The US Cannot Defeat Iran
On 10 July 2026, I was on the “Deep Dive” with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis, where we talked mainly about Iran, although we did discuss Ukraine in the last part of the show. On Iran, we talked about the tit-for-tat bombing campaign between Iran and the US that has replaced the failed strategic bombing campaign (28 February—8 April 2026) and the failed naval blockade (13 April-17 June 2026). Now, the Trump administration thinks it can employ a tit-for-tat strategy to coerce the Iranians into allowing commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s permission.
Tehran categorically rejects this idea and maintains that any ship going through the Strait has to do so with Tehran’s explicit permission. There is no way that Iran is going to back down from this position and the US has no viable military strategy for getting Iran’s leaders to change their minds. Indeed, the Iranians have just closed the Strait completely, which is bad news for the Trump administration.
Of course, the US will be tempted to escalate the scope of its tit-for-tat strategy. But that will only backfire, because Iran benefits from going up the escalation ladder. This logic explains why the US signed the Memorandum of Understanding — a surrender document — on 17 June 2026. It had lost the war. Nothing has changed since then to reverse that outcome.
The United States today has nothing positive to offer the world. But as long as they need to pretend that they have the helm in their hands, they are a great danger. The current White House administration doesn't even understand what its problems are.
Professor Mearsheimer,
With respect, I find this assessment overly optimistic for Iran and somewhat detached from recent developments.
Just yesterday Iranian officials were telling the US that the attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz were a mere “system error” for which they were not responsible. That doesn’t sound like the confident position of a side that is winning or holding strong. It sounds like damage control after their own actions backfired diplomatically and militarily.
Iran has lost key leaders, suffered significant economic damage, seen its oil exports disrupted, and is now forced to negotiate while trying to save face. The US and Israel have demonstrated the ability to strike deep inside Iran with relative impunity. The idea that Iran can keep escalating indefinitely without paying a heavy price ignores the reality on the ground and in the economy.
The war has been extremely costly for everyone involved. Claiming that Iran has already “won” or that the US has “capitulated” seems premature. The situation remains fluid, and both sides appear to be looking for an off-ramp — which is precisely why negotiations continue.