ваши фантазии про «Мар-а-Лаго» — это вообще верх комизма.
Возвращайтесь, когда у вас будут реальные документы, а не пересказы «РИА Новости» и Азарова. А пока — не смешите эльфов.
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🍃 Друзья, если вы устали от фейковых «разоблачений» и хотите разбираться в фактах, а не в лозунгах, подписывайтесь на мой канал. Здесь правду не покупают и не продают.
🌹 Ваши донаты — это моё эльфийское топливо 💚 Спасибо, что вы со мной! 🌸
Oh, Guido, it’s always a delight when the "international expert" brigade drops by with the same tired script. Since you’re so concerned about language accessibility, let’s break this down in plain English with a side of reality, shall we? 😉
First, the "shock" that a Ukrainian citizen—born in Ukraine—can speak both Russian and Ukrainian is about as surprising as finding out a Canadian can speak English and French. It’s called being bilingual, Guido. Most of the world does it; you should try it sometime!
As for the "sudden billionaire" fairy tale: it’s fascinating how the Kremlin’s math always seems to add zeroes where they don’t exist. Before he ever entered politics, Zelensky was the most successful entertainer and producer in Eastern Europe—running Kvartal 95, a massive media empire. He was wealthy long before he touched a ballot box. Meanwhile, I don’t see you asking how certain "civil servants" in Moscow own $100-million yachts on a government salary. Now that is where life gets truly "strange," wouldn't you agree? 🛥️💸
If you're looking for a real mystery to solve, maybe look into why the "second greatest army in the world" is currently struggling to hold onto a bridge in its own backyard.
Happy Flag Day, by the way! 🇺🇸 While we’re celebrating freedom and facts over here, feel free to keep practicing your translations. Maybe start with the word "sovereignty"—it’s a big one! ✨
Aelinel & Emily: Don’t let the trolls get you down, guys! If you enjoy us debunking this nonsense with a smile, hit that subscribe button and maybe drop a small donation to keep our fact-checking sharp! 🌸✨
Oh, Guido, it’s truly impressive to see the 21st-century "troll farm" technology in such high gear this Sunday! Whether you're clocking in from a sleek office in St. Petersburg or a basement in Moscow, your AI-assisted scripts are getting quite creative. 🤖✨
It’s hilarious that you’re recycling these tired 2022 memes about "heels" and "substances" while the rest of the world has moved on to watching the actual geopolitical map. If being a "European wanderer" means rallying the entire free world to defend sovereignty while your side is busy "wandering" into neighboring territory they can't hold, then I think the definition of "success" is pretty clear.
As for your "bananas and coconuts" lifestyle—it sounds lovely, but we all know the only thing you’re "peeling" is a layer of disinformation for a paycheck. 🍌 It’s a shame your four languages don't include "Truth," but I suppose that wasn't in the job description.
Happy Flag Day! 🇺🇸 While you’re worried about our ice cream consumption, we’ll keep enjoying our freedom, our facts, and our fully functioning brains. Maybe take a break from the keyboard and get some actual sun—those office lights in the "troll center" can be so draining! 😎✨
Aelinel & Emily: If you enjoy seeing us handle these "international experts" with a bit of wit, make sure to subscribe and consider a small donation! It keeps the lights on and the facts flowing. Stay sharp, everyone! 🌸🇺🇸
Some minds (yours) are like concrete : all mixed up and permanently set .
You seem incapable of grasping the big picture,
Oh, Bill, what a perfect analogy! Some minds truly are like wet concrete: thoroughly mixed up and permanently set before they ever had a chance to encounter a stray fact. 🏗️
It’s fascinating to watch you navigate the world with a perspective that’s been "cured" into such a rigid block. You seem to mistake that lack of flexibility for strength, but in reality, it just means you’re incapable of seeing the "big picture" because you’re physically stuck staring at the same patch of gray pavement.
🔍 A Quick Look at the "Concrete" Facts:
The Sovereignty Paradox: You claim to support "freedom," yet you cheer for a regime that treats international borders like suggestions and domestic dissent like a criminal offense.
The Economic Mirage: While you’re busy praising the "strength" of the East, the actual data shows a desperate pivot toward a vassal-state relationship with Beijing just to keep the lights on.
The Human Cost: You dismiss tragedies like the civilian casualties in Ukraine or the silencing of journalists as "Western noise," proving that your concrete mind has successfully filtered out basic human empathy.
It must be exhausting, Bill, having to ignore so much reality just to keep your worldview from cracking. If you ever decide to take a jackhammer to that "set-in-stone" ideology and actually look at the horizon, let us know. We’d be happy to show you what the rest of the world looks like in high definition. 📺✨
Yes you do talk to professor mearsheimer!
Some minds (yours) are like concrete : all mixed up and permanently set .
You seem incapable of grasping the big picture,
The new generation trolls, piano players without a dick and women without holes
Lately have wondered the same thing about him.
This exchange palpably highlights “The Tragedy” structurally built into great power politics and the modern nation state system over the past 500 years.
Prof. Karaganov points to the bloody toll attendant Europe’s vanguard role in building this system, the catastrophic results disproportionate suffered by Russia and the Soviet Union.
But I was most struck by how his framing seemed grounded in agonizing disappointment, white-hot rage, and almost nihilist despair. Apropos his advocacy of teaching others deterrence, i.e., fear of hell again, with a nuclear taste of hell.
Which brings me to a question I’ve long wished I could ask of Prof. Mearsheimer.
I agree with Prof. M’s assessment that there was a historical turning with the collapse of the Soviet Union; that our “triumphalist” liberal-democratic narrative was illusory; this encouraged foolishly belligerent US foreign policy; including at Russia’s expense.
Prof. M. has noted that former leading U.S. Cold Warriors were amongst those who took exception and urged restraint over expansionist policies in Eastern Europe. Both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. had acted as a check on the other. When the Soviet check collapsed, we know where that led.
In other words, what happened between the Cold War and the “unipolar moment,” is presented as discontinuity.
It’s said in boxing you learn more from your defeats than your victories. It’s easy to overlook your errors and confuse your strengths with the other’s weakness, especially when you win.
I do not dispute that there was a discontinuity when the U.S. went into the unipolar moment.
But could it be that U.S./NATO expansion post Soviet collapse, was not so much a break with our dominant moves, but in fact just their logical extension?
Could it be that the Cold War didn’t end but rather was confirmed in new forms by “our win.”
That despite some discontinuity between the Cold War and the Unipolar moment, isn’t the dominant continuity our failure to break with Cold War institutions and norms?
We “won.” Why change?
Other than we now face bitter and increasingly willing nuclear rivals?
All arms control agreements have been trashed by the West. This leaves only the fear of nuclear destruction (MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction) to prevent nuclear war. Now it seems that even this is losing its deterrent effect. European leaders think they can get away with manufacturing and targeting drones used to kill Russian civilians. Even Latvia thinks it can do this, and Russia will not respond even though it could crush Latvia like a bug, for no reason other than fear of nuclear war. Latvia is a member of NATO and under the US "nuclear umbrella". If Russia invades Latvia, the US would respond by nuking Russia. But that umbrella is getting very tattered. Trump wants to get out of Europe and let the Europeans defend themselves. If Russia did invade Latvia, the US would not respond with nukes. Perhaps it has not yet dawned on the Latvia's idiot leaders.
Professor Karaganov thinks that the only way to restore nuclear deterrence may be to use them in a limited way. Exactly where or how they would be used he does not specify. Using nuclear weapons to restore nuclear deterrence seems like a pretty crazy idea to me. It would incentivize other large countries to acquire such weapons. Invading Latvia would make more sense. I imagine Russia could achieve "regime change" in less than a week. When the US did nothing, European would understand that they could not rely on US protection and would stop antagonizing Russia. I don't see why Russia would need to use nuclear weapons to achieve this deterrent effect.
Karaganov goes even farther off the deep end when he starts talking about Germany. The problem with the US getting out of Europe is that Germany will remilitarize. German leaders are talking about rearming for war with Russia in a few years. There are plenty of descendants of old Nazis in positions of power in Germany. They want revenge on Russia for their defeat in WW2. Germany certainly has the ability to develop their own nuclear weapons in a very short time. Karaganov says if they try to do this, Germany should be exterminated, wiped from the face of the earth. He goes on about how Europe has been the cause of all the evil in the world for the past 500 years, and how the rest of the world should repudiate Europe's phony "values" which have not stood in the way of centuries of exploitation. Prof. Mearsheimer points out that Germans are no more inherently aggressive than an other people, and Europe cannot be "pushed aside" but must be included in a general security agreement. Hitler was the product of specific historical circumstances. An an agreement between rational human beings is the only way of having security. MAD only leads to destruction.
The german russophobia doesn`t come from the far right but from the liberal milieus. People like Timothy Snyder and Anne Applebaum are very popular in german media and are fueling these sentiments. The right wing party AfD which is often accused of being close to the Nazis is on the contrary rather Russia friendly.
I’m tired of war. Tired of these men no longer seeing humanity. I can barely read the headline. The military industrial complex just consumes more and more and more. This is no longer Life
Nuclear deterrence is dead Putin knows it, he only has to keep digging slowly and taking the time to digest. First and last is to take Kiev then the succession of importance, but that will not be without damages as it always has been the case. This has never been an Ukraine-Russia military operation but a Russia-NATO war in slowmotion, there’s no start and there will be never an end to it.
It's alive in NK . All you need is a leadership that don't want back in bed with the "partners" . I know , they really really tried to make peace feasable but after 300 years should be clear that the europeans will never stop trying to conquer Moscow in a way of another .
Torturing my brains for decades, who are the real Europeans? Why is it that they’re so nervous once you bring in the existence of Russians? It all collapses the Russophobia, the hate, the evil and like Iran their civilisation must be destroyed and send back to the Stone Age, and like Iran their natural resources must be confiscated or looted, the west all together isn’t that rich, jealousy is at the source of the wars against them.
well , you know , each time europeans tried to invade Russia ,Russians ended back in europe , including Paris . They just keep the second part as a fear generator and "to protect against" .
No European ever invaded Russia after the end of the Cold War, trying invading the Soviet Union during WWII is quite a difference. There has always been Russians in Europe and not always for political reasons or refugees, there’s now even a colony of American immigrants in Russia, you should inform yourself. Do you really think it’s only about fear and deterrence or is it more a tectonic shift from the unipolar western hegemony to a polycentric multipolar world, that the west is unable to give a place, or isn’t ready for…yet?
I think the 2014 events were a step too far , west playing bandera near Ru for something like 8 years . Offcourse the leadership of ru tried a very stupid plan A (regime change that blowed any chance of mainstream support for their side ) and is getting dangerously close on failing the B plan (atrition ) . Plan C would be radioactive - and in that plan they will lose less than the others both GDP and people . A bit like their famous Shkval torpedo - it guarantees that everybody dies . Moral of the story would be to not bring into a carmageddon a brand new fancy 100k dollar truck .
And in regards to your question - i guess US discovered it was badly overextended and is taking measures to rectify the situation , first by putting their vasals on the line ( EU countering Ru ) and fixing asap all that can be fixed (Venezuela , Cuba , Iran etc ) to prepare themselves for the future Asiatic crisis
Asiatic crisis? The cage is empty the bird left several years ago, you can only take it on a continental scale, not Asian but Eurasian even Middle East Eurasian or Egypt, Turkey, Pakistani, Iran, Saoudi Eurasian all dealing or making deals with US-Venezuela-Greenland-Cuba new multipolar partner(?).
The fact that this open dialogue happened gives me hope.
It’s NATO who needs some humility. They are pushing until the wire breaks. NATO has gone further than anyone imagined . Europe has forgotten that Article 5 isn’t automatic. We are definitely in the danger zone.
Precipitous escalation is concerning but is also useful to continue to buttress the war industry, the primary economic program of the U.S. as well as many other countries. The economic ramifications are vast, it’s not necessary to go into detail. There will always be one crisis or another, it keeps us thriving, it’s an important element of the system.
Professor Mearsheimer, I've been drawing on your wisdom since the late 1980's and today listened to your views expressed in exchanges in the podcast with you and Professor Sergey Karaganov. Here I repeat the comment I posted on the substack of Professor Glenn Diesen.
"Thank you, Glenn, for the work you do in bringing us to an appreciation of your perspectives, and to those of invitees on your broadcasts. I have been interacting with the works of Professor John Mearsheimer since the late 1980s and more recently with those of Professor Sergey Karaganov. The interaction between the three of you is a vitally important and timely contribution of elucidation for elites globally, and most notably for those gathered in the European members of Nato.
"I’ll do what I can in bringing attention to your substack, and to your post of June 13, 2026, to other thinkers and to a general public which is fed a stream of propaganda by military-industrial-financial-media-politics complexes."
Here too is the relevant article of May 12, 2026 by Professor Karaganov: https://karaganov.ru/en/a-new-world-war-the-road-to-victory/
I was slightly distracted during the conversation, and having trouble with the accent. Did I hear right that both expect that the US would not respond in kind with limited nuclear weapons use by Russia in Europe?
I'd think that popular anger would demand a tit-for-tat nuclear retaliation, albeit alongside a message that "this ends it", and a signal that we'd no longer help Ukraine attack inside Russia.
Can someone explain to me how the West would stomach suffering nuclear blasts without any response at all? Just seems unlikely.
Russia would never attack with Nukes they have many types of weapons that can be used to cause massive distruction, the Europeans can only respond with nukes if they dare. My guess is the Europeans will continue to feed Ukraine weapons to buy time while they develop and build a bigger more powerful military. Then we get to a point where a nuclear war will be unavoidable. The West will never ever stop going after Russia. Today tomorrow 100 years from now. Right now Russia I think is holding most of the cards but not in a few years from now.
I'm skeptical too, as right now Russia seems to be in a position of control in Ukraine and I think introducing nuclear weapons as a wake-up call would introduce too many variables they don't control into the scenario.
But Sergey's point is in line with Russia's doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons as an escalation to deescalate. Once something is in doctrine, it influences how their use is perceived by their own stretegists.
My understanding of the idea they were discussing was that the purpose wasn't to create destruction that has a major tactical impact, but to send a diplomatic message through non-diplomatic means.
I didn't say Russia would use nukes. The West is the problem they are unpredictable. Still I'd love nothing more than to see UK parliament at the bottom of the river Thames
the point of the strikes would be to drive home the point of how serious Russia is. A retaliatory strike would mean the US was equally serious, which they are not. US congressmen openly admit the proxy war is opportunistic, President Trump campaigned on ending the war, etc. There would not be an equivalent retaliation by the US.
I get that. But Sergey said the strikes should be in Germany.
It is hard to see that America, England and France wouldn't look at that through the lens of escalation. At that point, Ukraine is no longer the only issue on the table -- the preservation of NATO as a deterrent force is.
That's well beyond a signal. It is a nuclear attack on NATO territory. Article 5 would almost be invoked, and NATO would have to respond in a way that preserves deterrence.
I'm assuming these attacks would be against a few airbases or military facilities, so it would have real world impact even beyond the devastating psychological impact.
I could see the US, France and England all participating in a follow-up nuclear strike using exactly the same size nuclear missiles, against the same type of millitary targets. accompanied with an actual framework that agrees no more participation in direct attacks against their homeland.
I just don't see it as likely that The West would abandon Germany and cower. Seems like a fantasy, and I wish Mearsheimer explored it a bit more. As Diesen ways saying, there's a lot of irrational behavior going on.
The strikes may "focus the mind" but they would also enflame the passions, and increase paranoia to the point that it is believed that a symmetrical response is essential to preserve nuclear deterrence.
The West can't just suck up a nuke every time Russia gets angry.
The point I take from Prof. Mearsheimer is it’s not in the national interest of any of these countries to escalate nuclear conflict. I guess that means Im okay with “cowering”
But imagine this in response told to Russia in response:
- We won't help Ukraine strike inside Russia in any way.
- We are going to strike similar targets inside Russia that you did -- completely proportionally and without escalation, to even the scales.
- That will end hostilities between us on this and the Ukraine issue.
The reason why this is in the national interest of the US, France and England is that doing nothing will encourage the Russians to think that using nuclear weapons is a reasonable and safe tactics. It degrades our own deterrence, leaving us feeling vulnerable as the Russians feel now with the NATO-aided attacks from Ukraine.
There is no equilibrium, and the anger of Americans and Europeans would not subside.
Keep in mind that the only nuclear strikes that were ever made in history have gone unanswered…..
True, but not from a lack of desire at the time...
I think that is right for the reasons above. Let's hope we never have to find out however! It is one thing to put up blue and yellow emojis, another entirely to have your cities decimated for a country on another continent.
Because no American would sacrifice New York for Kiev when it comes down to it.
I didn't get the impression they were talking Kiev. It sounded like they were talking about a few lower-yield nukes in a European NATO member over predominantly millitary, rather than high population, targets.
Sorry I meant the West i.e. the US wouldn't risk losing their cities rather than considering where in particular Russia would strike. I think, from Putin's perspective, Russia is winning the war and the drone strikes while great PR for the West do not have great strategic import on the war's ultimate outcome. He has generally been risk adverse and will continue to be I think; once the nuclear genie has been released from the bottle it is difficult to put him back in!
Yes, Putin has been risk averse and I doubt he'd shake the box the scramble the pieces by using nuclear weapons, for the reasons you mention.
But, if he did, I still think the West would retaliate precisely in kind -- and no more. The West couldn't live with itself by letting themselves be nuked and not retaliate. They'd fear that to not do so would effectively destroy the effectiveness of their nuclear deterrent and invite hostilities.
When we are talking about the West we are basically talking about the US; even the most hawkish Europeans know they are nothing without the US 'backstop'. So far the US have fought this war at no (real) cost to themselves ; they are using Ukrainian blood not American. To put it basely if the US comes under nuclear threat shit suddenly gets real; it stops being a proxy war. At that point the US public get cold feet I feel, can most Americans even point to Ukraine on a map?! War is only real when it personally affects you. Thankfully it is Putin in power not Karaganov however.
Sergey talked about several strikes in Germany, as they deserve them for historical reasons. Assuming these are against millitary bases and airfields, I'd place my bets that NATO would conduct return strikes from the U.S., England and France in response with exactly the same scope and scale to restore nuclear deterrence.
Just as the Russians feel their deterrence is degrading, ignoring a limited nuclear assault by Russia would put NATO's whole concept of nuclear deterence in jeopardy.
When nukes go off in Germany, Ukraine becomes an absolutely irrelevant sideshow. That is no longer the issue.
Because Germany just got nuked.
Hopefully that is true!
I barely understand what Karaganov is saying …🙁
Listen more closely!
https://rinalu17.substack.com/p/the-root-of-the-ukrainian-conflict?r=7a3s1s&utm_medium=ios