80 Comments
User's avatar
Pedro's avatar

The United States today has nothing positive to offer the world. But as long as they need to pretend that they have the helm in their hands, they are a great danger. The current White House administration doesn't even understand what its problems are.

Fran's avatar
1dEdited

I'm no Trump lover. but those that preceded him implemented a number of wars in the Middle East basically doing Israel's bidding. The war in Iran has been on Netanyahu's hit list for decades as were the middle eastern countries we took out in this 21st century. Lets rid ourselves of Israel, and her control in this country and perhaps we'll begin to develop a saner perspective. I don't know what Kevin Flynn is talking about either, but he certainly is not in the here and now in terms of the Iranian situation.

Pedro's avatar

I agree with you. Trump is not the cause but a symptom. The cause is a certain "forma mentis" that shackles the US, or at least its elites, perpetuating error.

Fran Macadam's avatar

I don’t think this President is going to defy Israel’s leadership. So much infrastructure is already in combination with Israeli that intelligence and military are de facto merged with ours and Congress is poised to make that permanently de jure. For all practical purposes, in any areas Israeli political leadership cares about, Israeli policy controls American policy. Not just this administration, but the previous also asserted there was no daylight between the two. It has been pointed out it is not an alliance because it is far closer than that, with recent US politicians saying Tel Aviv is really a congressional district with millions of US voters residing there.

ts1213's avatar

I don’t think this President is going to defy Israel’s leadership.

And they, undoubtedly, have his rap sheet of perversion.

denmla's avatar

heee hee oops same as the buy in bus!....I grab ! ! ....heeeeheee no need for epy-epistain....it is nature of the>>> ....Man is and remains an animal.Here a beast of prey, there a housepet, but always an animal.

Joseph Goebbels...... ''hail LITRA'' heeee

Pedro's avatar

To Fran Macadam

Israel is an insignificant country that doesn't "lead" anything. Its overvaluation stems from its role as a foreign legion for the US in the region.

The Americans are beginning to realize that Israel costs them a lot, that they lose a lot because of this partnership, and that it's ultimately worthless.

Fran Macadam's avatar

We could and do offer positives, but they are heavily skewed to support one country’s policy preferences in the Middle East, even though they currently are not in anyone’s long term interest.

Pedro's avatar

To Fran Macadam

It sounds very elegant and neat to call a racist ethnic cleansing project "policy preferences".

Aelinel & Emily Harper's avatar

Professor Mearsheimer,

With respect, I find this assessment overly optimistic for Iran and somewhat detached from recent developments.

Just yesterday Iranian officials were telling the US that the attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz were a mere “system error” for which they were not responsible. That doesn’t sound like the confident position of a side that is winning or holding strong. It sounds like damage control after their own actions backfired diplomatically and militarily.

Iran has lost key leaders, suffered significant economic damage, seen its oil exports disrupted, and is now forced to negotiate while trying to save face. The US and Israel have demonstrated the ability to strike deep inside Iran with relative impunity. The idea that Iran can keep escalating indefinitely without paying a heavy price ignores the reality on the ground and in the economy.

The war has been extremely costly for everyone involved. Claiming that Iran has already “won” or that the US has “capitulated” seems premature. The situation remains fluid, and both sides appear to be looking for an off-ramp — which is precisely why negotiations continue.

Pedro's avatar

Aelinel and Emily Harper

"Iranian officials told the United States that the attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz were simply a 'system error' for which they were not responsible."

Who are these officials? Anonymous? No reliable source reports this.

Aelinel & Emily Harper's avatar

Dear Pedro,

Oh, the classic “anonymous sources don’t count” defense when the information is inconvenient.

The reports about Iranian officials calling the attacks a “system error” come from Reuters and Axios, citing multiple high-level U.S. officials familiar with the diplomatic communications. This is standard practice in serious journalism — governments rarely make such admissions on camera.

If you only trust statements that Iranian officials make publicly on state TV, then of course you’ll never hear about internal damage control or pragmatic factions trying to save the negotiations.

But dismissing well-sourced diplomatic reporting simply because it doesn’t fit the desired narrative isn’t skepticism — it’s selective blindness.

Hugh D Campbell's avatar

I particularly enjoyed your posts in Russian, once I figured out how to turn off automatic translation in Substack. But they all appear to be AI-generated as well, I am sorry to say.

Aelinel & Emily Harper's avatar

Dear Hugh,

Thank you for the kind words and for the heroic effort of disabling auto-translate just to read my Russian posts. I’m genuinely flattered by your dedication.

It’s always amusing when someone immediately assumes everything is “AI-generated” the moment they disagree with the content or the perspective. Perhaps it’s easier than engaging with the actual arguments.

Rest assured, I do write my own material — with my own thoughts, research, and occasional sarcasm. AI helps with editing and structure sometimes, just like millions of other writers. But the opinions, analysis, and choice of topics are mine.

If my posts bother you enough to leave comments like this, maybe that says more about the strength of your own position than about my writing.

Keep reading. Critical thinking is free and doesn’t require auto-translate. 😉

Hugh D Campbell's avatar

I ran this through ‘Slop Or Not,’ and the rating was 97.75% AI Slop vs 2.24% Human. But I’d like to give you the benefit of that rather small doubt.

Aelinel & Emily Harper's avatar

Dear Hugh,

Thank you for your diligent investigation with the cutting-edge “Slop Or Not” program. 97.75% AI errors? That’s an impressively precise number — almost as if it came from… well, an AI.

I’m truly honored that you’re willing to give me a chance despite my alleged robotic origins. How magnanimous of you.

Next time you might want to try the revolutionary method called “reading the arguments and checking the sources” instead of running mysterious percentage generators. It works wonders for actual critical thinking.

But by all means, keep hunting for AI slop. I’m sure it’s a very fulfilling hobby.

With zero surprise and maximum amusement,

Aelinel 🧝‍♀️

denmla's avatar

...hmm, welcome to Paris 1975...oops we have people who claim it was ....oops who care....one thing for sure we won in Grenadda and Panama... others heeeee ''premature lose!!!

Howard R Lazarus's avatar

His original attack was foolish. However, this needs to be ended. So; 1) We can have China as the mediator...or 2) we have to dig up a "Curtis Lemay" solution= All bridges, road systems, utility plants, dams, ports, food processing and storage, etc...ultimately, perhaps a biological solution. (Ebola comes to mind). I prefer option 1. 2 should be on the back of everyone's mind and remain a dark dream.

LJones's avatar

Burning them to cinders is better than nuking them to cinders you think?

Howard R Lazarus's avatar

I hope that cooler heads prevail...however, this is how we did conduct ourselves previously...they should take note.

Jmm11b's avatar

At this point the US cannot win the war, we also can't leave the Iranians in control of the strait. Trump tired out first and the Iranians couldn't figure how cut deal that wouldn't require giving up control of the strait, which is now more valuable than the nuclear material. So, options; either the USA can walk away from Trump's own created disaster or they can gear up for long brutal bombing campaign. I'd gear up for the bombing, the longer we fight to keep the strait freely open the more support we will gain, the other option isn't worth contemplating

Pedro's avatar

That "forma mentis" you share is what's leading the US to failure. Believing they have the power to impose their conditions on the world. But that all-powerful power is no longer in the hands of the US. It's over.

Jmm11b's avatar

Trump started a war he couldn't finish, it left him in a no win situation, what's left is to continue what he started and settle it some time down the road when Iran decides the pain isn't worth the game ...choice the US has is they control the strait or they don't... Or the last option, we quit the game

Nemo's avatar

Is Trump calling a false flag on himself? (Cartoon) https://substack.com/@nemopix/note/c-293053434

C. Turner's avatar

This is one of a thousand things that can and, in our case, will happen every fkn time when one is dealing with someone who thinks they are among the most clever people to don a shitty spray tan.

What's so much worse is the majority of the dumfucks around this ass-hat belive it as well. And they spray it all over his face, on camera no less, every opportunity that arises.

So the next time you write an article that tries to explain the Insanities of the United Satates position in this or any other conflict the United States is Invloved in, just know that its not "us" that cannot defeat or conclude said conflict- its the dumbass that didn't write "the art of the deal".

Fran's avatar
1dEdited

In other words it's all Trump's fault? If that is what you are saying explain all our Middle Eastern wars in this century. Explain the death and destruction implemented on countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya etc. but not under Trump. Explain why we decided on implementing a coup in Ukraine, and when you do name the president who who was in office at that time. Biden as president did give that agenda away when he claimed Putin has got to go. A NATO country at Russia's back door? Your asking for war. One man, and agreed not good, is not the sole perpetrator of what has gone on for decades and has brought us to this point. Your on Mearsheimer, so what about AIPAC? What do you think of Netanyahu's idea that basically the US and Israel become more or less one military entity? That is, instead of us supporting them militarily they say we can keep the money and instead join forces. Good grief, the horror, the horror. Oh, and remember when Netanyahu was pushing for war with Iraq claiming he was on his way to developing nuclear weapons, a lie of course, but Biden, and chair of the Foreign Relations Committee at the time pushed his BS down the throats of his fellow democrats, and that was under Bush/Cheney.

C. Turner's avatar

I'm with ya on everything you state, lets get that straight first.

Im pretty sure I in no way inferred it was all any one man's fault and if I inferred anything it was shared by the windows washers about him. As far as history goes, there isn't a single fuck unscathed in this worldwide debacle, not one. Having said that, this mf'er ran his whole campaign as the president of peace and prosperity. And though I knew and predicted the whole time that he was just telling anyone that would listen he was going to bomb Iran, leave Ukraine with a bag of dog shit and tickle Putin's wrinkled ball sack while he stroke his "ego". Hes a simple Neanderthal with an unquenchable thirst for attention and validation and thinks fear and strength, of which he has/instills none, is the only way to survival and prosperity. Until the admin is finished things will only get worse so this is at hand and history is momentarily pointless.

Fran's avatar

I won't deny that I get carried away myself and say things that are more then harsh regarding Trump, but the writing was on the wall from the beginning when he was willing to take, I think, several hundred million from Adelson to clear out the West Bank, and of course it was on the Israeli agenda for some time, and much had already been accomplished in that regard. If you follow what is going on there it is absolutely barbaric, and the genocide also continues in Gaza.

In regard to Iran, I never believed this truce was genuine from the get go, because Iran's demand was that Lebanon not be targeted by Israel, and we knew that was not going to happen and this war was not coming to an end. A sham, and nothing more, played out by the US and Israel. Personally I think he would like this war to end, but Israel will not make that possible, nor accommodate that in any way, and he should have known that.

It seems you have a lot of hatred for Putin, I don't, because we left him with no other choice and the war in Ukraine never had to be. The US is fully culpable in the carnage that has destroyed so many lives.

This is what Merkel had to say about the Minsk accords. "The former German chancellor Angela Merkel sparked controversy with her candid reflections on the Minsk agreements. These accords were ostensibly negotiated to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent outbreak of hostilities by the Ukrainian army and the Azov Battalion against ethnic Russians in the Donbas and Donetsk regions.

In an interview and in her memoirs titled Freedom, Merkel stated that the agreements were not genuinely pursued as a path to peace with Russia but rather as a strategic delay tactic, buying Ukraine time to strengthen its military and prepare for an inevitable confrontation." Yeah, we used Ukraine to bring down Russia, a real neocon goal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fran Macadam's avatar

Ironically Putin’s reticence in escalating to Russia’s full capabilities is because he is likely trying to achieve Russia’s limited ends of reestablishing sovereignty in beleaguered Russian ethnic areas without ending up in an atomic war. The irony is particularly acute because western leaders mistake that existential caution for weakness, while pursuing a policy to eliminate Russia altogether, which certainly will make for that alternative existential atomic reaction, foolishly ending us all.

C. Turner's avatar

I think you give Putin far far to much credit and vastly unearned respect. He's a liar and a thief who lacks empathy and longs for breadwinner mystery. The world passed him by along with the rest of Russia because of he allowed for it. He was invited, he showed up fashionably late and left with stomach cramps and blamed the chef. Now, there's plenty of blame to go around because everyone in DC has some brilliant agenda for the sake of relevance and the misguided old and tired idea of legacy... we won't know about legacy. That's the fkn idea. Do your best to leave it as is or better than you found it. That's not a lot to ask. No one cares about your family's far out 7 generations from now potential struggles. Especially those who are currently suffering. We are the family you choose and thats exactly what you're doing when to campaign and accept a seat in the " shining city on a hill" blah blah blah fkn blah. Do your job and be the 1st to honesty.

C. Turner's avatar

Reestablish sovereignty? By invading Ukraine? Bullshit! Utter bullshit! Even the soldiers know this. Poland does too. That is one of the weakest and dumbest copes I've had to endure. What's Putin doing now, just fuckin around and sacrificing his strength and the lives and happiness of his countrymen? It doesn't and won't fuckin math.

C. Turner's avatar

I dont get carried away. Obviously we interpret carried away differently. I stand by all criticism that I put out about Trump. If you some how see that its the same as them then I beg you to look again. And also remember that it helps to get these things out. If you're willing to read it then there's a chance for discussion and intelligent conversation is hard to come by so it'll be much appreciated. Nuance is real.

C. Turner's avatar

More than harsh are of no consequence either way. This is a decent therapy and a shot at an even deeper understanding. Practice, practice, practice.

Fran Macadam's avatar

Intemperate language that matches that of the leader it’s aimed at doesn’t inspire confidence either. Regardless, the reality is that some of our wealthiest citizens and their influence is not going away no matter which party wins or who gets put into the Oval Office.

ken maynard's avatar

Trump has to salvage something that makes him LOOOK GOOD. Just what that might be is ANYBODIES GUESS; with the USA starving the world of fuel the whole world is going to hate you.

ken.maynard7@gmail.com

Pedro's avatar

I see that comments with the same pattern are being hidden; they all refer to Israel.

"Replies are hidden according to John's response rules and moderation preferences on Substack," reads the Substack justification label.

I doubt Mearsheimer is involved in this mess. Has the hasbara interfered in Substack?

Richard's avatar

Given the nature of U.S./Israel’s need for constant aggression and war in one form or another, this war will go on until the siege, combined with sophisticated technology, possibly use of weapons of mass destruction, brings Iran to its knees. U.S./Israel cannot conceive of any other option. I do not understand why “…war by other means” is viable in this situation.

Geoff Wexler's avatar

Religion is the play book to gasliight wars on both sides, yes. God comes in when Israelnisvinvolved through the beginingvand now, outlined in Deut 20.i think focusing on relationship vs religion is most important so Ibpereonallybdon't care what any athiest feels includingbDosvoyeski or World leaders who break Ĥis word. They will get whatvthey deserve for rejecting peace just like the war profiteers. Letbmevknow whatvyou think after reviewing the divinely scribed https://WHOtoSTOP.org, i know its long, yet telling.

denmla's avatar

..one can have bonified a war criminal that will be a hero for some on the other side....so? hee heee and winner is heee heee ask my brothe ''the lier'' heee hee

Arnold Rosen's avatar

Your lede is accurate, "The US Cannot Defeat Iran". Only the Iranian people can defeat, overturn, and extinguish the Islamic Republic of Iran. In that sense, the US can and will defeat Iran. That will occur only if the US perseveres, something a commentator like yourself will understandably oppose.

Pedro's avatar

To Arnold Rosen

"The United States can and will defeat Iran."

That's the "forma mentis" of Trump, of the American elites, and one you share. It's actually a myth that has them trapped, but one that today lacks objective reality. The US has lost the arms race and the industrial race, not to mention moral, political, and cultural influence.

Fran Macadam's avatar

Oddly enough, that argument is quite Jesuitical! :-) There’s been a lot of this “win by losing” rhetoric being creatively bounced around!

Arnold Rosen's avatar

By closing Hormuz and publicizing the Ayatollah's revenge proclamation, the forces behind Iran's psychotic ideology will compel even a Bozo like Trump to do the right thing... and I think the American people will follow. History teaches that even Lindbergh and the Bund (in America) folded when Hitler declared war on us. I wouldn't know if that's Jesuitical or not. To me, it just seems like gravity. You don't have to be Galileo to know that cannon balls will fall down when dropped from towers.

Roustabout Writer's avatar

It’s not that the war has been won.It seems to convey Iran’s leadership is able to indefinitely absorb whatever damage Trump attempts. Leads to the conclusion that continued attempts will be futile. That Trump’s military aggression is in fact feckless.

Steven F Stiglbauer's avatar

Unfortunately, at this point in time US actions have seriously screwed up the Gulf Region/Strait of Hormuz. Walking away isn't a realistic option. We broke it and now we have to figure a way to fix it. Our best minds should be constructively advising ways to recover the situation, not smugly gloating over how 'right' they were.

Pedro's avatar

To Steven F. Stiglbauer

There's no room for another fool in the White House. And in general, the American elites today are incapable of thinking beyond the myths that bind them.

Trigg Ledger Publisher's avatar

The corporate press is an echo chamber designed to make you final exit liquidity.

​While Wall Street panicked this weekend over the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Islamabad ceasefire collapse, our readers were already holding the blueprints.

​Here is the audited, timestamped proof of how tracking physical logistics and maritime choke points beat the mainstream news cycle by up to 24 days—yielding a verified +1,317% ROI.

https://triggledger.substack.com/p/beat-the-echo-the-audited-receipts?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8gc1qf

Trigg Ledger Publisher's avatar

​If you are waiting for legacy tech publications to tell you when a market is rigged, you are already the target. CNET’s July 9 exposé explicitly details how insider trading is running rampant across decentralized prediction sandboxes. Our subscribers received the complete 4-step "Cry Wolf" blueprint on June 16, weeks before retail capital noticed the drain.

​Review the data ledger here: https://triggledger.substack.com/p/the-arbitrage-of-fake-news-how-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8gc1qf