This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions. First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Ukraine has been a "sovereign country" for all of 30 years, artificially created after the collapse of the USSR.
The "century" of mutual hatred you reference is limited to a couple western oblasts home to the Stefan Banderas Nazis who sided with Hitler. Those oblasts were historically part of Poland.
Russia's relationship with the Ukraine goes back hundreds of years. Since well before the Europeans genocided the native Americans. The oblasts Russia is likely to liberate were called "Novorossiya" when I was a kid. Catherine the Great founded Odessa. Go back far enough & Kiev was birthplace of the Rus & the first capital of Russia.
The war that "broke out" in 2014 was a US-instigated, $5B coup to oust the democratically elected president (who wanted to sign trade agreements with both the EU & Russia), to be replaced with Victoria Nuland's hand-picked, Russia-hating puppet government.
The oblasts that Russia "invaded" refused to accept Nuland's puppet government & declared independence, as is their right as declared by the UN ruling & precedent when Kosovo declared independence from Serbia sfter the US intervened there. Kiev's puppet government attacked the independent oblasts. As in Syria, the independent states asked Russia for help.
The damage to the German economy is primarily due to US mining of Nordstream, cutting off their access to economical natural gas. Nato on Nato attack.
You name Russia as the sole nuclear threat. That is laughable. They are very clear on their nuclear policy.
The US neocons are the ones who replaced MAD with "nuclear decapitation strike" on Moscow, back under W. Their sole goal in Ukraine is to position nukes close enough to Moscow to preempt a retaliatory strike. The policy continued under Obama, the US developed the fuze technology needed for such a strike.
Russia will win, hands down, & the "rump state" will likely be carved up, with Transcarpathia going to Hungary, Lviv to Pand, etc.
The US will have a hard time bringing weapons manufacturing back home. I seriously doubt China will be so foolish as to supply the rare earth materials needed to manufacture the advanced weapons so we can attack Taiwan.
The West will be fortunate to get out of this quagmire without triggering WW3 , as Ukraine is going to collapse ; then what? The West will be faced with a dilemma, insomuch, they will either flee Ukraine in a more humiliating debacle than Afghanistan, or, they will double down on failure by intervening like they did in KOsovo back in 1999... they would be insane to do it, but it wouldn't surprise me as the West have gone insane due to decadence, affluence and hedonism ... maybe triggering WW3 is just the inevitable Darwin Award the West have coming
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
What I am missing in this voluminous assessment of the future of this region, is the WEF. Is the stated need to reduce the global population. From both perspectives of "the great reset" and "build back better", the war in the region is a win/win situation for the legions of psychopaths that have long planned the present situation. The Russians are closer to Sun Tzu, as they are more deeply aligned with China - including its culture and history. Another author on Substack reminded people of the work that I have also urged those interested in understanding where all this is heading to read: "The Russian-China Double Helix" (https://www.sott.net/article/290554-The-Russian-Chinese-Double-Helix-Unprecedented-alliance) from 2014 is the most comprehensive and insightful work regarding the fusion of Russia and China in order to prevail against western hegemony.
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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It’s concerning. I’ve wondered are there elements that are seeking to undermine the US. Ukraine is attractive because it is a place where corruption is facilitated. A massive chunk of the funding is being siphoned off. It seems like there is a raiding of the US treasury going on with no regard for the unsustainable debt. In COVID too a massive wealth transfer with no regard to what all this is doing to the country. The mass immigration too. I wonder at times if there is a demolition going on such the US collapses under its own weight the country will be ripe for the pickings and easy to install more authoritarian rule. Just a theory. It just seem all too convenient if one wanted to facilitate a global governance structure that could toss aside the constitution. That incredible document.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Best comment on here. The US and the west in general are the ones undergoing some kind of Bolshevik homo cultural revolution and probably economic collapse. Not Russia. It sure seems like at least Russia has leaders that are loyal to their own country. Their nationalism doesn't really look like a weakness as far as I can tell. In the west, we currently have no national consensus and no ability to respond to any real threat. We are run by "leaders" that are literally working to destroy the country that's provided them with such a horn of plenty while they loot what's left of the treasury. If the US suffers economic collapse, I doubt if half the country will be motivated to lift a finger to help save the major institutions, kind of like what happened in the Soviet Union.
The West have became a parody of the final years of the Soviet Unions, while Putin's Russia has morphed into a traditional nation state .... in 30 years the political poles have reversed
I used to listen to the Shortwave in the 70s, where I could hear the radio services of many countries. Radio Moscow strived to provide accurate reporting on any number of issues many of which, yes, yes, were "Anti-American", like the plight of the American black man, the war ON Vietnam, their many coups and assassinations. There was no need to lie and history has shown me that they did not. RFE and VOA OTOH? Just nonsense, war propaganda for low info heavily propagandised Americans, Brits, and Canadians.
The 2020 election was a Flu d'etat by Dem Bolsheviks , and they don't ever intend to lose power again as they have developed a way to rig US elections
These Dem radicals intend to transform America like the original Bolsheviks did to Russia ; 2020 is their 1917 moment , their ground zero , or Germinal !
Agreed. It's a big moment in time. Look at how catastrophically and for how long the Bolsheviks screwed up Russia. Ditto for Mao over there in China. Even though Americans have taken this all on the chin so far, it's by no means a done deal yet. Targeting the Great American Redneck as the enemy is a going to be a pretty tough piece of meat for them to chew. People have had just about enough of their bullshit and their magic wand printing press is starting to go flaccid. They've picked too many fights at once in my opinion. Poking the bear with one stick, declaring war on conservatives, killing citizens with a laboratory pathogen, killing more citizens with a deadly shit shot, attacking allies (e.g, blowing up the NS2), sanctioning half the world, and even pissing off China. Yikes. I don't know how many people are finally awake, but a hell of a lot more than in early 2020, that's for sure.
What is your definition of "screwing up"? Does it include for example the industrialization, over the course of just ~10-15 years, of the almost purely agrarian country into the one that managed to withstand the German invasion during WWII thus not allowing to genocide tens of millions of slavs as subhumans?
They have picked the fights for a reason. The reason is they wish to destroy what is left of the USA and Liberty.
They are trying to rewrite history, make the rest of the world look on the American experiment in self governance as a thing to be avoided at all costs.
It is narrative writing and the Communists in our midst will do everything and anything to wipe us out.
I wouldn’t laugh. The Soviet system was so powerful that it put a rump version of itself in a position to win a war against us 30 years after it collapsed. The RF’s entire war doctrine was built on the leftovers of Soviet military and production culture.
When the Iron Curtain fell down the Bolshevik Jews all fled to the other side because they knew what the Russians would do to them after 100 years of communism.
The best thing about Russia getting Crimea back . . . Catherine the Great took it from the Turks… What happened right after Russia retook Crimea? The Russian FSB searched all the Turks living there . . . Why? Because NATO sponsors Islamist terrorism when it suits them to . . .
I seem to recollect the Uncle Joe starved 11M Ukrainians when he ruled the USSR. Was he being led by Jews? Or could it have been that communism was just hitting its stride at that point, regardless of what brought about its existence?
Useful idiot much there Bill? If you don't believe the right wing critics I strongly suggest reading Emma Goldman's Disillusionment in Russia, she was a left anarchist and strong supporter of Russian revolution who was eventually deported to Russia from the U.S. She did not enjoy her experience there and was actually there when the Knonstadt massacre of Russian anarchist sailors happened.
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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I can agree with the part where US is ran be people not representing the people who elected them. But please don’t glorify the Russian nationalism, because what western propaganda says is actually true, Kremlin brainwashed people into pure animal state to get the war support.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Mearsheimer is just "okay" on these matters, but is still far far better than the crazed and stupid warmongers who have their greasy fingers on all the buttons.
Bizarrely, he does not count America's war ON Afghanistan as one of the 'disastrous' wars. The Taleban offered to turn over former CIA operative Osama bin Laden both before and after 911.
Barak Obama's mentor Zbigniew Brzezinski (Mika’s father) was the monster in the Carter administration who armed and financed the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan to fight against the Soviets... after the Mujahedeen were armed with sophisticated weapons, the Soviets left, the result was the USA got 911, and women now can walk 3 paces behind the donkey, the Mujahedeen evolved into the Taliban, who evolved into Al-Qaeda, who evolved into ISIS/ISIL/Daesh . . . Brezinski, for all practical purposes, can be called the ‘Grandfather of ISIS.’
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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All true, but it is not all he did. Looks like he influenced the foreign policy direction towards Russia after USSR collapsed. He argued that Russia would not do well if it was cut off from Europe and the Black Sea, hence the idea of adding Ukraine and Georgia to the NATO.
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The war ON Russia started the day that "Bush" acting on direction from the Permanent Government, tore up the foundational ABM Treaty, thus laying the groundwork for a preemptive strike on the "Sovs" and of course, the "ChiComs".
The Ukrainian parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . Jewish U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D), great grandson of Jacob Schiff (who funded Bolshevism, Leon Trotsky, and the October Revolution from Wall Street) is following in his great grandfather’s footsteps by illegally trafficking weapons with Igor Pasternak, funding foreign conflicts abroad . . . And trying to get Syria for the oil pipelines by blaming the Russians for another false flag . . . ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
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The United States government is a wholly owned subsidiary of the American Israeli Political Action Committee . . .
Volodymyr Zelensky is an Israeli operative, the Ukrainian parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . Jews Anthony Blinken and Victoria Nuland grew up in Ukraine.
Jew Biden has a cabinet full of Bolshevist Jews, two of which (Blinken and Nuland) grew up in Ukraine . . . this is another Jewish war against Russians, funded by the Mensheviks on Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange.
One of the Ruzzian goals were to denazify Ukraine. When nazi Ruzzia invaded Ukraine in 2014 it was done by Russian nazis. They were in charge and the first Ruzzian puppet in charge was Pavel Gubarev.
Donbas have a big majority of ethnic Ukrainians as proven in the counting of people in Ukraine 2001. Photos show Donetsk in 2014. Ruzzian nazi propaganda portrait Donbas as a one big gang of Ruzzian supporters and its huge misleading info.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
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I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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He’s not glossing over anything in his analysis. He is approaching this from the realist school of international relations. He is a well known realist and believes it gives the right predictions more often than not. The focus is on great power conflicts.
Did you actually read the article and give it some thought based on his academic position? I have differences of opinion with him on China but he makes sense according to his position/
Was this the first time you ever encountered Mr. Mearsheimer? The essay suffers only from the curse that successful writers experience: having to repeat every single piece of history, opinion or data touching on an argument made about how the US is responsible for provoking the SMO, that led to the entirely avoidable catastrophe of a war, that may smolder ruinously in a region of the world, or destroy us all over the world.
Some of your salient facts aren’t essential to the argument in this essay. If every salient fact each of us could come up with we’re included, it would be even longer than it already is!
Nothing you mentioned was a revelation. I am familiar with every point you made, and I am certainly no expert. You fail to actually show how any of your points are required for an understanding of this argument. Address the argument.
Also, check out Glenn Greenwald’s System Update interview re: this particular essay. It’s on Rumble.
The whole interview requires a subscription to hear now. Glenn May release it for general distribution at some point if the interviewee agrees. Greenwald is an excellent resource for analysis and interviews on critical current events.
FIGHT YOUR OWN WARS, YOU KIKESUCKING ZIONIST ASS-WHORE . . .
NATO – an anti-white and anti-family institution . . .
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
As bad as the war has been for Ukraine, it will prove to be a blessing to the world as it has set in motion the end of the Globalist American Empire. The GAE sealed its fate when it cut Russia off from SWIFT. Every sovereign nation saw the dollar become a weapon, and now many are seeking alternative trade payment arrangements.
Over the long term that means the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Not a quick process, but it has already started. And that means the long term end of the empire. The GAE will not be able to print money and export most of its inflation aboard. Nor will it be able to afford its gigantic, inefficient military industrial complex.
All empires fall eventually, and the GAE is no exception to that rule.
I agree 100% with your second paragraph. However the key in the timeframe of course. There has to be an alternative to the USD. Lots of folks out there saying its BTC, its Gold...its a basket of commodities... I don't know but I suspect it will be a slow process over at least 10 probably 20 years. However they may be a Black Swan out there that drives things faster. I suspect it will be a painful process and not just for the USA. A multi polar world is going to face some terrible problems in the decade ahead. All the best to you.
The problems a multi-polar world will face will come almost exclusively from the death pangs of the American Empire. Empire's lash out as they collapse. Which seems to be exactly what the USA Empire is doing right now in multiple places around the globe.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
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I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Well spoken. It is hard to accept the Great Eastern European Meatgrinder as the price to pay for this, and I'm barely affected in any direct way, but end this empire must.
Very good analysis by John Mearsheimer. I have seen many articles condemning John's perspectives regarding the Russo-Ukraine war, however, on balance I support the analysis and have personally concluded that the West (primarily the US and the UK) has triggered the current war.
I fear that Ukrainian losses will mount very quickly as Russia gains strength and tests/adapts its increasing weaponry advantage. The current Ukrainian offensive is NOT gaining significant territory and those gains are at a tremendous cost. Compare the military video releases which during this offensive show terrible and daily Ukrainian battlefield losses and yet, compared to 2022 Ukrainian defense and territorial counterattacks, there are very few Ukrainian videos show successful Russian losses. That alone sends a clear message.
During 2022 we in the West were continually told the Russian economy would collapse, the Ruble would collapse, the Russian army and airforce would collapse, the Russians were running out of: soldiers, generals, aircraft, missiles, bombs, tanks etc. When this patently did not happen we were then told that the M777 Howitzer and +HIMARS provision would change the state of play.... then the Leopards and Chieftains would make a difference.... then the Patriot Missile batteries would be a game changer. As we can clearly see today the majority (at LEAST 51%) of these systems are now either destroyed, unserviceable, under repair or pulled back from anywhere close to the battlefront. Now we hear a chorus of give them F16s, that will change the score!!! Send M1A1 Abrams sooner and win this war!!! It's all nonsense. Whats more the Western media continues to press the narrative that Ukraine can will this war. Give the Ukrainians the tools and they can win.
It's simply shocking. The US, primarily, is precipitating the destruction of Ukraine and is currently fight this proxy war ....even unto the "last available Ukrainian soldier". History will not view Blinken, Noland and most of all Senator Graham kindly (not to forget the lying bumbling fool and US lap dog and now disgraced ex UK PM Boris Johnson). For their hands are covered in blood....... every bit as much as Zelensky and Putin.
Those over engineered , expensive ''wunda weapons'' are being quickly turned to junk by Russian mass artillery and cheap drones from Iran and China
Our so called leaders are educated idiots, wrong on everything, and yet these deluded fools think themselves qualified to engage in nuclear poker and brinkmanship with serious political actors like Putin and lavrov . Quite frankly, we are going to be fortunate to escape this quagmire without haplessly triggering WW3 , that we will surely lose
The Frankfurt School adapted Marx’s theories on revolution to include Freud’s theory of the subconscious. The Cultural Marxists’ main focus was to reshape the subconscious of Western men and women and thus create new type of person: one who would react passively to provocations of all kinds.
Our American President is doing globally what he’s done domestically in the US, namely dividing into a binary choice of being a friend or an enemy. Neutrality is unacceptable.
First of all, there are *videos* on twitter of dead Russians in the dozens everyday. Literally becoming cat/dog food. Bodies on bodies on bodies. And those are only the ones caught on camera. Russians regularly abandon their dead and their bodies are sometimes found only as skeletons. They care, as history demonstrates too, very little for human life. Secondly, Ukraine is definitely making bigger gains now than Russia did during it’s winter offensive even though the majority of the forces have not been deployed yet. Thirdly, wester weapons did prove to be crucial. HIMARS especially, as well as the M777. They successfully annihilated the Russian push during the summer of 2022 and given the Ukrainians the option to regain Kharkiv and Kherson. Fourthly, the Russian economy took a significant hit, but unfortunately India and China saved it from collapsing. Still, the rubble is on a stead downward trend and is projected to reach the bottom it conquered in March 2022, pretty soon. Fifthly, the EU hasn't even felt anything. As someone who lives in the EU all I see around me is money money and more money. The economy is booming….in the medium to long run Russia has no chance to somehow win economically over the West hahahah what a crazy idea even to think about it. Sixthly, yes, some were saying Russia was about to run out of missiles and look at what happened…Russian missile attacks are significantly less frequent and potent from the peak of one massive barrage every two weeks. Also, the west was going to run out of shells too, right? The US was supposed to be producing only 14k shells a month and yet somehow the Russians are still getting pounded into oblivion. Seventhly, 51% of wester weapons destroyed? Hahahahha you just pulled that right out of your behind, right? Obviously military hardware is meant to be used and take hits, especially the IFVs and Tanks. Btw where is Armata!?! Hahaha HIMARS however - NOT ONE DESTROYED. Incredible. Simply stunning. The only mistake the West keeps making is waiting unnecessarily long to give weapons. They should give Ukraine everything except Nukes. Finally, who is winning? Well, Ukraine was supposed to be demilitarized (now it’s one of the best armed and equipped armies in the world), it was supposed to be turned into a Russian puppet state (denazification) but now it’s absurd to even think about Russians conquering Kyiv. It was supposed to become a neutral state but now it’s going to be a de facto NATO member. Russia was supposed to secure a safe land bridge to Crimea and yet those pesky HIMARS and STORM SHADOWS make it inconceivable now. Ukraine today is the most famous country in the world and the modern Antemurale Christianitatis except it’s defending democracy against tyrannical Eastern Hordes.
Sorry, don't agree with anything you say. You are clearly deluded by the lies you hear, or perhaps by personal pain. We shall see how things progress. I still wish you the best. Stay safe.
The Jews started this war like they did WW1 and WW2 . . .
Thoughts on Britain’s “Rwanda Plan” . . . “It seems fair to conclude that Jewish organizations have uniformly advocated high levels of immigration of all racial and ethnic groups into Western societies and have also advocated a multicultural model for these societies.” — Kevin MacDonald, The Culture of Critique
I love Russians, I actually have Russian friends unlike you. Haha I hate the fascist Putin regime that is willing to kill hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians so that he can fulfill his wet dream of being a conqueror. Sad.
You forgot to mention the West's role in this carnage, it's been pouring oil on this fire from 2014 on (google the lieaked discussion between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt).
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He's a filthy lying Jew, like the Bolshevists Anthony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Janet Yellen, Angelino Mayorkas, Merrick Garland, Emmanuel Macron, et. al.
“During the previous Labour government, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were ardent Zionists because they accepted the justice of Israel’s cause, not because Labour’s chief fund-raisers were first the Jew Michael Levy and then the Jew Jonathan Mendelsohn (both are now members of the House of Lords). And during the current Conservative government, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have been ardent Zionists because they too accept the justice of Israel’s cause, not because the Conservatives’ chief fund-raisers have been first the Jew Sir Mick Davis and then the Jew Sir Ehud Sheleg.”
The Russian shill says I’m deluded hahahaha I always say to rushist bots, reading your insane coping and flat out denialism of reality makes me laugh and be sad at the same time.
If it is Russia that has the grandiose dreams of being conquerors, why did Russia sign and abide by two different peace agreements that the West all lied about? Shouldn't that have been the other way around?
Jewish Corruption in Ukraine . . . by Andrew Joyce, Ph.D.
❝. . . the present conflict is a huge distraction from the fact that, for decades, the biggest threat to Ukraine hasn’t been Russia, but financiers and speculators operating with impunity within Ukraine’s borders to exploit ethnic Ukrainians and plunder their resources.❞
The peace agreements were meant to make Ukraine into a vassal state of RF - giving the regions under de facto RU control "special status" and ability to veto Ukrainian political decisions.
Sure Putin would rather prefer to have Ukraine as a vassal state without resorting to military confrontation, and maybe later incorporating it like Belarus.
Whether he should have been given this opportunity - probably. Probably the West should have concentrated on making its frontiers an impenetrable wall rather then expanding to territories that are ill suited for defense.
Defense from what exactly? Russia is not a threat to try to conquer Europe. It is NATO that is both expansionary and has a military only designed for offensive maneuvers rather than defense as is Russia's military.
Ukraine’s “fame” is one no other country would envy. She is being demographically destroyed and reduced to a field lab for Western weaponry and insurgency strategies. Our elites will leave a legacy of environmental ruin, cultural wreckage and human trafficking in their wake.
I don’t see a contradiction. Ukraine is being used by the liberal imperium to force regime change in Russia and if it the plan worked (it didn’t) it would be subsumed into the imperium and stripped of the very national identity you purport to cherish.
There is no indication anywhere that the West wanted a regime change in Russia. For christ sake most western statesmen even now want to keep the Russian regime stable for a variety of reasons (nukes etc). The discourse of giving Putin an off ramp is ever present. This crisis is wholly a product of Russian imperialism and a wish to reassert control over the limitrophe.
No country in the West is stripped of it’s national identity, this is a myth that just wont die no matter what the reality on the ground says.
“It seems fair to conclude that Jewish organizations have uniformly advocated high levels of immigration of all racial and ethnic groups into Western societies and have also advocated a multicultural model for these societies.” — Kevin MacDonald, The Culture of Critique
If this war is a fight for freedom, then the Russian speaking east has a right to secede, correct?
Do you honestly think the US would tolerate a Russian friendly regime in Mexico or Canada? One birthed into existence by Russian NGOs and security services?
I understand any peoples desire to forge their own national identity and to step outside the shadow of a neighboring power with whom they share a complex and tragic history. But aligning with a super power 6,000 miles away and with interests and ideologies of their own is doomed to end in tears.
Finally, if you think the liberal imperium is going to allow Ukraine to carve out a nationalist identity and map out an independent destiny of its own, you are paying much attention.
The arms dealers, military advisors will remain and the money laundering will continue on less lucrative terms, but the Ukrainian people will be stuck with all of the downside of the cynical geopolitical travesty.
No they do not. There is no historical precedent for their autonomy and they were not under threat of genocide or ethnic cleansing. They were used crudely and blatantly by Russia to achieve it’s imagined imperial self worth. Political Russians in the East of UA (not Russian speakers which proved to be overwhelmingly on the side of UA - everyone expect a majority to side with Russia especially in Kharkiv but they did not) decided to be Moscow’s instrument of conquest. They were armed and organized by Russians to stage a rebellion against Kyiv and provide a cover for an all out invasion and annexation of Crime. Russia also provided crucial direct help that saved the rebels in the east. Their fight was a fight of conquest not freedom.
The US already tolerates Cuba. Also even if Canada were to turn fascist I do not think the US would have a right to invade and destroy Canada because of that. Ridiculous argument. Also Ukraine was not birth by NGOs but by the insane, idiotic, kleptocratic and corrupt pro Russian governments that ruled Ukraine since 1990. Young Ukrainians wanted their future to be like that of Poland and the rest of the former east block; remaining a Russian vassal was not an option.
There is no historical precedent for their autonomy? Are you sure you want to go on a historical tour of Ukraine’s ever changing borders, ethnic rivalries, differing languages and conflicts?
Stop wasting your time watching videos on Telegram and read the history. Practice strategic empathy and develop principles you can apply equally to geopolitics.
You may not be aware, but when the Ukrainian head of the USSR put missiles in Cuba it precipitated a nuclear showdown. Ultimately, Khrushchev withdrew his missiles from Cuba and Kennedy took our out of Turkey.
Statesmanship like that may no longer be possible if we don’t under the necessity for regional security complexes.
Ukraine is being ruthlessly used, not protected by our current elites.
Yes, I want to do it. Let’s go Kevin give it your best shot. You can do it buddy.
Ukraine is not being used, it’s an independent actor that could have decided to side with Russia. You are outside of your own mind swimming in the russian propaganda Koolaid. WAKE UP. Stop being a useful idiot and make your ancestors proud by supporting the fight against tyranny.
“They are, all of them, born with raging fanaticism in their hearts, just as the Bretons and the Germans are born with blonde hair, I would not be in the least bit surprised if these people would not become deadly to the human race. They have surpassed all nations in impertinent fables, in bad conduct and in barbarism. They deserve to be punished, for this is their destiny. The Jewish nation dares to display an irreconcilable hatred towards all nations, and revolts against all masters; always superstitious, always greedy for the well-being enjoyed by others, always barbarous; cringing in misfortune and insolent in prosperity.”
Sorry; you are NOT paying much attention. Best case scenario was always going to be Ukraine as a deracinated vassal state used as a source for wealth extraction by the “liberators”. The Orthodox iconography replaced by rainbows, the Bandera history memory-holed and the Azov imagery re-designed by someone in Soros
The man that posts this as his comment: "It’s only in times like this when I read lies from traitors that I wish the West was more like Russia" is ideologically possessed.
Anyway this person is the representative of the Balkan sycophant class, there is no reasoning with them.
I’m not sure who he means when he says “traitors.” I’m American and don’t see how my country’s interests are served by surrounding Russia with “pro-western” satellites. Our foreign policy Hive is better at destabilizing entire regions and opening the floodgates to murderous mayhem than they are at building up peaceful relations and regions.
Nor, do I see what Ukraine receives from this debacle. It is they who are being betrayed by the unholy alliance between their oligarchs and ours.
Kevin you are a traitor to your whole civilization not just america. A traitor of the free world. These are not “satellites” but free market democracies whose only shield against tyranny is the NATO alliance. The US profits from having a large and economically prosperous system of alliances. Look at South Korea, Japan, Germany, the whole of the EU etc. you’d throw all this in the arms of a tyrant??? When the Ukrainian people OVERWHELMINGLY say they want to be part of the West, when they are willing to die for Freedom here comes Kevin, a genius geopolitical visionary, and says NO! We will not support your fight for freedom because I am to stupid to see how that would directly benefit me in the short term. Plus I like to think I am smart when I criticize the mainstream politics in the US. I see an alliance of our oligarchs, I dont see the sea of regular Ukrainians clamoring for freedom. I am willing to be a useful idiot for fascist forces anywhere and anytime!!!
Pure projection. Best case scenario is Ukraine continues on a path of freedom and liberty and progressively becomes ever more rich and stable. Like all other east block countries that are today in the EU. Worst case scenario is Russia is a vassal state of a corrupt, barbaric, authoritarian kleptocracy called Russia. Orthodox iconography is not removed. Complete fantasy. Some Russian Orthodox priests are de facto agents of the Russian state and should be and are being either banished to Russia or imprisoned for treason. BTW I love how Ukraine is simultaneously a far right Nazi zombie state and a progressive, Soros open society leftist hellhole.
"BTW I love how Ukraine is simultaneously a far right Nazi zombie state and a progressive, Soros open society leftist hellhole." Yes, that's precisely what you love. But that's your problem. Isn't it remarkable how all these white supremacist, swastika bearing freedom fighters are dying on the front line while their politicos back in Kiev are passing pro-LBTQ+ laws only to satisfy their globohomo western backers? History will certainly look upon that as a major example of political schizophrenia but anything is good enough if it's against the hated Russians, right?
Ukraine had thirty years since independence to develop its economy and its system and failed at it, utterly. EU membership will make no difference. The idea that Eastern European countries that became EU members all prospered is bogus. All of them exported their unemployment problem to the old EU. The population decline in some countries was staggering, most notably in the oh-so-successful baltics. It's easy to become "successful" if much of the population is on menial jobs somewhere else. But the EU as a whole is in decline now and is also now taking in millions of immigrants from other parts of the world. Absorbing and subsidizing Ukraine in the same way as it was ostensibly done with other Eastern European countries will not be possible. What _will_ be possible is to depopulate Ukraine and sell it to the highest bidder for it to become a Western-owned, Western-run plantation state.
First of all, history is plenty of countries being proud to fight for freedom. Millions gave their lives for the chance to live in a free democratic society or at least not to be subjugated by another country. Your argument make no sense, they are fighting both for their survival and for their land. Legitimately. The idea that Ukraine is a lab for *old* western tech (as if that makes any sense whatsoever- that this would be some kind of evil way to test old weapons cloaked by the pretext of helping a country defend itself) is a ridiculous way to frame the conversation. None of this would be happening if Russia did not invade a neighboring country AGAIN. HOWEVER, unrelated to this issue, our elites (I guess in broad general way - you didnt bothered being specific) will leave a pretty bad legacy, especially if they kowtow to ruSSian fascism.
If you believe in Freedom why are you against the Donbas and Crimea attempting to be free from a Ukraine they did not vote to be part of?
Freedom for Donbas!
Freedom for Crimea!
Freedom for the NAZIs in Western Ukraine!
Ukraine how it was constructed prior to 2014 was stupid. Half the country hates the other half. The West pushed them to civil war and Russia is trying to end it. Simple as that.
For me, it’s long been a given that CRT is linked to the social engineering of our “hostile elite,” which in the context of The Occidental Observer means powerful Jews and Jewish organizations who rule over America and much of The West.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
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You should give up the curated filth of war porn and instead mourn the tragedy that is this war. In a few years that will be very little affection for the US policy makers that used it as a bloody, disposable battering ram against Russia.
“Oh how fond they are of the book of Esther, which is so beautifully attuned to their bloodthirsty, vengeful, murderous yearning and hope.” — Martin Luther
Russia has five times as much artillery as Ukraine. According to zelensky. Russians are dying at five times the rate of Ukrainians. So obviously each Ukrainian shell is 25 times as deadly as a Russian one.
What utter nonsense. Virtually nothing you say here survives any scrutiny. Saying it, in what is essentially a well researched, logically argued, academic environment simply amplifies it's fallacies. Talk about taking a knife to a gunfight.
You just wrote absolutely nothing. What a waste of internet signal. What scrutiny? That of ridiculous Rushist propaganda infused maniacs?
Substack an academic environment? Hahahahhaha you’re a joke. Say something concrete instead of just platitudes before invoking some supposed intellectual superiority. You came to this “gun fight” nothing but a hurt butt from having your propaganda bubble burst.
Literally everything that you wrote is a lie but considering your comment: "It’s only in times like this when I read lies from traitors that I wish the West was more like Russia" it is clear that you are ideologically possessed.
How is it clear? Say something meaningful. Try. I said what I said because it’s true. Similarly to when I want to eat a whole chocolate cake. I want to do it and it would be so sweet but I dont do it because it would be bad for my health. In the same way it’d be so sweet to see you locked up (like the antiwar activists in Russia) for being traitors not only to your respective countries but also to your whole civilization, however it would be bad for our societies so we should restrain ourselves.
1. I recommend you read Mr. Mearsheimers article before writing the comment. (You don't have to, if you are a CIA provocateur.)
2. Do you still watch MSM, or did you just confused the words? NOT Russians, but Ukrainians are leaving their dead to rot on the fields, Ukrainian troops are complaining the command doesn't take care of them, and the Ukrainian government make extra money by allowing the Western "humanitarian" organizations to do organ harvesting (coordinated by the American wife of Shakashvili, the governer of Odessa, who escaped to Ukraine after his government in Georgia failed) - Ukrainian government sells even the organs from their own soldiers, even if they don't have mortal wounds, without soldier's or relative's consent, and they are especially cruel with Russian soldiers (a Ukrainian doctor boasted on social media he doesn't sedate Russian soldiers). Greed has not limits. See Ukrainian laws adopted in 2021 and 2022, in order to legalize organ harvesting without consent.
3. You can find a lot of sources in Rumble, with keywords "organ harvesting". And try "child trafficking" too, see what Tim Ballard from OUR Rescue has to say.
4. Ukraine under this regime is heaven for the Western scum of all sorts. Even from the highest levels (Joe Biden and his son Hunter, Burisma, biolabs, etc.) - Zelensky sold Ukraine on the on-line auction.
5. I recommend listening to the Western politicians more closely and carefully. And you might realize, that they are not only warmongers, but they dream about nuking Russia (see Liz Truss' statement). If Russia wanted to nuke us, they would do so a long time ago.
6. War is not a football or computer game! People die there! (And animals die and the land is devastated).
7. My heart is with people of Ukraine who suffer under such reckless government and even more reckless interference of the rotten West... I wish Mr. Mearshimer stressed more, how corrupt the West is.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
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There are multiple sources suggesting loss rate of 7:1, which is 7 Ukrainians for 1 Russian. Your "support of Ukraine" doesn’t help the Ukrainians. Also this an international audience, which doesn’t care about your Slavic feuds, our concern is how Western democracy is failing to represent its own people.
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
I have no idea how the war is going to pan out, who will 'win', what it will look like, but I do know Russia has nuclear weapons, a lot of them, and so any attempt to defeat it it is simply madness. There is no other word for it. It is madness. Biden is the mad fella, surrounded by mad fellas. There is no 'win' to be had here; just two sides, one of whom will have less of a defeat than the other. One child will cut off the other's arm, the other child cut off the first's leg, then they'll argue who won.
One thing I would question is the perceived wisdom that Russia has a 10:1 advantage in artillery. What does this actually mean? How is it calculated? Is that number of artillery units? How much explosive can be delivered in a particular time period e.g. per day? I see video after video of pockmarked fields, caused by Russian munitions that clearly aren't particularly well guided, if at all. This ordnance seems to do remarkably little damage other than to larks nesting in the open plains. If Russia had a 10:1 advantage in effectiveness of artillery, surely they'd be in Poland by now? The two sides are more or less stalemated, which may suggest 90% of Russia's artillery fire is useless?
I am mostly interested in the 'west' which we know boils down to the USA. Why does it behave as it does? 'Manichaean' suggests good versus evil. That stuff is for small children or religious maniacs. Is the USA run by small children or religious maniacs? If it is, why? If it isn't, why does it act like it is?
John touches on the public position without going into the reasons how the USA (West) got there.
He mentions the sacrosanct "rules-based international order" but makes no reference to this being a myth. It has no legal standing. Not a word in a Word document. It means do as the USA tells you. Or else...
What is it about the USA that makes the country operate like the mafia, like an organised crime gang, like a drug cartel, deciding that the only route for it to take as a country is expanding its global market share through overwhelming violence, blood, murder, death, misery, destruction?
The USA is a democracy, at least notionally, so it could be argued that if successive governments over a period of decades – certainly covering the entire post-WWII period – act in the same vein, then the American voter must be to blame because they vote their leader(s) into government.
Or is the USA a failed democracy, a sham democracy where, no matter which 'party' gets elected to govern, there is an undemocratic omnipotent deep state running the country behind the scenes?
Or is it a mixture of the two?
In the 60s, the Vietnam War caused revulsion in a portion of the American people. A generation. Sure that's oversimplifying it, no generational consciousness is all-pervasive, but it was enough to be tangible, to gain international renown, and to hugely influence young Europeans and beyond.
Where has that revulsion gone? Where is the moral compass of the American people? Has it been lost through moral decay and apathy? Or has it been crushed out of them by the deep state?
I look back at Mearsheimer's words above:
"the West suddenly began portraying Russia as a dangerous foe"
"Moscow now appears to be seen as an existential threat"
"Western leaders frequently portray the Ukraine war"
"the West treats Russia as an existential threat"
Portrays. Appears. There was also a 'couched' I couldn't be bothered to copy down.
The West 'treats' Russia as an existential threat. The word 'treats' carefully chosen by Mearsheimer. He could have written 'sees', and the fact that he didn't speaks volumes, because the West doesn't see Russia as an existential threat (because Russia isn't one, if you'd just stop poking the bear), but the West (USA) does treat it as one, and it does portray it as one.
There's a lot of portraying and appearing going on for the American public to try to see through.
Many do, of course. In fact one of the surprising things about the Ukraine war to this European is just how perceptive many American citizens are about it; how much they see through the lies and say so. Europeans lap up the propaganda like good little sheep and repeat what they're told to. Bah. Soon they'll hate the Chinese as well, but have absolutely no idea why. "We just do". Bah.
How easily led we are to hate other people based on labels. Russian. Chinese. And yet how we portray (there's that word again) ourselves as good people. We used to portray ourselves as good people because we lived in (purported) Christian countries. Now we portray ourselves as good people because we live in (purported) democracies. I'm not a Christian but it seems I have a higher opinion of Christ than many Christians do because I don't believe Christ was full of hate for strangers, I don't believe a true Christian is full of hate for strangers, and I don't allow myself to hate a total stranger based on nothing else than an accidental event like his or her place of birth.
The West is heading rapidly into fascism and in some ways has arrived there. The requirement to conform to the 'rules-based order' world view. Do they not listen to themselves, Blinken, von der Leyen? Do they not hear how fascistic 'rules-based order' sounds? Would those kids on campus in the 60s have been able to grow their protest movement today in a climate where a different opinion is deemed by the state to be 'disinformation', and where the likes of Mearsheimer and Hersh are cancelled by GCM (Government Controlled Media) and forced onto the likes of Substack instead? I'm doing those kids a disservice by even suggesting it. They acted. Protested. They got murdered by the Ohio National Guard at Kent State University. But the climate is becoming more oppressive, more fascistic, in more subtle ways, like freezing or seizing your financial assets. No, you haven't been shot dead on campus, sure, but it's still the state carrying out a crime against its citizens.
Two years ago I'd have laughed at the idea I lived in a fascist state. Eighteen months of televised lies, daily, without fail, orchestrated by government, can change a man's opinion of his country.
What next, America? How about giving us the names of those responsible for the Ukraine disaster? I'm pretty sure it was John Mearsheimer that told us that Bill Burns was opposed to NATO expanding into Ukraine. I can quickly see Burns on record in 2008 as advising Condoleeza Rice against it. As such, it's hard to think that the Director of the CIA is in any way responsible for the Ukraine disaster. But someone or some people orchestrated it from the US side. Who are they?
Come on, America. Give us their names. Don't get yourself handed a libel suit. Do your research. Facts facts facts. Quotes quotes quotes. But give us their names, please, because those responsible should be put on trial for warmongering in the International Criminal Court.
Some very good points here Sladkovian. I appreciate it....and it wasn't too long for me to read.
One point on the artillery 10:1 and fields full of pockmarks comment. One way the 10:1 can be estimated based on rate of fire. However if you are short of shells, as the Ukrainians are, then that would underestimate one side's capability. There are also estimates of the number artillery pieces generally available and estimates of the production of such weaponry by reputable sources.
Regarding the suggestion of inaccuracy of bombardment. Rembere what appears to be random pockmarks in fields can be directly due to targeting of troops who may have been running into/or down the field during the shelling. Additionally some pieces of artillery are less accurate than others in the first place.
Finally, the idiot on here called Ljubomir is a troll and a spoiler for a fight character. You occasionally come across these folks and there is no point debating with them. They always resort to insults. To really annoy them just resist replying. They usually pick up very little or no support from participants.....just as the Ljobomir demonstrates in this thread.
Too long to read. Probably all nonsense just like the assertion that Russia cannot lose a war because it has nukes. What a ridiculous conclusion devoid of any historical context. Nuclear powers lost many wars, including existential ones (the Afghanistan war basically set the stage for the Soviet collapse). Furthermore, the West has nukes too. So did Ukraine before it foolishly gave them away believing that Russia would not invade. Sad.
I was dissuaded from reading after I came up to the first absurdity - Russians have nukes so they cant lose a war. Substack is for Russian useful idiots, trolls and conspiracy theorists. I came to burst your bubble. Obviously you know nothing about being an adult, being concise or even how to think. I dont need to stick to twitter. You need to learn how to transform your word salads into a succinct, relevant and reasonable paragraph.
Sure Russia cannot loose this war because it has nukes. The perception that today's Russia has of the war against the nazi regime in Ukraine is completely different from the perception that the Soviet Union had of the Afghan war. Russia from the top to the bottom is united in the conviction that the nazi regime in Kiev and its NATO backers must be defeated lest Russia will be destroyed. Nobody in the Soviet Union really believed in the Afghan war, not even the top leadership. The final decision to enter the war was made solely by Breshnev and Gromyko on weak convictions of not wanting to keep a geopolitical position that they felt was in danger of being taken over by the West. But the entire leadership knew full well that drawing them into a quagmire was the West's goal. In the end they were still able to extricate themselves much better than the West was able to extricate itself from its own Afghan quagmire years later. Soviet troops made an orderly reatreat from Afghanistan and left a regime in place that was able to hold out against the Taliban. Only the collapse of the Soviet Union itself put an end to it. NATO forces fled from Afghanistan head over heels, people falling from airplanes they clung to. The regime that the West had installed finally lasted not more than a few days although its weapons stores were still chock full.
Russia has the means and the resolve. If it comes close to loosing the conventional war, then it will use nukes just as Mearsheimer says. The preconditions are already fulfilled according to Russian doctrine, even according to Putin's own words cited by Mearsheimer. Ukraine and the West want to destroy Russia. Disregarding doctrine, the Ukrainian regime is committing acts of mass destruction (blowing up the Kharkova dam) and genocide (sending minorities as cannon fodder to the front). It more than deserves nukes being used on it.
You people don't know your anus from a hole in the ground . . . the Jews started this war . . . Zelensky is an Israeli operative . . . Biden is just a Zionist Jew puppet . . .
Svoboda/Pravy Sektor and the like are nazis by another name. Having a nominally Jewish puppet spokesman is window dressing. No ethnic or religious group is so monolithic that you can judge the entire group from the actions of one individual member.
Kind of obvious that you are unfamiliar how artillery works. The reason why you see all those craters in the field is because you have to fire a first salvo then correct the fire. As for 10:1 ratio read the RUSI report.
I do understand it, at least in theory. It just appears Russia is heavily reliant on old systems that are largely ineffective. You're right, I'm not familiar with individual systems, but those Grad launchers that fire off 40 rockets into the middle of a field look inefficient. Then you have the correction. But how efficient is it? How is it calibrated? What is the minimum adjustment you can make? 100 metres? 10 metres? 1 metre? Then you have line of sight to consider. If Russian artillery has no line of sight, they're firing blind aren't they, so 10:1 ratio is meaningless in those circumstances. Assuming no line of sight (e.g. where frontline is on the steppe), correction must come from 'spotter' drones, right? Does Russia have a 10:1 ratio of those drones? I doubt it.
Which RUSI report? And if you have read it, why can't you just summarise it in a few lines for the readers to understand? Sounds like you have clear understanding of it.
And if Russia does have a genuine 10:1 artillery advantage, and by that I mean in terms of effectiveness (not just numbers of units), and Russia has air superiority to a degree, why is it that the Russian military appears to find advancing so hard to achieve?
Sure, there is the attrition theory, that Russia just blazes away and doesn't need to go forward, that eventually every single Ukrainian will be dead and then Russia can advance all the way to Poland on skateboards and shopping trolleys, completely unopposed. But evidence of the last 16 months makes me sceptical that will happen.
Russia has made several major retreats:
1) Conceded vast amounts of territory in the early weeks, quickly retreating from Kiev, which was the right move. Shocking Kiev into an early surrender was worth a try, to try to conclude the SMO as bloodlessly as possible. I don't see this in a negative light.
2) Retreated from Kherson. To avoid being cut off on the wrong side of the Dnepr. Again this was the right thing to do as Russia had initially bitten off more than it could cope with logistically, and I don't see the retreat across the Dnepr in a negative light.
3) Kharkov oblast. This was a mess and it is impossible not to see it in a negative light. I thought Russia would retake ground at least to the first river (Oskol?) this winter, but it hasn't even done that, never mind recover ground back to the second river to the west. They haven't even reached Kupiansk yet.
I don't have the feeling that Russia can afford a fourth major retreat, and I sense NATO 'going for the kill'. If it did happen, Russia will have to consider conceding Ukraine, or escalating. I don't want to think about the implications: I don't see Russia conceding. So far it has been NATO escalating, incrementally. But Russia can escalate too.
Or do you think Russia can just motor on in the same vein? Time is on their side? Eventually NATO will do what NATO do every time and realise their campaign has been totally pointless and cost trillions of dollars and they will just pack up and go home, leaving the country they had supposedly 'rescued' in ruins, millions of people dead?
I try not to pay attention to who has taken which piece of ground in a day any more. Or even in a week, or a month. It even doesn't matter where the territorial split is after 18 months. All that matters is who has which territory at the end, whenever the end is. Mearsheimer talks about resolve. There is no parity of resolve. This is existential for Russia and Ukraine. An idiot might portray it as existential for the USA, but it isn't.
One point on the "territory" question of war. You can take territory but can you hold it? You can also take territory and hold it but at what cost?
When the Russians retreated from Kharkiv it is my understanding the area was not heavily concentrated with Russian or DNR forces to defend against the effective (and highly motivated) Ukrainian onslaught. As you note the retreat from Kherson was strategic and while folks like Peter Zeihan waxed on about huge Russian equipment and troop losses, these did not really occur. It was a great example of pulling out men and serviceable equipment with minimal losses.
However my main point here is that I believe the territory is secondary in the Russian's mind to the grinding down of Ukrainian men and equipment. The carnage currently going on is taking a massive toll on Ukrainian resources that they can ill afford to lose. Indeed, they make take a few more settlements and territory in the coming weeks, but the losses they are incurring are disastrous. Imagine being a newly conscripted Ukrainian, given little training , and then told to advance on Russian positions under murderous artillery and drone attacks. These folks are not going to be effective (unless there are 10 more of them to the defenders facing them).
Russia is now churning out weapons in increasing amounts while Ukraine is consuming precious amounts. This can only end one way.
I replied to Mark H elsewhere on the gaining/losing/ceding of territory.
But to summarise, I don't think the Russians can afford a fourth retreat without striking back with overwhelming force and reclaiming all the ceded ground and possibly then going on the offensive and gaining more ground.
They will just run out of territory to cede if they keep ceding it. The idea that they can recreate the Battle of Kursk (is that right battle?) is great in theory, but at some point Russia has to successfully re-enact it – suck the Ukrainians in and then wipe them out – not just keep saying that they can.
And of course Kursk was enacted before the time of NATO spy satellites observing every tree along every hedgerow in Ukraine. Could the same grand deception/manoeuvre be executed by Russia today? Surely not?
Russia's biggest mistake for me (apart from the disastrously messy Kharkov retreat) was booking flights and packing their suitcases for their summer holidays after the taking of Popasna, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. It's the only time they've had the Ukrainians on the run in this conflict beyond the initial invasion. There was no element of surprise. Just hard military graft. Ukraine looked in disarray at that time and Russian forces were within a couple of miles of Seversk. I've heard it said that Russia didn't have the numbers to keep pressing forwards but I wonder about that. Momentum seems incredibly hard to get going in this conflict. Once gained, allowing it to slip through your fingers appears to prove very costly. A year on, Russia is still a few miles from Seversk, in fact it has lost that particular Belogorovka.
Now I'm sure someone will come along and tell me why I'm wrong.
I've seen it written in the last few days – possibly by Scott Ritter – that the Popasna area was where Wagner first came to the fore. That's not my recollection at all. Pretty sure the two main elements of Russian go-forward in that area were the Russian military's 'O' grouping, and the Chechens.
I don’t expect further Russian retreats, but they’re in no hurry to advance either — I think the current arrangement suits them both tactically and logistically. Let Ukraine and NATO deal with extended supply lines and an irrational drip-feed of uncoordinated weapons systems in insufficient quantities, eh?
I agree with you. I also said on some thread or other that the Russians cannot even afford to allow Bakhmut to fall back into Ukrainian hands. They of course can be satisfied with the losses they are inflicting on the Ukranians. I have seen more Ukrainian videos this past week show Ukrainian successful attacks of Russian men and equipment but they are few and far between. If I were the Russian military commanders I would be sending a message in time for that NATO meeting on July 10th. But of course I am not, I am just some guy who watches all this terrible carnage from the safety of my comfortable study room.
Kursk was a great battle win for the Russians but they took huge casualties (seen a few figures that said it was as high as 3:1 in favor of the Germans) and the German tanks killed far more Russian tanks than the Germans lost. But the Germans were overwhelmed by Russian numbers, fresh new T34 tanks coming onto the field almost daily and massive artillery availability. Not to mention shortage of fuel of the German side.
The reason they don’t need to advance is that the territory is not the point. Just like Mearshiemer says they need to crash Ukraine to make sure it is not a valuable NATO ally on the Russian border. Another factor is loss of soldiers - it is not easy to get replacements. He cannot get a lot of people from big cities, because they are better informed and will try to avoid it at any cost.
There are too many question to address so I will stick to a few. You don't fire the whole load of an MLRS into the void, you fire a few then you correct. There is nothing complicated about it, it has been done the same way with regular artillery for a century now, except that today it is computerized. They have drones for correction, from consumer grade to military grade. There is nothing ineffective about old systems, if you can land a shell near the target it is effective as any other. As for taking ground etc: besides the point of attrition warfare they will not take ground unless it is of strategic value. When you send your forces into a territory you have to build new defences and that takes time. My theory is that this war will not be over until the EU screams, Ukraine is just a battle ground in a much larger war.
Okay, thanks for sharing your artillery knowledge.
As for your final statement(s), I completely agree with the second part. I'm not sure what you mean about the first part. You seem to suggest that Europe screams and the USA listens? How does that tally with the USA taking out Nordstream? Seems to me the USA does what they want and if Europe screams then USA puts headphones on, or tells Europe to shut up. The USA could nuke Berlin and von der Leyen would be on TV denying it.
I don't see any pushback from EU citizens, who have been terrified into accepting the 'Ukraine good Russia bad' bedtime story.
They have been told that their gas bills are high because of Putin. Nobody asks for evidence.
It's hard to read anything European right now. Lies lies lies. There was something about Germany's central bank having a bond crisis. I didn't bother reading it, even though it might be the only true thing in European media this week.
So, yes, behind the scenes, if the central banks are creaking under the strain, senior European politicians cannot let their countries fail. I don't see any evidence we are approaching that point yet. They hid the evidence for Nordstream but they won't be able to hide evidence of financial meltdown from the financial markets. The UK already had a serious wobble around 8 months ago I think it was.
The one thing that will finish the current iteration of the EU is the removal of a veto for individual countries. Some of them will not accept it, and I'm not just thinking about Hungary. Others too.
Germany and France may push for the removal of a veto precisely to shake out some members they don't want in the club any more. I suspect that explains the timing. Probably just the usual threats. Can they afford for Hungary to leave their precious little reich?
Great that you are asking good questions and really thinking about this.
IMO you have to balance the conflict that Russia is engaged in within Ukraine with the conflict it is engaged in without. This is an aspect that John somewhat skirts around in the above. Ukraine is simply a proxy for that larger conflict.
US power rests on US miltary and financial strength. Those factors are codependent, and neither is quite as unassailable as most assume. (The US military industrial complex is generally bloated, somewhat corrupt and inefficient, and the US military hasn't won a conflict with a peer adversary since WW2. Financially, the US is a debt-ridden, dead-man walking, propped up by the facade of economic strength). Both factors rest on the confidence in them - the US is strong largely because of the perception that it is strong. If that perception were to fail (in one leg or the other) then the strength of the combination would crumble. That is what is currently at stake for the West here. China and the Global South understand that frailty. So does Russia, and a loss for the West here would be a milestone event in the decline of the US Empire.
Anyway, here are a couple of pieces you may find of interest regarding the conflict within Ukraine. I don't think you are quite getting the full significance of attritional warfare or the pivot that Russia made in how it prosecuted the conflict pre and post the rejection of the peace agreement (or the wider context of the conflict) -
I don't get the significance of this or that? It might be I just draw my own conclusions, or I simply wait to see how it all pans out. It's so unpredictable.
I'm trying to read less partisan stuff for a bit so Mearsheimer suits me. Honesty is the most valuable of treasures amid the sea of western lies.
I understand the wider context as well as anyone. Finance is my background.
So, yes, I agree with both yourself and with Dragan that the Ukraine war is actually a relatively minor part in a bigger drama. The bulk of the 'fighting' will be done financially. I was making this point myself over a year ago.
That's not to downplay the loss of life, most (not all) of which is a tragedy.
Mearsheimer is very thorough necessitating keeping his writings focused. I also look at Big Serge's from time to time. Another very thorough writer.
I'm sure we'd both agree that the main thing to keep an eye on is whether this putative dollar alternative that BRICS intend to come up with (do they really?) ever comes to fruition. I'm sceptical. It may well end up more like the renminbi increases its share as a reserve currency for the global 6/7ths?
Either way, de-dollarisation by the rest of the world will be fascinating to watch. Personally I don't think it will go as far as others might wish it to, but it may go far enough to give the USA a critical level problem to solve. Some might even describe it as existential but let's see if we get to critical first. We may have arrived without it being spelled out to people in black and white. Declaring the country is on the brink of ruin is not a good electoral move.
I can't remember the figures I saw a while back for percentages of USD as reserve currency holdings. I think for China USD was around 57%. I don't see this dropping below 50% but if China even dropped from 57% to 50%, that's a lot of dollar debt that China isn't buying up so can USA replace it? No?
The wider conflict or potential conflict doesn't get talked about enough. The potential clash with China especially. Nobody in the West appears to be asking what the evidence is for China being labelled a threat to the West.
The USA has suddenly decided in the past few years (it seems) to make a push for total hegemony; to wipe Russia and China off the chessboard.
The big question is why.
And the only answer I can come up with is America's ticking debt bomb. It's going to blow. The USA is living way beyond its means, refuses to reverse, and the only answer to not being able to buy other people's stuff is for the USA to just go in and take it by military force. You Syrians got oil, that's ours now. You Ukrainians got wheat, that's ours now. You Chinese got everything else, we're taking everything else. You got nothing. We got everything.
It's a suicidal trajectory. Or so it seems to me.
USA has many ingenious people. Why can't the country just trade, not kill?
Yes I agree with what you say in general. I started off reading several folks but over a few months last summer I began to believe that the Institute for the Study of War (and the BBC, Newsweek, CNN etc) were clearly not telling it as it was. The propaganda machine in the West is Faaaarrrrrr superior to the Russian one. I now believe nothing that comes out of Ukraine, 50% of what I see in the West and 75% of what comes out of Russia (just roughly speaking). Indeed it is for this reason plus my research into the origins of Ukraine and this war, that I am now siding with the Russian perspective. Until the early 2000s I was a die hard NATO supporter. I also thought the USA generally did the right thing. After the disastrous recent wars in the Middle East, I am now convinced the West is on the wrong track and that people need to wake up and fast.
I agree with most of that. I shared those two specific articles because they are pretty neutral, tightly written and quite informative. Your comments about the apparent retreat of Russian forces suggests to me that you do not quite fully get the "war of attrition" issue? (Yes to give up ground without gaining in relative strength is still a loss, but there seems to be much evidence that Russian forces have established a meat grinder here which hast cost Ukrainian forces dearly). You simultaneously say that those 3 retreats were the right thing to do, yet then say it cannot afford a 4th? Why not? That is precisely the point of attritive warfare, the territory is the theatre, not the scoreboard.
But yes, I completely agree about waiting to see the realities. There is too much "noise" here (by design) to know anything with great confidence.
Sadly, the US has lived beyond its productive abilities for years and is now so debt burdened that it probably needs to exploit 3rd parties to keep the illusion going. Classic late stage empire practices. Very sad.
I said 2 of the 3 retreats were the right thing to do. The third (Kharkov oblast ) was unplanned and damaging to Russia's operation. I won't try to qualify or quantify that. But it was damaging.
Yes, I did spot that apparent contradiction but I left it in.
The reason I don't think Russia can afford a fourth retreat is more to do with morale than anything. Russia can't keep going backwards in the eyes of the Russian public. They seem prone to panic, from what I've read over the last year or so, which Ukraine attempts to exploit by inventing fairy story successes every day.
As a caveat to the above, I have read reports of Russians panicking on Telegram. From what I saw of Prigozhin's 'protest march', there was no panic 'in real life' on the streets at all. The clip of the streetsweeper sweeping rubbish around Wagner personnel will become iconic, I think. So I imagine any panic is overplayed and mainly limited to social media. My perception of Russian people - of whom I have met very few – is that they are prone to being resigned, which sounds a bit negative. Let's say 'stoic' instead. It's impossible to generalise about entire populations, but I'd suggest stoicism as a Russian quality, although this could be as stereotypical as suggesting Italians like flirting and riding scooters.
I came across one Russian lad in Tbilisi, a tourist, who I would describe as 'jovial' (despite an undeservedly cold reception from Georgian hotel staff), and I remember a young woman in London who worked in IT who I would describe as 'a total professional'. Two perfectly normal people, which is why I detest Russophobic language and the people that use it.
I've read – more like skim read – a few articles (possibly by Big Serge) which theorise how these strategic retreats have worked in past military conflicts, to set up crushing counter-offensives. I'm just sceptical that because something worked in the past that means it will necessarily work again. So, yes, if you concede ground while losing 20k men but the opponent loses 40k men - let's assume parity of equipment loss – that logically means your chances of taking the ceded ground back again is much better than it was before. But there is theory and there is practice.
There's the question of trust. The military planners, the generals – having the benefit of studying military history – might understand losing ground to gain 20k personnel advantage. But do the rank and file? Easier to trust your officers when you're advancing.
The biggest reason for Russia not overplaying the strategic retreat card is running out of territory. If they retreat from Kherson they offer a foothold in Kherson. If they retreat on the southern front they lose the nuclear power plant and the kind of sandwich filling layer above Crimea could get squeezed so hard that they have to pull out of Kherson entirely. If they retreat in Donbas what was Soledar and Bakhmut for? if they retreat much further in Kharkov they'll be retreating into what westerners might term 'Russia itself'.
I'm struggling to see where Russia could even play a 4th retreat card without things starting to look stark for the whole SMO, unless any supposed overwhelming counteroffensive is carried out fast.
ps – do we believe this is actually John Mearsheimer's substack? There is so much fake stuff on the internet I start to doubt everything. I guess it probably is genuine. And if it isn't...
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Please refer to the stated objectives of the SMO and not to Western propaganda when you analyze the situation. The aim is to destroy the military potential (demilitarization) that threatens the Donbas and not to conquer territory. The territory conquered by the Russians is just a byproduct of destroying the military potential. Once the enemy forces collapse, the regime will have to come to the negotiation table, or risk loosing more territory.
Since it is clear that NATO/Ukraine cannot win this war and that the U.S. public appetite for sending endless hundreds of billions of $ to Ukraine is rapidly waning, something has to give sooner rather than later. Biden and the neocons are up against forces from within the Democratic party (RFK) and the Republican party (Trump) to end this thing. Time is not on NATO/Ukraine's side.
Even beyond the diminishing willingness of the U.S. public to continue funding this disaster, there is the simple economic part of it that says we just can't do it. An open-ended spigot of money flowing to Ukraine while there are so many problems at home isn't politically tenable, especially in an election year; and the fact remains that someone has to pay for all of this.
Biden cannot afford for this war of attrition to be dragging on in an election year, therefore we either have to throw in the towel and accept what that implies for NATO and the U.S., or it goes nuclear.
I greatly fear the latter. The neocon dream of carving up Russia is a religion. For them to admit defeat will shatter their cult. Losing political power will finish them, and they know it. It's now or never for them. I believe they are insane enough to push for nuclear war.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol X – Preparing for Power . . . (((SARS-CoV2)))
❝. . . utterly exhaust humanity with dissention, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, by the inoculation of diseases. by want, so that the “Goyim” see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else.❞
The neocons found a perfect hand puppet in Biden. And with the election looming Biden is desperate for a major victory to boost his dismal poll numbers. He is hell bent on cementing a place in history as a great leader using this proxy war as the vehicle to achieve that goal and taking advice from the same people whose failures in past global conquests are numerous and predictable. There is no “new and improved” neocon 2.0. It’s rehashed strategy and scheming that is doomed to fail spectacularly again. The shine is already wearing off for many Americans who supported our involvement initially but now see it as a drain on our economy and squandering many billions of dollars that could have been spent (misspent) domestically. The only beneficiaries are the builders of the war machine and the corrupt oligarchs siphoning from the tanker loads of cash sent halfway around the world to a country most Americans couldn’t find on a map 3 years ago.
Yep, Ukraine will collapse and the west are faced with another humiliating defeat , or , intervene like they did in 1999 in Kosovo ; if its the latter then that will be the last mistake they make in this war
A key feature of declining empires is catastrophic military blunders at the end. This truly could be their Waterloo. The endless middle east wars, horrible as they were, at least provided oil flow into the homeland and retained dollar hegemony. Such a bounty is not happening with this most costly adventure. The Ukrainian project I'm sure is intended to force regime change and provide the flow of Russian commodities into the control of the globalist empire. However, the odds are that this is simply not going to happen. Crashing empires don't typically reverse course and start thriving again. The wild card is that we've never really had a failing empire in possession of nuclear weapons before.
All the warning signs are there, insomuch, catastrophic loss of judgement by educated idiots with a proven rack record of failure
It's clear to any sensible person that we a flogging a dying horse in Ukraine , but they are so deluded and blinded by bogus Globalist ideology ..maybe a darwin award is our fate
I see what you're saying. I would still argue USSR wasn't really a global empire like the Romans or the USA. They never had a magnificent 'homeland' that was the envy of the world. They were always stuck in the quicksand of communism. They never really rose to the level where they were controlling most of the world's commerce. Their downfall didn't throw the rest of the world into total chaos. For example, the dollar remained the world reserve currency. It is amazing though, that their collapse was as peaceful as it was.
The reason they didn’t control the world was not ideological. It was material. In fact, their ideology put them in a position to survive against the Nazis after being a backwards feudal nation only 20 years prior to WWII.
It is truly remarkable what Tsarist Russia turned into under communist rule.
Their problem was that the US was the sole survivor of WWII. The economic destruction foisted on the Soviets by the Nazis set them in perpetual catchup mode, forcing the Soviets to spend far too much on weapons they would not have needed to if the globalist, liberal capitalist scum weren’t hellbent on destroying human progress in the name of profit by any means necessary.
You cannot say you are anti-globalist if you are a capitalist, as globalism is capitalism on steroids.
You talk about the globalist desire to extract Russian commodities, but conveniently ignore that this is exactly how the globalists operated against the Soviets when they sent troops to Russia 100 years ago, and during the Cold War.
Globalism is capitalism, and capitalism is what is preventing progress.
According to Col Douglas MacGregor, one becomes a general by telling the civilians what they want to hear. So the military is no brake on these very naive activities.
Carving up Russia always was a long shot. They would do it if they got half a chance. In the meantime, they cut relations between Europe and Russia for good to prevent a hegemon on the Eurasian "heartland" that would make the US presence in Europe superfluous.
On the downside, they have created an even bigger hegemon by forcing the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, but I guess that still beats losing Europe. As US loses its grip on the rest of the world, it'll tighten its grip on Europe to squeeze the last Euro (or drop of blood) from the old continent before dumping it in the trash bin of history.
On the part of the Americans this is good business and very rational. What is puzzling is why European leaders would want their own destruction. Some sort of death wish, perhaps?
How many self-inflicted blunders can a regime survive? The “China Shock”, Iraq War, the 2008 Financial Meltdown which led to the formation of BRICS, now this proxy war in Ukraine running concurrently with a Debt Trap and de-dollarization - an entire generation of Americans have only known debacles and decline.
Yes it is quite sad Kevin. I have had a great life and "theoretically" have a comfortable retirement underway. However my Millennial kids , though well educated, are having a much tougher time than I did. The GenZ are screwed both mentally and economically.
It will be very rewarding when the capitalist system collapses and we install socialism on its corpse. You’re right. Then the world will finally know peace
Peace doesn’t come from any economic system or formula. I also don’t even know how to categorize our current system; state capitalism, corporate socialism, corporatism? We have a command economy run by an oligarchy. There are legislative corrections to make, but we also need a shared moral consensus.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
When the economic decline starts to hit the middle classes, there will be social and political upheaval, which will provide the pretext for the Deep State to install some sort of totalitarian or fascist rule.
There is a question that looms large when I consider your premise.
If the US is as you say ideologically committed & believes it is facing an existential threat, and if it is likely to fail to achieve its goals, it seems left unsaid that the "west", or Ukraine, must reach a point of crying "uncle". This seems crucial to your prediction, to say the least. I must ask for more detail - without straying too far into the domestic political milieu, what does history & your framework imply would need to happen to reach that terminus? To put an even finer point on it, wouldn't the "west" need to reach a decision point where strategic disappointment is balanced against direct confrontation, and a choice is made? Or is the offramp elsewhere, somewhere even more dangerous?
PS speaking of crying "uncle", I recall with amusement the way you would bring up propaganda from WW2 and the rebranding of Stalin as "Uncle Joe". Great memories of your class - it has been knowledge I have made use of my entire professional life. Thanks!
Good comment. The idea of the west crying uncle, which US political leadership has ruled out, means either Ukraine itself cries uncle or some other unnamed (possibly invisible) actor forces the US to do so. And if it be not Ukraine, I think it would either be China - by invading Taiwan - or the CIA by pulling off some mysterious operation that scrambles the chessboard. As to the latter it wouldn't be even remotely the first time. Generally its strategic-level ops aim to foment conflict, not end it, but I can conceive of the CIA deciding the Rus-Ukr conflict has worn America's defense industry resources too far (or risks exposing their shortcomings), and must be stopped.
Military defeat in Ukraine does not pose an existential threat to the US. What does pose an existential threat to US hegemony is the backlash to the economic war the West launched against Russia. Thus, ending the war and the sanctions would help maintain US hegemony for a little while longer. After advising the US administration to arm Ukraine as primary means for "overextending and unbalancing Russia" in 2019, the latest Rand Corp. study on the war in Ukraine warns about the dangers of a prolonged war.
One point glossed over comes at the end of this brilliant piece.
It was Victoria Nuland, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, and many other members of Congress who instigated regime change in Ukraine, putting NEONAZIS on Russia's border in 2014. I do not blame Russia for how it reacted. If this were in reverse and it was the US this had happened too, it is a guarantee that the US would not put up with such a threat on its doorstep.
I'm reminded of Julian Assange who do eloquently said that US REGIME change wars are not meant to end, but rather it is a way to launder US taxpayer money.
I'M SICK of US wars that have killed millions and displaced millions more. That any American believes the endless propaganda to sell elite wars is simply disgusting
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel, Meta, Twitter, TikTok, Black Rock, Netflix, Amazon, and More . . .
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
Great analysis, as expected from this author. The thing that needs to be understood is that none of this has anything to do with legitimate US defense needs, it is all so much imperial aggression.
The US has badly overplayed its hand here. The sanctions regime is floundering, pushing even friendly countries to ignore it. This has further caused other nations to seriously consider an alternative to the USD as a reserve currency (it was already under pressure from US economically damaging policies), and to diplomatically align against the US. All in all it has made it ever more clear that the US is past peak empire.
What should be communicated to the American public is that all this means that they are set for economic decline, lower growth, and a cracking US fiscal position, in which decades of living beyond its means catches up to them. Perhaps then the domestic pressures will become great enough to reorient US policy. A thin reed to hang your hopes upon I know. Peace now.
Thank you for this piece John, which I throughly enjoyed.
Very difficult to know accurate numbers for the dead in this conflict. My own suspicion from reading widely is that the numbers are much higher and likely more skewed than 2:1 (probably greater than 3x dead on the Ukrainian side to the Russian side). There have effectively been 3 Ukrainian armies now, with the 2nd & 3rd iterations (as equipped by 3rd parties) progressively lacking in experience/depth. That experience seems to matter a lot in terms of getting the best from the resources you have.
FWIW, BBC Russia has been trying to track the numbers of Russian servicemen killed and had a tally at just under 30k by the end of May. That probably doesn't include aligned forces (eg Donbass militia, Chechens, Syrians, overseas volunteers, etc) but it may suggest a crude ballpark total figure of ~50k? The Ukraine claims of >>100k seem somewhat exaggerated.
You reference a number of good pieces by Big Serge. Other good information and analysis sources are the substacks of simplicius76, imetatronink & bmanalysis plus the website of Larry Johnson (sonar21.com)
If you are writing follow up articles I would be very interested in how you interpret the power dynamics at play with the European countries. Yes, for now, the EU seems to be following the US' lead in all this. But is there a prospect that some states eventually say that the US' apparent objective to cut them off from Russia as a low cost & convenient supplier of resources, and from China as a major market and a low cost supplier of goods is too high a price to pay? Are they supporting the US strategy here because they still think it can prevail over Russia, but should Russia prevail over Ukraine (and therefore effectively over NATO and the US) do wiser heads start following alternative paths? Does a disarmed & weakened Europe see peaceful & mutually beneficial relationships with Russia and China preferable to following an apparently failing US empire?
The problem is that the "Putin's unprovoked war of aggression" narrative is so powerful that the pro-Russian faction in Europe has had to go into hiding to avoid being publicly slaughtered. They are still there and might come out when public anger over falling living standards removes current leaders from power. But it may well be too late by then. There is still a lot of prosperity in Europe and governments have gotten used to using state funding to compensate for economic losses during the pandemic. There are some protest parties like the AfD in Germany who have gained in the polls due to their opposition to the war. If the trend continues, governments may have to change course next year.
As usual, a very coherent and strong argument. My main disagreement is on your claim that Putin sees this as existential war - his actions speak otherwise. First, Russia is spending a very small fraction of its GDP on this war - most optimistically less than 5%. As a student of nation states, I am sure you know how states mobilize in existential wars. Assume that Soviet levels of spending in WWII (~60%) are beyond reach, they surely could match US level of WWII commitment at ~25%, for example. Second, he is not using Russia dominance in deep strike capability to wreck Ukraine. Russia could knock out Ukraine’s power production capacity in a day and completely collapse Ukraine’s economy the way US did to Iraq in 1991, but Putin has refused to do so (Fall and Winter campaign was concentrated on transformers as retaliation for Kerch bridge attack). Putin has also refused to strike bridges over Dniepr, which would sever Ukraine in half along Europe’s widest river, greatly undermining their logistics. All this leads me to conclude Putin is aiming for negotiations or a frozen conflict.
Yes you make a valid point here. Few really know what goes on in Putin's mind. One thing I am sure off though is that he is sharper by far than the deteriorating Biden and the bumbling lying fool Johnson put together (and squared).
Putin's soft approach has come under attack from nationalists in Russia; however, considering the international dimensions, he was right to use a gradual approach. The real war is economic and not military. If Putin had lost the support of major leaders from the Brics and the global South, the Russian economy would have tanked. As it is, only 15% of the world population support the sanctions.
Moreover, there was no appetite for a general mobilization and a war economy that would impact ordinary Russian when the SMO was launched. As the West's Russophobia increases and the concrete threat from Nato becomes more apparent to the Russian public, a general mobilization will find greater acceptance in Russia.
The SMO was to destroy the military potential of Ukraine to protect the Donbas and not to conquer Ukraine. Territorial conquest may be the consequence of the war, but it was never intended. As Nato escalated by rearming Ukraine, the partial mobilization was a proportional response.
It's important to understand that Putin only launched the SMO after having exhausted all diplomatic means for 8 years. And when he acted, it was with moderation.
I'm not Russian, but considering the US's actions during the last 30, the Russians are absolutely right to be concerned about an existential threat.
Everything mentioned in this article is true and valid but it only tells part of the story of why this conflict is so intractable. In fact when geopolitical pundits ascribe the conflict to these geopolitical issues only they are in effect providing a wafer thin veneer of plausible deniability for the political classes of the US, UK and EU. A majority of whom are thoroughly compromised and corrupted by their own or their political parties prior dealings with the cesspit Ukraine turned into through the 8 years of Obama..
Starting from the assumption that the US has been run by various criminal elites since at least Bush v1, and with the middle east/Afghanistan once again part of the Bush's sphere of corruption, from 2009 Obama's team gravitated to the Ukraine, particularly so after their North African and Syrian ventures went off the rails. In fact Obama's team along with the Democrats collectively made Ukraine their base for any number of murky operations. From straight laundering of foreign aid $ Billions (part of which was used to co-opt and make complicit the GOP), through to various Government and business frauds, natural resource extraction including illegal Uranium trades, human and drug trafficking and finally the illegal bioweapon labs and secret pharma testing, 8 years of Obama turned Ukraine into the toxic time bomb we see today. All of which is easily proven with open source research.
Is it any wonder there is bipartisan support for the war? Both the GOP and Democrats have made billions via the Ukraine and they would rather see the country erased than for the truth to be exposed. The Biden family corruption has exposed the tip of a very dirty iceberg. Congress tried to impeach Trump for merely asking Zelensky to look into corruption in Ukraine. Remember there were quite a few republicans in favor of impeachment, I wonder why...It is reasonable to assume it isn't limited to Congress. In fact politicians and parties in the UK and EU are equally compromised by activities in the Ukraine, we just haven't had much exposure...yet.
Will the penny drop with the citizens of the US, UK and EU that their political class are pushing war because they are compromised and corrupted by their dealings in the Ukraine? Highly unlikely until the pundit class start joining the obvious facts and calling out the hypocrisy and frankly evil immorality of the political elites most to blame.
The geopolitical issues are part of it. But seriously have we ever seen a collection of more desperate and aggressive warmongering amongst a vast swathe of political elites? Even Gulf War 2 after 9/11 had dissenting voices. Where are the moderates? Forget dismissing this as conspiracy it's high time each and every politician pushing war PROVE to us that they have had not one dollar of benefit from the Ukraine in the last 15 years...Until they do we should simply assume they are compromised and corrupt and and are desperately hoping that a prolonged war either brings victory and narrative control or destroys any evidence of their prior corruption and malfeasance.
All those points are not part of his analysis. He is using the realist strategy for predicting the outcome. He has applied his theories to the Ukraine conflict for many years hoping to dissuade people of the folly of continuing NATO expansion to Russias borders. He has been as warning for some time the Based on his knowledge and of great power conflicts he has warned for some time that the results would be disastrous.
A core assumption in the realist strategy is rationality of actors. Due to their decades long corruption, fraud, secret kickbacks on aid and illegal bioweapon research in Ukraine and the risk of any of these being widely exposed, the actors from the so called `rules based liberal west' are no longer acting rationally.
My point is, it is far more intellectually honest to admit this fact than to simply ignore it and continue to promote a flawed strategy with a faulty core assumption.
I don't want to defend Obama, but I don't think he was a foreign policy hawk. Obama had no interest in foreign affaires. He left that to VP Biden. Obama avoided a full scale war in Syria and left Libya to France and the UK. He preached liberal democracy in Ukraine, but refused on provide lethal arms on the ground that Russia has "escalatory dominance" in Ukraine. It was the Deep State that made Trump arm Ukraine even though he hated it. The Trump affair shows that US presidents are powerless to implement foreign policy the Deep State doesn't want.
This is entirely the fault of the West who are going insane due to decadence and hedonism ; well I mean, picking a fight with the largest country in the world , with a people made paranoid and fatalistic by foreign invasions ; a country with the most Nukes ; what could possibly go wrong ?
Dr. Mearsheimer, it seems to me, is an optimist. There appears to be a high chance of the west loosing before russians winning. Will europe hold economically & socially? Isn't recent surge of AfD in germany an ominous symptom of "nationalists"getting on top of "globalist" (which is a current dichotomy instead of increasingly irrelevant left vs right dichotomy). everywhere in europe?
I would argue this dammed war will accelerate social divisions we are already seeing post covid, ESG and the current culture wars issues. Europe's social welfare states are becoming more expensive every year. At some point they will fail and the fallout will not be pretty.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol X – Preparing for Power . . . (((SARS-CoV2)))
❝. . . utterly exhaust humanity with dissention, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, by the inoculation of diseases. by want, so that the “Goyim” see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else.❞
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
Dear Mr Mearsheimer, thank you for shedding light on complex issues. However I notice that you devoted 9 paragraphs on the Russian goals and threat environment while you allowed 1 paragraph for the equivalent topic on Ukraine's side. The bulk of your analysis thus seems to be West vs Russia. While this makes sense (it's becoming a small planet afterall) to a degree I think one should not deny the Ukrainians agency in the matter, especially since, as you rightfully put it, they face an existential threat. It would be interesting to read more from you on the dynamics taking place within Ukraine both pre and post war. Ultimately it is hard to imagine a world where Ukranians wouldn't want some of what their European neighbors have: economic prosperity. Incentives matter. Thus they have agency in the matter.
Documents leaked from Soros’ “Open Society Foundation” show how the Jewish billionaire behind Hillary Clinton gave orders to the State Department and manipulated media coverage of events in Ukraine . . .
One doesn't exclude the other. Nothing in the National Vanguard article denies the Ukrainians agency in the matter. It shows the Dems egging on pro EU Ukrainians. Ukrainians by and large embraced these US efforts. Others might not have been that interested but THEY did. Doesn't that count for something? Ukrainians might be many things but they don't look like easily manipulated puppets to me. These people were interested in getting a life closer to what the Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Czechs and other Eastern Europeans have been having since they joined the EU.
I'm a Scandanavian . . . If the Russians exterminate every single Ukrainian, I'm o.k. with that . . . Zelensky is an Israeli operative and the Ukrainian Parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . The Jews started the war . . . fuck you and your Jewish god . . . FIGHT YOUR OWN WARS, YOU FILTHY LYING KIKE . . .
Ukraine had agency under Yanukovich who tried to get the best from the EU and from Russia. The US toppled him to install a US puppet regime. Elections don't mean anything in Ukraine.
The oligarchs got Zelensky elected on a platform of making peace in the Donbas. He made war because the far-right that controls Ukraine since the 2014 coup would otherwise have killed him. Today, he's a US puppet whose regime can only survive with the cash injections from the West. In exchange for the billions of dollars he has to lead his people to the slaughter.
❝. . . the present conflict is a huge distraction from the fact that, for decades, the biggest threat to Ukraine hasn’t been Russia, but financiers and speculators operating with impunity within Ukraine’s borders to exploit ethnic Ukrainians and plunder their resources.❞
Too many salient points glossed over.
Ukraine has been a "sovereign country" for all of 30 years, artificially created after the collapse of the USSR.
The "century" of mutual hatred you reference is limited to a couple western oblasts home to the Stefan Banderas Nazis who sided with Hitler. Those oblasts were historically part of Poland.
Russia's relationship with the Ukraine goes back hundreds of years. Since well before the Europeans genocided the native Americans. The oblasts Russia is likely to liberate were called "Novorossiya" when I was a kid. Catherine the Great founded Odessa. Go back far enough & Kiev was birthplace of the Rus & the first capital of Russia.
The war that "broke out" in 2014 was a US-instigated, $5B coup to oust the democratically elected president (who wanted to sign trade agreements with both the EU & Russia), to be replaced with Victoria Nuland's hand-picked, Russia-hating puppet government.
The oblasts that Russia "invaded" refused to accept Nuland's puppet government & declared independence, as is their right as declared by the UN ruling & precedent when Kosovo declared independence from Serbia sfter the US intervened there. Kiev's puppet government attacked the independent oblasts. As in Syria, the independent states asked Russia for help.
The damage to the German economy is primarily due to US mining of Nordstream, cutting off their access to economical natural gas. Nato on Nato attack.
You name Russia as the sole nuclear threat. That is laughable. They are very clear on their nuclear policy.
The US neocons are the ones who replaced MAD with "nuclear decapitation strike" on Moscow, back under W. Their sole goal in Ukraine is to position nukes close enough to Moscow to preempt a retaliatory strike. The policy continued under Obama, the US developed the fuze technology needed for such a strike.
Russia will win, hands down, & the "rump state" will likely be carved up, with Transcarpathia going to Hungary, Lviv to Pand, etc.
The US will have a hard time bringing weapons manufacturing back home. I seriously doubt China will be so foolish as to supply the rare earth materials needed to manufacture the advanced weapons so we can attack Taiwan.
The West will be fortunate to get out of this quagmire without triggering WW3 , as Ukraine is going to collapse ; then what? The West will be faced with a dilemma, insomuch, they will either flee Ukraine in a more humiliating debacle than Afghanistan, or, they will double down on failure by intervening like they did in KOsovo back in 1999... they would be insane to do it, but it wouldn't surprise me as the West have gone insane due to decadence, affluence and hedonism ... maybe triggering WW3 is just the inevitable Darwin Award the West have coming
The goal is war on Russia. Nuclear war. Nuclear war that the Maniacs think that they can win.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-7-world-wide-wars
What I am missing in this voluminous assessment of the future of this region, is the WEF. Is the stated need to reduce the global population. From both perspectives of "the great reset" and "build back better", the war in the region is a win/win situation for the legions of psychopaths that have long planned the present situation. The Russians are closer to Sun Tzu, as they are more deeply aligned with China - including its culture and history. Another author on Substack reminded people of the work that I have also urged those interested in understanding where all this is heading to read: "The Russian-China Double Helix" (https://www.sott.net/article/290554-The-Russian-Chinese-Double-Helix-Unprecedented-alliance) from 2014 is the most comprehensive and insightful work regarding the fusion of Russia and China in order to prevail against western hegemony.
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Decadence and hedonism is hardly a west only problem when it comes to world leaders. But nice try.
NATO = NORTH ATLANTIC TRANSGENDER ORGANIZATION
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
https://nordfront.se/nato-en-antivit-och-familjefientlig-institution
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
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It’s concerning. I’ve wondered are there elements that are seeking to undermine the US. Ukraine is attractive because it is a place where corruption is facilitated. A massive chunk of the funding is being siphoned off. It seems like there is a raiding of the US treasury going on with no regard for the unsustainable debt. In COVID too a massive wealth transfer with no regard to what all this is doing to the country. The mass immigration too. I wonder at times if there is a demolition going on such the US collapses under its own weight the country will be ripe for the pickings and easy to install more authoritarian rule. Just a theory. It just seem all too convenient if one wanted to facilitate a global governance structure that could toss aside the constitution. That incredible document.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Best comment on here. The US and the west in general are the ones undergoing some kind of Bolshevik homo cultural revolution and probably economic collapse. Not Russia. It sure seems like at least Russia has leaders that are loyal to their own country. Their nationalism doesn't really look like a weakness as far as I can tell. In the west, we currently have no national consensus and no ability to respond to any real threat. We are run by "leaders" that are literally working to destroy the country that's provided them with such a horn of plenty while they loot what's left of the treasury. If the US suffers economic collapse, I doubt if half the country will be motivated to lift a finger to help save the major institutions, kind of like what happened in the Soviet Union.
The West have became a parody of the final years of the Soviet Unions, while Putin's Russia has morphed into a traditional nation state .... in 30 years the political poles have reversed
I remember growing up, we used to laugh at the Soviet system, and rightfully so I guess. But history is a joker and now the joke's on us.
Remember how we laughed at Pravda? Baghdad Bob?
Now we have our own!
I used to listen to the Shortwave in the 70s, where I could hear the radio services of many countries. Radio Moscow strived to provide accurate reporting on any number of issues many of which, yes, yes, were "Anti-American", like the plight of the American black man, the war ON Vietnam, their many coups and assassinations. There was no need to lie and history has shown me that they did not. RFE and VOA OTOH? Just nonsense, war propaganda for low info heavily propagandised Americans, Brits, and Canadians.
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
The 2020 election was a Flu d'etat by Dem Bolsheviks , and they don't ever intend to lose power again as they have developed a way to rig US elections
These Dem radicals intend to transform America like the original Bolsheviks did to Russia ; 2020 is their 1917 moment , their ground zero , or Germinal !
Agreed. It's a big moment in time. Look at how catastrophically and for how long the Bolsheviks screwed up Russia. Ditto for Mao over there in China. Even though Americans have taken this all on the chin so far, it's by no means a done deal yet. Targeting the Great American Redneck as the enemy is a going to be a pretty tough piece of meat for them to chew. People have had just about enough of their bullshit and their magic wand printing press is starting to go flaccid. They've picked too many fights at once in my opinion. Poking the bear with one stick, declaring war on conservatives, killing citizens with a laboratory pathogen, killing more citizens with a deadly shit shot, attacking allies (e.g, blowing up the NS2), sanctioning half the world, and even pissing off China. Yikes. I don't know how many people are finally awake, but a hell of a lot more than in early 2020, that's for sure.
What is your definition of "screwing up"? Does it include for example the industrialization, over the course of just ~10-15 years, of the almost purely agrarian country into the one that managed to withstand the German invasion during WWII thus not allowing to genocide tens of millions of slavs as subhumans?
They have picked the fights for a reason. The reason is they wish to destroy what is left of the USA and Liberty.
They are trying to rewrite history, make the rest of the world look on the American experiment in self governance as a thing to be avoided at all costs.
It is narrative writing and the Communists in our midst will do everything and anything to wipe us out.
I wouldn’t laugh. The Soviet system was so powerful that it put a rump version of itself in a position to win a war against us 30 years after it collapsed. The RF’s entire war doctrine was built on the leftovers of Soviet military and production culture.
When the Iron Curtain fell down the Bolshevik Jews all fled to the other side because they knew what the Russians would do to them after 100 years of communism.
The best thing about Russia getting Crimea back . . . Catherine the Great took it from the Turks… What happened right after Russia retook Crimea? The Russian FSB searched all the Turks living there . . . Why? Because NATO sponsors Islamist terrorism when it suits them to . . .
NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
I seem to recollect the Uncle Joe starved 11M Ukrainians when he ruled the USSR. Was he being led by Jews? Or could it have been that communism was just hitting its stride at that point, regardless of what brought about its existence?
Life in the USSR, for most people was not bad, not bad at all. Don't believe the old lies.
Useful idiot much there Bill? If you don't believe the right wing critics I strongly suggest reading Emma Goldman's Disillusionment in Russia, she was a left anarchist and strong supporter of Russian revolution who was eventually deported to Russia from the U.S. She did not enjoy her experience there and was actually there when the Knonstadt massacre of Russian anarchist sailors happened.
NATO = NORTH ATLANTIC TRANSGENDER ORGANIZATION
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
https://nordfront.se/nato-en-antivit-och-familjefientlig-institution
Lol.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
Join me on this enlightening journey by subscribing today!
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Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
I can agree with the part where US is ran be people not representing the people who elected them. But please don’t glorify the Russian nationalism, because what western propaganda says is actually true, Kremlin brainwashed people into pure animal state to get the war support.
Fight your own wars . . . Volodymyr Zelensky is an Israeli operative.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Warm regards,
Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
Fantastic analysis. Every word.
Mearsheimer is just "okay" on these matters, but is still far far better than the crazed and stupid warmongers who have their greasy fingers on all the buttons.
Bizarrely, he does not count America's war ON Afghanistan as one of the 'disastrous' wars. The Taleban offered to turn over former CIA operative Osama bin Laden both before and after 911.
Barak Obama's mentor Zbigniew Brzezinski (Mika’s father) was the monster in the Carter administration who armed and financed the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan to fight against the Soviets... after the Mujahedeen were armed with sophisticated weapons, the Soviets left, the result was the USA got 911, and women now can walk 3 paces behind the donkey, the Mujahedeen evolved into the Taliban, who evolved into Al-Qaeda, who evolved into ISIS/ISIL/Daesh . . . Brezinski, for all practical purposes, can be called the ‘Grandfather of ISIS.’
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
All true, but it is not all he did. Looks like he influenced the foreign policy direction towards Russia after USSR collapsed. He argued that Russia would not do well if it was cut off from Europe and the Black Sea, hence the idea of adding Ukraine and Georgia to the NATO.
You're full of bovine excrement.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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The war ON Russia started the day that "Bush" acting on direction from the Permanent Government, tore up the foundational ABM Treaty, thus laying the groundwork for a preemptive strike on the "Sovs" and of course, the "ChiComs".
The Ukrainian parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . Jewish U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D), great grandson of Jacob Schiff (who funded Bolshevism, Leon Trotsky, and the October Revolution from Wall Street) is following in his great grandfather’s footsteps by illegally trafficking weapons with Igor Pasternak, funding foreign conflicts abroad . . . And trying to get Syria for the oil pipelines by blaming the Russians for another false flag . . . ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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The Thirteen Families control Wall Street, Wall Street controls Ukrainian politics, and the Thirteen Families make Slavs kill each other.
You're cum drunk.
The United States government is a wholly owned subsidiary of the American Israeli Political Action Committee . . .
Volodymyr Zelensky is an Israeli operative, the Ukrainian parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . Jews Anthony Blinken and Victoria Nuland grew up in Ukraine.
Jew Biden has a cabinet full of Bolshevist Jews, two of which (Blinken and Nuland) grew up in Ukraine . . . this is another Jewish war against Russians, funded by the Mensheviks on Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange.
Absolutely excellent comment, Mary.
You are so right that Mearsheimer and a few other American scholars have been indulging in their own fantasies and self-concocted histories.
You're cum drunk.
One of the Ruzzian goals were to denazify Ukraine. When nazi Ruzzia invaded Ukraine in 2014 it was done by Russian nazis. They were in charge and the first Ruzzian puppet in charge was Pavel Gubarev.
Donbas have a big majority of ethnic Ukrainians as proven in the counting of people in Ukraine 2001. Photos show Donetsk in 2014. Ruzzian nazi propaganda portrait Donbas as a one big gang of Ruzzian supporters and its huge misleading info.
You make perfect sense to me. Said with much more precision than I could but that’s basically everything I have gleaned from the situation as well.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
Join me on this enlightening journey by subscribing today!
Warm regards,
Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
Stupid putin propaganda narrative
He’s not glossing over anything in his analysis. He is approaching this from the realist school of international relations. He is a well known realist and believes it gives the right predictions more often than not. The focus is on great power conflicts.
Did you actually read the article and give it some thought based on his academic position? I have differences of opinion with him on China but he makes sense according to his position/
Yes, I did "actually read the article" & give it some thought.
Note my first statement: salient *facts* that his article leaves out.
He can have his own academic opinion, but any opinion, academic or otherwise, is only as good as the facts that inform it.
And ignoring facts does not make them go away.
Was this the first time you ever encountered Mr. Mearsheimer? The essay suffers only from the curse that successful writers experience: having to repeat every single piece of history, opinion or data touching on an argument made about how the US is responsible for provoking the SMO, that led to the entirely avoidable catastrophe of a war, that may smolder ruinously in a region of the world, or destroy us all over the world.
Some of your salient facts aren’t essential to the argument in this essay. If every salient fact each of us could come up with we’re included, it would be even longer than it already is!
Nothing you mentioned was a revelation. I am familiar with every point you made, and I am certainly no expert. You fail to actually show how any of your points are required for an understanding of this argument. Address the argument.
Thank you.
Also, check out Glenn Greenwald’s System Update interview re: this particular essay. It’s on Rumble.
The whole interview requires a subscription to hear now. Glenn May release it for general distribution at some point if the interviewee agrees. Greenwald is an excellent resource for analysis and interviews on critical current events.
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
I would have to fortify myself with at least one pitcher of mint juleps to get any farther than paragraph one, sir.
If you read Mr. Mearsheimer’s work, please, draw on the great lessons from him on how to write and how to argue. I get lost in your diatribes.
FIGHT YOUR OWN WARS, YOU KIKESUCKING ZIONIST ASS-WHORE . . .
NATO – an anti-white and anti-family institution . . .
After the apocalypse of 1945, a number of global organizations have been formed with the aim of maintaining and expanding totalitarian liberalism. One of the earliest organizations formed for this purpose was the war alliance "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", or NATO, which can be seen as the military wing of globalism.
In addition to ensuring that Washington always has international support for its military campaigns, NATO as an institution is explicitly anti-white and explicitly dedicated to "racial justice" for racial aliens living in white countries. As early as 1999, NATO authored reports blaming nationalists for a number of modern problems and warning against the influence of nationalism.
In 2023, the war alliance held a summit at its headquarters in Brussels on race where the alliance's leaders pledged to fight "homogeneous attitudes" and to use NATO's "collective intelligence" for the purpose.
In fact, NATO is so dedicated to its anti-white agenda that it openly advocates that institutions must be reshaped to be "inclusive," in other words, restructured to be more anti-white, and consist of fewer white employees and executives.
https://nordfront.se/nato-en-antivit-och-familjefientlig-institution
As bad as the war has been for Ukraine, it will prove to be a blessing to the world as it has set in motion the end of the Globalist American Empire. The GAE sealed its fate when it cut Russia off from SWIFT. Every sovereign nation saw the dollar become a weapon, and now many are seeking alternative trade payment arrangements.
Over the long term that means the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Not a quick process, but it has already started. And that means the long term end of the empire. The GAE will not be able to print money and export most of its inflation aboard. Nor will it be able to afford its gigantic, inefficient military industrial complex.
All empires fall eventually, and the GAE is no exception to that rule.
I agree 100% with your second paragraph. However the key in the timeframe of course. There has to be an alternative to the USD. Lots of folks out there saying its BTC, its Gold...its a basket of commodities... I don't know but I suspect it will be a slow process over at least 10 probably 20 years. However they may be a Black Swan out there that drives things faster. I suspect it will be a painful process and not just for the USA. A multi polar world is going to face some terrible problems in the decade ahead. All the best to you.
The problems a multi-polar world will face will come almost exclusively from the death pangs of the American Empire. Empire's lash out as they collapse. Which seems to be exactly what the USA Empire is doing right now in multiple places around the globe.
The United States government is a wholly owned subsidiary of the American Israeli Political Action Committee . . . The Jews started this war . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
Join me on this enlightening journey by subscribing today!
Warm regards,
Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
Join me on this enlightening journey by subscribing today!
Warm regards,
Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
Well spoken. It is hard to accept the Great Eastern European Meatgrinder as the price to pay for this, and I'm barely affected in any direct way, but end this empire must.
Very good analysis by John Mearsheimer. I have seen many articles condemning John's perspectives regarding the Russo-Ukraine war, however, on balance I support the analysis and have personally concluded that the West (primarily the US and the UK) has triggered the current war.
I fear that Ukrainian losses will mount very quickly as Russia gains strength and tests/adapts its increasing weaponry advantage. The current Ukrainian offensive is NOT gaining significant territory and those gains are at a tremendous cost. Compare the military video releases which during this offensive show terrible and daily Ukrainian battlefield losses and yet, compared to 2022 Ukrainian defense and territorial counterattacks, there are very few Ukrainian videos show successful Russian losses. That alone sends a clear message.
During 2022 we in the West were continually told the Russian economy would collapse, the Ruble would collapse, the Russian army and airforce would collapse, the Russians were running out of: soldiers, generals, aircraft, missiles, bombs, tanks etc. When this patently did not happen we were then told that the M777 Howitzer and +HIMARS provision would change the state of play.... then the Leopards and Chieftains would make a difference.... then the Patriot Missile batteries would be a game changer. As we can clearly see today the majority (at LEAST 51%) of these systems are now either destroyed, unserviceable, under repair or pulled back from anywhere close to the battlefront. Now we hear a chorus of give them F16s, that will change the score!!! Send M1A1 Abrams sooner and win this war!!! It's all nonsense. Whats more the Western media continues to press the narrative that Ukraine can will this war. Give the Ukrainians the tools and they can win.
It's simply shocking. The US, primarily, is precipitating the destruction of Ukraine and is currently fight this proxy war ....even unto the "last available Ukrainian soldier". History will not view Blinken, Noland and most of all Senator Graham kindly (not to forget the lying bumbling fool and US lap dog and now disgraced ex UK PM Boris Johnson). For their hands are covered in blood....... every bit as much as Zelensky and Putin.
Those over engineered , expensive ''wunda weapons'' are being quickly turned to junk by Russian mass artillery and cheap drones from Iran and China
Our so called leaders are educated idiots, wrong on everything, and yet these deluded fools think themselves qualified to engage in nuclear poker and brinkmanship with serious political actors like Putin and lavrov . Quite frankly, we are going to be fortunate to escape this quagmire without haplessly triggering WW3 , that we will surely lose
Great comment.
I would not call Uncle Joe "over-educated" though! ;)
IMF = Israeli Military Fund
ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
They aren't idiots. They are doing it all on purpose. And the purpose is to destroy us, not them.
The Frankfurt School adapted Marx’s theories on revolution to include Freud’s theory of the subconscious. The Cultural Marxists’ main focus was to reshape the subconscious of Western men and women and thus create new type of person: one who would react passively to provocations of all kinds.
https://nordicresistancemovement.org/what-is-cultural-marxism/
Our American President is doing globally what he’s done domestically in the US, namely dividing into a binary choice of being a friend or an enemy. Neutrality is unacceptable.
First of all, there are *videos* on twitter of dead Russians in the dozens everyday. Literally becoming cat/dog food. Bodies on bodies on bodies. And those are only the ones caught on camera. Russians regularly abandon their dead and their bodies are sometimes found only as skeletons. They care, as history demonstrates too, very little for human life. Secondly, Ukraine is definitely making bigger gains now than Russia did during it’s winter offensive even though the majority of the forces have not been deployed yet. Thirdly, wester weapons did prove to be crucial. HIMARS especially, as well as the M777. They successfully annihilated the Russian push during the summer of 2022 and given the Ukrainians the option to regain Kharkiv and Kherson. Fourthly, the Russian economy took a significant hit, but unfortunately India and China saved it from collapsing. Still, the rubble is on a stead downward trend and is projected to reach the bottom it conquered in March 2022, pretty soon. Fifthly, the EU hasn't even felt anything. As someone who lives in the EU all I see around me is money money and more money. The economy is booming….in the medium to long run Russia has no chance to somehow win economically over the West hahahah what a crazy idea even to think about it. Sixthly, yes, some were saying Russia was about to run out of missiles and look at what happened…Russian missile attacks are significantly less frequent and potent from the peak of one massive barrage every two weeks. Also, the west was going to run out of shells too, right? The US was supposed to be producing only 14k shells a month and yet somehow the Russians are still getting pounded into oblivion. Seventhly, 51% of wester weapons destroyed? Hahahahha you just pulled that right out of your behind, right? Obviously military hardware is meant to be used and take hits, especially the IFVs and Tanks. Btw where is Armata!?! Hahaha HIMARS however - NOT ONE DESTROYED. Incredible. Simply stunning. The only mistake the West keeps making is waiting unnecessarily long to give weapons. They should give Ukraine everything except Nukes. Finally, who is winning? Well, Ukraine was supposed to be demilitarized (now it’s one of the best armed and equipped armies in the world), it was supposed to be turned into a Russian puppet state (denazification) but now it’s absurd to even think about Russians conquering Kyiv. It was supposed to become a neutral state but now it’s going to be a de facto NATO member. Russia was supposed to secure a safe land bridge to Crimea and yet those pesky HIMARS and STORM SHADOWS make it inconceivable now. Ukraine today is the most famous country in the world and the modern Antemurale Christianitatis except it’s defending democracy against tyrannical Eastern Hordes.
Sorry, don't agree with anything you say. You are clearly deluded by the lies you hear, or perhaps by personal pain. We shall see how things progress. I still wish you the best. Stay safe.
The man is a Russophobe from the Balkans, an extremely vile sort.
Yes. I said my piece & and will leave him to vent.
The Jews started this war like they did WW1 and WW2 . . .
Thoughts on Britain’s “Rwanda Plan” . . . “It seems fair to conclude that Jewish organizations have uniformly advocated high levels of immigration of all racial and ethnic groups into Western societies and have also advocated a multicultural model for these societies.” — Kevin MacDonald, The Culture of Critique
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2022/05/06/thoughts-on-britains-rwanda-plan/
I love Russians, I actually have Russian friends unlike you. Haha I hate the fascist Putin regime that is willing to kill hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians so that he can fulfill his wet dream of being a conqueror. Sad.
Sure you do. Cut the crap Ljubomire Filipoviću, you are a vile propagandist.
Good argument. Pure logic. Excepted nothing less.
You forgot to mention the West's role in this carnage, it's been pouring oil on this fire from 2014 on (google the lieaked discussion between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt).
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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He's a filthy lying Jew, like the Bolshevists Anthony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Janet Yellen, Angelino Mayorkas, Merrick Garland, Emmanuel Macron, et. al.
“During the previous Labour government, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were ardent Zionists because they accepted the justice of Israel’s cause, not because Labour’s chief fund-raisers were first the Jew Michael Levy and then the Jew Jonathan Mendelsohn (both are now members of the House of Lords). And during the current Conservative government, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have been ardent Zionists because they too accept the justice of Israel’s cause, not because the Conservatives’ chief fund-raisers have been first the Jew Sir Mick Davis and then the Jew Sir Ehud Sheleg.”
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2021/10/04/funding-both-sides-how-jewish-money-controls-british-politics/
The Russian shill says I’m deluded hahahaha I always say to rushist bots, reading your insane coping and flat out denialism of reality makes me laugh and be sad at the same time.
If it is Russia that has the grandiose dreams of being conquerors, why did Russia sign and abide by two different peace agreements that the West all lied about? Shouldn't that have been the other way around?
Jewish Corruption in Ukraine . . . by Andrew Joyce, Ph.D.
❝. . . the present conflict is a huge distraction from the fact that, for decades, the biggest threat to Ukraine hasn’t been Russia, but financiers and speculators operating with impunity within Ukraine’s borders to exploit ethnic Ukrainians and plunder their resources.❞
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2023/02/17/jewish-corruption-in-ukraine/
The peace agreements were meant to make Ukraine into a vassal state of RF - giving the regions under de facto RU control "special status" and ability to veto Ukrainian political decisions.
Sure Putin would rather prefer to have Ukraine as a vassal state without resorting to military confrontation, and maybe later incorporating it like Belarus.
Whether he should have been given this opportunity - probably. Probably the West should have concentrated on making its frontiers an impenetrable wall rather then expanding to territories that are ill suited for defense.
Defense from what exactly? Russia is not a threat to try to conquer Europe. It is NATO that is both expansionary and has a military only designed for offensive maneuvers rather than defense as is Russia's military.
Ukraine’s “fame” is one no other country would envy. She is being demographically destroyed and reduced to a field lab for Western weaponry and insurgency strategies. Our elites will leave a legacy of environmental ruin, cultural wreckage and human trafficking in their wake.
I don’t see a contradiction. Ukraine is being used by the liberal imperium to force regime change in Russia and if it the plan worked (it didn’t) it would be subsumed into the imperium and stripped of the very national identity you purport to cherish.
There is no indication anywhere that the West wanted a regime change in Russia. For christ sake most western statesmen even now want to keep the Russian regime stable for a variety of reasons (nukes etc). The discourse of giving Putin an off ramp is ever present. This crisis is wholly a product of Russian imperialism and a wish to reassert control over the limitrophe.
No country in the West is stripped of it’s national identity, this is a myth that just wont die no matter what the reality on the ground says.
Joe Bribem said, " Putin cannot remain in power."
If not regime change, what exactly does that mean?
Jew Biden has a cabinet full of Bolshevist Jews, two of which (Blinken and Nuland) grew up in Ukraine. . . .
Make no mistake, this is another Jewish war against Russians, funded by the Mensheviks on Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange.
“It seems fair to conclude that Jewish organizations have uniformly advocated high levels of immigration of all racial and ethnic groups into Western societies and have also advocated a multicultural model for these societies.” — Kevin MacDonald, The Culture of Critique
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2022/05/06/thoughts-on-britains-rwanda-plan/
If this war is a fight for freedom, then the Russian speaking east has a right to secede, correct?
Do you honestly think the US would tolerate a Russian friendly regime in Mexico or Canada? One birthed into existence by Russian NGOs and security services?
I understand any peoples desire to forge their own national identity and to step outside the shadow of a neighboring power with whom they share a complex and tragic history. But aligning with a super power 6,000 miles away and with interests and ideologies of their own is doomed to end in tears.
Finally, if you think the liberal imperium is going to allow Ukraine to carve out a nationalist identity and map out an independent destiny of its own, you are paying much attention.
The arms dealers, military advisors will remain and the money laundering will continue on less lucrative terms, but the Ukrainian people will be stuck with all of the downside of the cynical geopolitical travesty.
No they do not. There is no historical precedent for their autonomy and they were not under threat of genocide or ethnic cleansing. They were used crudely and blatantly by Russia to achieve it’s imagined imperial self worth. Political Russians in the East of UA (not Russian speakers which proved to be overwhelmingly on the side of UA - everyone expect a majority to side with Russia especially in Kharkiv but they did not) decided to be Moscow’s instrument of conquest. They were armed and organized by Russians to stage a rebellion against Kyiv and provide a cover for an all out invasion and annexation of Crime. Russia also provided crucial direct help that saved the rebels in the east. Their fight was a fight of conquest not freedom.
The US already tolerates Cuba. Also even if Canada were to turn fascist I do not think the US would have a right to invade and destroy Canada because of that. Ridiculous argument. Also Ukraine was not birth by NGOs but by the insane, idiotic, kleptocratic and corrupt pro Russian governments that ruled Ukraine since 1990. Young Ukrainians wanted their future to be like that of Poland and the rest of the former east block; remaining a Russian vassal was not an option.
There is no historical precedent for their autonomy? Are you sure you want to go on a historical tour of Ukraine’s ever changing borders, ethnic rivalries, differing languages and conflicts?
Stop wasting your time watching videos on Telegram and read the history. Practice strategic empathy and develop principles you can apply equally to geopolitics.
You may not be aware, but when the Ukrainian head of the USSR put missiles in Cuba it precipitated a nuclear showdown. Ultimately, Khrushchev withdrew his missiles from Cuba and Kennedy took our out of Turkey.
Statesmanship like that may no longer be possible if we don’t under the necessity for regional security complexes.
Ukraine is being ruthlessly used, not protected by our current elites.
Yes, I want to do it. Let’s go Kevin give it your best shot. You can do it buddy.
Ukraine is not being used, it’s an independent actor that could have decided to side with Russia. You are outside of your own mind swimming in the russian propaganda Koolaid. WAKE UP. Stop being a useful idiot and make your ancestors proud by supporting the fight against tyranny.
"The US tolerates Cuba"
How big of them.
IMF = Israeli Military Fund
ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
“They are, all of them, born with raging fanaticism in their hearts, just as the Bretons and the Germans are born with blonde hair, I would not be in the least bit surprised if these people would not become deadly to the human race. They have surpassed all nations in impertinent fables, in bad conduct and in barbarism. They deserve to be punished, for this is their destiny. The Jewish nation dares to display an irreconcilable hatred towards all nations, and revolts against all masters; always superstitious, always greedy for the well-being enjoyed by others, always barbarous; cringing in misfortune and insolent in prosperity.”
— François-Marie Voltaire
I think I am not the only one here who is not interested in opinions based on fantasies. Read the article and learn something.
Sorry; you are NOT paying much attention. Best case scenario was always going to be Ukraine as a deracinated vassal state used as a source for wealth extraction by the “liberators”. The Orthodox iconography replaced by rainbows, the Bandera history memory-holed and the Azov imagery re-designed by someone in Soros
The man that posts this as his comment: "It’s only in times like this when I read lies from traitors that I wish the West was more like Russia" is ideologically possessed.
Anyway this person is the representative of the Balkan sycophant class, there is no reasoning with them.
I’m not sure who he means when he says “traitors.” I’m American and don’t see how my country’s interests are served by surrounding Russia with “pro-western” satellites. Our foreign policy Hive is better at destabilizing entire regions and opening the floodgates to murderous mayhem than they are at building up peaceful relations and regions.
Nor, do I see what Ukraine receives from this debacle. It is they who are being betrayed by the unholy alliance between their oligarchs and ours.
Anyone that does not agree to his masters agenda. The man is Ljubomir Filipović, a vile local low level propagandist.
Kevin you are a traitor to your whole civilization not just america. A traitor of the free world. These are not “satellites” but free market democracies whose only shield against tyranny is the NATO alliance. The US profits from having a large and economically prosperous system of alliances. Look at South Korea, Japan, Germany, the whole of the EU etc. you’d throw all this in the arms of a tyrant??? When the Ukrainian people OVERWHELMINGLY say they want to be part of the West, when they are willing to die for Freedom here comes Kevin, a genius geopolitical visionary, and says NO! We will not support your fight for freedom because I am to stupid to see how that would directly benefit me in the short term. Plus I like to think I am smart when I criticize the mainstream politics in the US. I see an alliance of our oligarchs, I dont see the sea of regular Ukrainians clamoring for freedom. I am willing to be a useful idiot for fascist forces anywhere and anytime!!!
Pure projection. Best case scenario is Ukraine continues on a path of freedom and liberty and progressively becomes ever more rich and stable. Like all other east block countries that are today in the EU. Worst case scenario is Russia is a vassal state of a corrupt, barbaric, authoritarian kleptocracy called Russia. Orthodox iconography is not removed. Complete fantasy. Some Russian Orthodox priests are de facto agents of the Russian state and should be and are being either banished to Russia or imprisoned for treason. BTW I love how Ukraine is simultaneously a far right Nazi zombie state and a progressive, Soros open society leftist hellhole.
"BTW I love how Ukraine is simultaneously a far right Nazi zombie state and a progressive, Soros open society leftist hellhole." Yes, that's precisely what you love. But that's your problem. Isn't it remarkable how all these white supremacist, swastika bearing freedom fighters are dying on the front line while their politicos back in Kiev are passing pro-LBTQ+ laws only to satisfy their globohomo western backers? History will certainly look upon that as a major example of political schizophrenia but anything is good enough if it's against the hated Russians, right?
Ukraine had thirty years since independence to develop its economy and its system and failed at it, utterly. EU membership will make no difference. The idea that Eastern European countries that became EU members all prospered is bogus. All of them exported their unemployment problem to the old EU. The population decline in some countries was staggering, most notably in the oh-so-successful baltics. It's easy to become "successful" if much of the population is on menial jobs somewhere else. But the EU as a whole is in decline now and is also now taking in millions of immigrants from other parts of the world. Absorbing and subsidizing Ukraine in the same way as it was ostensibly done with other Eastern European countries will not be possible. What _will_ be possible is to depopulate Ukraine and sell it to the highest bidder for it to become a Western-owned, Western-run plantation state.
It was the Jews who started this war . . .
How the 'Grift Right' Gimps for the Left . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/how-the-grift-right-gimps-for-the
You forgot about being field lab for US bioweapons testing.
First of all, history is plenty of countries being proud to fight for freedom. Millions gave their lives for the chance to live in a free democratic society or at least not to be subjugated by another country. Your argument make no sense, they are fighting both for their survival and for their land. Legitimately. The idea that Ukraine is a lab for *old* western tech (as if that makes any sense whatsoever- that this would be some kind of evil way to test old weapons cloaked by the pretext of helping a country defend itself) is a ridiculous way to frame the conversation. None of this would be happening if Russia did not invade a neighboring country AGAIN. HOWEVER, unrelated to this issue, our elites (I guess in broad general way - you didnt bothered being specific) will leave a pretty bad legacy, especially if they kowtow to ruSSian fascism.
If you believe in Freedom why are you against the Donbas and Crimea attempting to be free from a Ukraine they did not vote to be part of?
Freedom for Donbas!
Freedom for Crimea!
Freedom for the NAZIs in Western Ukraine!
Ukraine how it was constructed prior to 2014 was stupid. Half the country hates the other half. The West pushed them to civil war and Russia is trying to end it. Simple as that.
Volodymyr Zelensky is an Israeli operative . . . Jukraine is a Jewish rump state . . . there are no "Nazis" in Jukraine . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Ukraine’s Azov Regiment Visits Israel: ‘Mariupol is our Masada’ . . . https://nationalvanguard.org/2022/12/ukraines-azov-regiment-visits-israel-mariupol-is-our-masada/
Fuck you and your Jewish god.
For me, it’s long been a given that CRT is linked to the social engineering of our “hostile elite,” which in the context of The Occidental Observer means powerful Jews and Jewish organizations who rule over America and much of The West.
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2021/06/21/critical-race-theory-as-a-jewish-intellectual-weapon/
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
You should give up the curated filth of war porn and instead mourn the tragedy that is this war. In a few years that will be very little affection for the US policy makers that used it as a bloody, disposable battering ram against Russia.
“Oh how fond they are of the book of Esther, which is so beautifully attuned to their bloodthirsty, vengeful, murderous yearning and hope.” — Martin Luther
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Russia has five times as much artillery as Ukraine. According to zelensky. Russians are dying at five times the rate of Ukrainians. So obviously each Ukrainian shell is 25 times as deadly as a Russian one.
It’s simple maths. Why does anyone doubt it.
Stop cope not good for your mental health.
What utter nonsense. Virtually nothing you say here survives any scrutiny. Saying it, in what is essentially a well researched, logically argued, academic environment simply amplifies it's fallacies. Talk about taking a knife to a gunfight.
You just wrote absolutely nothing. What a waste of internet signal. What scrutiny? That of ridiculous Rushist propaganda infused maniacs?
Substack an academic environment? Hahahahhaha you’re a joke. Say something concrete instead of just platitudes before invoking some supposed intellectual superiority. You came to this “gun fight” nothing but a hurt butt from having your propaganda bubble burst.
You have too much time and energy.
How many people are on your team?
Thanks!
He has about 6 million in Tel Aviv . . .
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Literally everything that you wrote is a lie but considering your comment: "It’s only in times like this when I read lies from traitors that I wish the West was more like Russia" it is clear that you are ideologically possessed.
How is it clear? Say something meaningful. Try. I said what I said because it’s true. Similarly to when I want to eat a whole chocolate cake. I want to do it and it would be so sweet but I dont do it because it would be bad for my health. In the same way it’d be so sweet to see you locked up (like the antiwar activists in Russia) for being traitors not only to your respective countries but also to your whole civilization, however it would be bad for our societies so we should restrain ourselves.
Literally everything that you wrote is a provable lie and I'm not going to debate you.
Pussy cat. Ccc come here pussy cat. Hahaha 🐈
L O S E R četnik remains L O S E R
Keep showing your true face to everyone
1. I recommend you read Mr. Mearsheimers article before writing the comment. (You don't have to, if you are a CIA provocateur.)
2. Do you still watch MSM, or did you just confused the words? NOT Russians, but Ukrainians are leaving their dead to rot on the fields, Ukrainian troops are complaining the command doesn't take care of them, and the Ukrainian government make extra money by allowing the Western "humanitarian" organizations to do organ harvesting (coordinated by the American wife of Shakashvili, the governer of Odessa, who escaped to Ukraine after his government in Georgia failed) - Ukrainian government sells even the organs from their own soldiers, even if they don't have mortal wounds, without soldier's or relative's consent, and they are especially cruel with Russian soldiers (a Ukrainian doctor boasted on social media he doesn't sedate Russian soldiers). Greed has not limits. See Ukrainian laws adopted in 2021 and 2022, in order to legalize organ harvesting without consent.
3. You can find a lot of sources in Rumble, with keywords "organ harvesting". And try "child trafficking" too, see what Tim Ballard from OUR Rescue has to say.
4. Ukraine under this regime is heaven for the Western scum of all sorts. Even from the highest levels (Joe Biden and his son Hunter, Burisma, biolabs, etc.) - Zelensky sold Ukraine on the on-line auction.
5. I recommend listening to the Western politicians more closely and carefully. And you might realize, that they are not only warmongers, but they dream about nuking Russia (see Liz Truss' statement). If Russia wanted to nuke us, they would do so a long time ago.
6. War is not a football or computer game! People die there! (And animals die and the land is devastated).
7. My heart is with people of Ukraine who suffer under such reckless government and even more reckless interference of the rotten West... I wish Mr. Mearshimer stressed more, how corrupt the West is.
These "Russians", who abandon their dead, "Are they even human?"
Don't bother answering.
That and, "paragraphs are your friend".
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ghm1bUe-QE
The protocols are a forgery.
Get a life.
You're a filthy lying kikesucker who can't even speak Russian.
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
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Nemanja Plotan
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There are multiple sources suggesting loss rate of 7:1, which is 7 Ukrainians for 1 Russian. Your "support of Ukraine" doesn’t help the Ukrainians. Also this an international audience, which doesn’t care about your Slavic feuds, our concern is how Western democracy is failing to represent its own people.
If you could marry a HIMARS, would you?
I think you're a gutless little Zionist queer just like he is . . .
Whatever, you stupid hate monkey.
You gutless little Zionist coward.
You are delirious. Drink some water. Eat something nutritious. Be well.
Be well?
Be serious.
And make an argument.
Why Do the Ukrainians Allow Their Country to Be Completely Run by Jews?
https://russia-insider.com/en/why-do-ukrainians-allow-their-country-be-completely-run-jews/ri27010
Make an argument stupid.
Why Do the Ukrainians Allow Their Country to Be Completely Run by Jews?
https://russia-insider.com/en/why-do-ukrainians-allow-their-country-be-completely-run-jews/ri27010
?
Hello there,
I'm Nemanja Plotan, the creator behind WorldWatch Weekly, a newsletter dedicated to exploring topics such as Global Political Economy, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, History, and Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Subscribers, both free and paid, will receive a warm welcome from me, complete with a treasure trove of free gifts in their inbox. Expect to find a complimentary short Handbook on International Relations, along with additional documents designed to enrich your understanding of our complex world.
Join me on this enlightening journey by subscribing today!
Warm regards,
Nemanja Plotan
WorldWatch Weekly
Next up?
Tactical nuclear weapons.
Gamechanger?
Yeah, for sure.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars
❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-7-world-wide-wars
I have no idea how the war is going to pan out, who will 'win', what it will look like, but I do know Russia has nuclear weapons, a lot of them, and so any attempt to defeat it it is simply madness. There is no other word for it. It is madness. Biden is the mad fella, surrounded by mad fellas. There is no 'win' to be had here; just two sides, one of whom will have less of a defeat than the other. One child will cut off the other's arm, the other child cut off the first's leg, then they'll argue who won.
One thing I would question is the perceived wisdom that Russia has a 10:1 advantage in artillery. What does this actually mean? How is it calculated? Is that number of artillery units? How much explosive can be delivered in a particular time period e.g. per day? I see video after video of pockmarked fields, caused by Russian munitions that clearly aren't particularly well guided, if at all. This ordnance seems to do remarkably little damage other than to larks nesting in the open plains. If Russia had a 10:1 advantage in effectiveness of artillery, surely they'd be in Poland by now? The two sides are more or less stalemated, which may suggest 90% of Russia's artillery fire is useless?
I am mostly interested in the 'west' which we know boils down to the USA. Why does it behave as it does? 'Manichaean' suggests good versus evil. That stuff is for small children or religious maniacs. Is the USA run by small children or religious maniacs? If it is, why? If it isn't, why does it act like it is?
John touches on the public position without going into the reasons how the USA (West) got there.
He mentions the sacrosanct "rules-based international order" but makes no reference to this being a myth. It has no legal standing. Not a word in a Word document. It means do as the USA tells you. Or else...
What is it about the USA that makes the country operate like the mafia, like an organised crime gang, like a drug cartel, deciding that the only route for it to take as a country is expanding its global market share through overwhelming violence, blood, murder, death, misery, destruction?
The USA is a democracy, at least notionally, so it could be argued that if successive governments over a period of decades – certainly covering the entire post-WWII period – act in the same vein, then the American voter must be to blame because they vote their leader(s) into government.
Or is the USA a failed democracy, a sham democracy where, no matter which 'party' gets elected to govern, there is an undemocratic omnipotent deep state running the country behind the scenes?
Or is it a mixture of the two?
In the 60s, the Vietnam War caused revulsion in a portion of the American people. A generation. Sure that's oversimplifying it, no generational consciousness is all-pervasive, but it was enough to be tangible, to gain international renown, and to hugely influence young Europeans and beyond.
Where has that revulsion gone? Where is the moral compass of the American people? Has it been lost through moral decay and apathy? Or has it been crushed out of them by the deep state?
I look back at Mearsheimer's words above:
"the West suddenly began portraying Russia as a dangerous foe"
"Moscow now appears to be seen as an existential threat"
"Western leaders frequently portray the Ukraine war"
"the West treats Russia as an existential threat"
Portrays. Appears. There was also a 'couched' I couldn't be bothered to copy down.
The West 'treats' Russia as an existential threat. The word 'treats' carefully chosen by Mearsheimer. He could have written 'sees', and the fact that he didn't speaks volumes, because the West doesn't see Russia as an existential threat (because Russia isn't one, if you'd just stop poking the bear), but the West (USA) does treat it as one, and it does portray it as one.
There's a lot of portraying and appearing going on for the American public to try to see through.
Many do, of course. In fact one of the surprising things about the Ukraine war to this European is just how perceptive many American citizens are about it; how much they see through the lies and say so. Europeans lap up the propaganda like good little sheep and repeat what they're told to. Bah. Soon they'll hate the Chinese as well, but have absolutely no idea why. "We just do". Bah.
How easily led we are to hate other people based on labels. Russian. Chinese. And yet how we portray (there's that word again) ourselves as good people. We used to portray ourselves as good people because we lived in (purported) Christian countries. Now we portray ourselves as good people because we live in (purported) democracies. I'm not a Christian but it seems I have a higher opinion of Christ than many Christians do because I don't believe Christ was full of hate for strangers, I don't believe a true Christian is full of hate for strangers, and I don't allow myself to hate a total stranger based on nothing else than an accidental event like his or her place of birth.
The West is heading rapidly into fascism and in some ways has arrived there. The requirement to conform to the 'rules-based order' world view. Do they not listen to themselves, Blinken, von der Leyen? Do they not hear how fascistic 'rules-based order' sounds? Would those kids on campus in the 60s have been able to grow their protest movement today in a climate where a different opinion is deemed by the state to be 'disinformation', and where the likes of Mearsheimer and Hersh are cancelled by GCM (Government Controlled Media) and forced onto the likes of Substack instead? I'm doing those kids a disservice by even suggesting it. They acted. Protested. They got murdered by the Ohio National Guard at Kent State University. But the climate is becoming more oppressive, more fascistic, in more subtle ways, like freezing or seizing your financial assets. No, you haven't been shot dead on campus, sure, but it's still the state carrying out a crime against its citizens.
Two years ago I'd have laughed at the idea I lived in a fascist state. Eighteen months of televised lies, daily, without fail, orchestrated by government, can change a man's opinion of his country.
What next, America? How about giving us the names of those responsible for the Ukraine disaster? I'm pretty sure it was John Mearsheimer that told us that Bill Burns was opposed to NATO expanding into Ukraine. I can quickly see Burns on record in 2008 as advising Condoleeza Rice against it. As such, it's hard to think that the Director of the CIA is in any way responsible for the Ukraine disaster. But someone or some people orchestrated it from the US side. Who are they?
Come on, America. Give us their names. Don't get yourself handed a libel suit. Do your research. Facts facts facts. Quotes quotes quotes. But give us their names, please, because those responsible should be put on trial for warmongering in the International Criminal Court.
Some very good points here Sladkovian. I appreciate it....and it wasn't too long for me to read.
One point on the artillery 10:1 and fields full of pockmarks comment. One way the 10:1 can be estimated based on rate of fire. However if you are short of shells, as the Ukrainians are, then that would underestimate one side's capability. There are also estimates of the number artillery pieces generally available and estimates of the production of such weaponry by reputable sources.
Regarding the suggestion of inaccuracy of bombardment. Rembere what appears to be random pockmarks in fields can be directly due to targeting of troops who may have been running into/or down the field during the shelling. Additionally some pieces of artillery are less accurate than others in the first place.
Finally, the idiot on here called Ljubomir is a troll and a spoiler for a fight character. You occasionally come across these folks and there is no point debating with them. They always resort to insults. To really annoy them just resist replying. They usually pick up very little or no support from participants.....just as the Ljobomir demonstrates in this thread.
Too long to read. Probably all nonsense just like the assertion that Russia cannot lose a war because it has nukes. What a ridiculous conclusion devoid of any historical context. Nuclear powers lost many wars, including existential ones (the Afghanistan war basically set the stage for the Soviet collapse). Furthermore, the West has nukes too. So did Ukraine before it foolishly gave them away believing that Russia would not invade. Sad.
"Too long to read"
So what are you doing on Substack? The place for the grownups?
Stick to Twitter, or just do something people with short attention spans like doing. I don't know what to suggest for you. Count up to two?
I was dissuaded from reading after I came up to the first absurdity - Russians have nukes so they cant lose a war. Substack is for Russian useful idiots, trolls and conspiracy theorists. I came to burst your bubble. Obviously you know nothing about being an adult, being concise or even how to think. I dont need to stick to twitter. You need to learn how to transform your word salads into a succinct, relevant and reasonable paragraph.
Fuck you and your Jewish god.
Sure Russia cannot loose this war because it has nukes. The perception that today's Russia has of the war against the nazi regime in Ukraine is completely different from the perception that the Soviet Union had of the Afghan war. Russia from the top to the bottom is united in the conviction that the nazi regime in Kiev and its NATO backers must be defeated lest Russia will be destroyed. Nobody in the Soviet Union really believed in the Afghan war, not even the top leadership. The final decision to enter the war was made solely by Breshnev and Gromyko on weak convictions of not wanting to keep a geopolitical position that they felt was in danger of being taken over by the West. But the entire leadership knew full well that drawing them into a quagmire was the West's goal. In the end they were still able to extricate themselves much better than the West was able to extricate itself from its own Afghan quagmire years later. Soviet troops made an orderly reatreat from Afghanistan and left a regime in place that was able to hold out against the Taliban. Only the collapse of the Soviet Union itself put an end to it. NATO forces fled from Afghanistan head over heels, people falling from airplanes they clung to. The regime that the West had installed finally lasted not more than a few days although its weapons stores were still chock full.
Russia has the means and the resolve. If it comes close to loosing the conventional war, then it will use nukes just as Mearsheimer says. The preconditions are already fulfilled according to Russian doctrine, even according to Putin's own words cited by Mearsheimer. Ukraine and the West want to destroy Russia. Disregarding doctrine, the Ukrainian regime is committing acts of mass destruction (blowing up the Kharkova dam) and genocide (sending minorities as cannon fodder to the front). It more than deserves nukes being used on it.
You people don't know your anus from a hole in the ground . . . the Jews started this war . . . Zelensky is an Israeli operative . . . Biden is just a Zionist Jew puppet . . .
IMF = Israeli Military Fund
ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . . https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Calling a jewish regime nazi is pretty funny +1.
IMF = Israeli Military Fund
ISIS = Khazar = Kiev junta = Zionist IMF
NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Svoboda/Pravy Sektor and the like are nazis by another name. Having a nominally Jewish puppet spokesman is window dressing. No ethnic or religious group is so monolithic that you can judge the entire group from the actions of one individual member.
Volodymyr Zelensky is an Israeli operative, the Ukrainian parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks.
Ukraine’s Azov Regiment Visits Israel: ‘Mariupol is our Masada’ . . .
https://nationalvanguard.org/2022/12/ukraines-azov-regiment-visits-israel-mariupol-is-our-masada/
Kind of obvious that you are unfamiliar how artillery works. The reason why you see all those craters in the field is because you have to fire a first salvo then correct the fire. As for 10:1 ratio read the RUSI report.
I do understand it, at least in theory. It just appears Russia is heavily reliant on old systems that are largely ineffective. You're right, I'm not familiar with individual systems, but those Grad launchers that fire off 40 rockets into the middle of a field look inefficient. Then you have the correction. But how efficient is it? How is it calibrated? What is the minimum adjustment you can make? 100 metres? 10 metres? 1 metre? Then you have line of sight to consider. If Russian artillery has no line of sight, they're firing blind aren't they, so 10:1 ratio is meaningless in those circumstances. Assuming no line of sight (e.g. where frontline is on the steppe), correction must come from 'spotter' drones, right? Does Russia have a 10:1 ratio of those drones? I doubt it.
Which RUSI report? And if you have read it, why can't you just summarise it in a few lines for the readers to understand? Sounds like you have clear understanding of it.
And if Russia does have a genuine 10:1 artillery advantage, and by that I mean in terms of effectiveness (not just numbers of units), and Russia has air superiority to a degree, why is it that the Russian military appears to find advancing so hard to achieve?
Sure, there is the attrition theory, that Russia just blazes away and doesn't need to go forward, that eventually every single Ukrainian will be dead and then Russia can advance all the way to Poland on skateboards and shopping trolleys, completely unopposed. But evidence of the last 16 months makes me sceptical that will happen.
Russia has made several major retreats:
1) Conceded vast amounts of territory in the early weeks, quickly retreating from Kiev, which was the right move. Shocking Kiev into an early surrender was worth a try, to try to conclude the SMO as bloodlessly as possible. I don't see this in a negative light.
2) Retreated from Kherson. To avoid being cut off on the wrong side of the Dnepr. Again this was the right thing to do as Russia had initially bitten off more than it could cope with logistically, and I don't see the retreat across the Dnepr in a negative light.
3) Kharkov oblast. This was a mess and it is impossible not to see it in a negative light. I thought Russia would retake ground at least to the first river (Oskol?) this winter, but it hasn't even done that, never mind recover ground back to the second river to the west. They haven't even reached Kupiansk yet.
I don't have the feeling that Russia can afford a fourth major retreat, and I sense NATO 'going for the kill'. If it did happen, Russia will have to consider conceding Ukraine, or escalating. I don't want to think about the implications: I don't see Russia conceding. So far it has been NATO escalating, incrementally. But Russia can escalate too.
Or do you think Russia can just motor on in the same vein? Time is on their side? Eventually NATO will do what NATO do every time and realise their campaign has been totally pointless and cost trillions of dollars and they will just pack up and go home, leaving the country they had supposedly 'rescued' in ruins, millions of people dead?
I try not to pay attention to who has taken which piece of ground in a day any more. Or even in a week, or a month. It even doesn't matter where the territorial split is after 18 months. All that matters is who has which territory at the end, whenever the end is. Mearsheimer talks about resolve. There is no parity of resolve. This is existential for Russia and Ukraine. An idiot might portray it as existential for the USA, but it isn't.
Time will tell, hey?
One point on the "territory" question of war. You can take territory but can you hold it? You can also take territory and hold it but at what cost?
When the Russians retreated from Kharkiv it is my understanding the area was not heavily concentrated with Russian or DNR forces to defend against the effective (and highly motivated) Ukrainian onslaught. As you note the retreat from Kherson was strategic and while folks like Peter Zeihan waxed on about huge Russian equipment and troop losses, these did not really occur. It was a great example of pulling out men and serviceable equipment with minimal losses.
However my main point here is that I believe the territory is secondary in the Russian's mind to the grinding down of Ukrainian men and equipment. The carnage currently going on is taking a massive toll on Ukrainian resources that they can ill afford to lose. Indeed, they make take a few more settlements and territory in the coming weeks, but the losses they are incurring are disastrous. Imagine being a newly conscripted Ukrainian, given little training , and then told to advance on Russian positions under murderous artillery and drone attacks. These folks are not going to be effective (unless there are 10 more of them to the defenders facing them).
Russia is now churning out weapons in increasing amounts while Ukraine is consuming precious amounts. This can only end one way.
Hi X75,
I replied to Mark H elsewhere on the gaining/losing/ceding of territory.
But to summarise, I don't think the Russians can afford a fourth retreat without striking back with overwhelming force and reclaiming all the ceded ground and possibly then going on the offensive and gaining more ground.
They will just run out of territory to cede if they keep ceding it. The idea that they can recreate the Battle of Kursk (is that right battle?) is great in theory, but at some point Russia has to successfully re-enact it – suck the Ukrainians in and then wipe them out – not just keep saying that they can.
And of course Kursk was enacted before the time of NATO spy satellites observing every tree along every hedgerow in Ukraine. Could the same grand deception/manoeuvre be executed by Russia today? Surely not?
Russia's biggest mistake for me (apart from the disastrously messy Kharkov retreat) was booking flights and packing their suitcases for their summer holidays after the taking of Popasna, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. It's the only time they've had the Ukrainians on the run in this conflict beyond the initial invasion. There was no element of surprise. Just hard military graft. Ukraine looked in disarray at that time and Russian forces were within a couple of miles of Seversk. I've heard it said that Russia didn't have the numbers to keep pressing forwards but I wonder about that. Momentum seems incredibly hard to get going in this conflict. Once gained, allowing it to slip through your fingers appears to prove very costly. A year on, Russia is still a few miles from Seversk, in fact it has lost that particular Belogorovka.
Now I'm sure someone will come along and tell me why I'm wrong.
I've seen it written in the last few days – possibly by Scott Ritter – that the Popasna area was where Wagner first came to the fore. That's not my recollection at all. Pretty sure the two main elements of Russian go-forward in that area were the Russian military's 'O' grouping, and the Chechens.
I don’t expect further Russian retreats, but they’re in no hurry to advance either — I think the current arrangement suits them both tactically and logistically. Let Ukraine and NATO deal with extended supply lines and an irrational drip-feed of uncoordinated weapons systems in insufficient quantities, eh?
I agree with you. I also said on some thread or other that the Russians cannot even afford to allow Bakhmut to fall back into Ukrainian hands. They of course can be satisfied with the losses they are inflicting on the Ukranians. I have seen more Ukrainian videos this past week show Ukrainian successful attacks of Russian men and equipment but they are few and far between. If I were the Russian military commanders I would be sending a message in time for that NATO meeting on July 10th. But of course I am not, I am just some guy who watches all this terrible carnage from the safety of my comfortable study room.
Kursk was a great battle win for the Russians but they took huge casualties (seen a few figures that said it was as high as 3:1 in favor of the Germans) and the German tanks killed far more Russian tanks than the Germans lost. But the Germans were overwhelmed by Russian numbers, fresh new T34 tanks coming onto the field almost daily and massive artillery availability. Not to mention shortage of fuel of the German side.
The reason they don’t need to advance is that the territory is not the point. Just like Mearshiemer says they need to crash Ukraine to make sure it is not a valuable NATO ally on the Russian border. Another factor is loss of soldiers - it is not easy to get replacements. He cannot get a lot of people from big cities, because they are better informed and will try to avoid it at any cost.
Here is a link to the RUSI (Royal United Services Institute, not Russia affiliated) opinion piece: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Funding Both Sides: How Jewish Money Controls British Politics . . .
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2021/10/04/funding-both-sides-how-jewish-money-controls-british-politics/
There are too many question to address so I will stick to a few. You don't fire the whole load of an MLRS into the void, you fire a few then you correct. There is nothing complicated about it, it has been done the same way with regular artillery for a century now, except that today it is computerized. They have drones for correction, from consumer grade to military grade. There is nothing ineffective about old systems, if you can land a shell near the target it is effective as any other. As for taking ground etc: besides the point of attrition warfare they will not take ground unless it is of strategic value. When you send your forces into a territory you have to build new defences and that takes time. My theory is that this war will not be over until the EU screams, Ukraine is just a battle ground in a much larger war.
Okay, thanks for sharing your artillery knowledge.
As for your final statement(s), I completely agree with the second part. I'm not sure what you mean about the first part. You seem to suggest that Europe screams and the USA listens? How does that tally with the USA taking out Nordstream? Seems to me the USA does what they want and if Europe screams then USA puts headphones on, or tells Europe to shut up. The USA could nuke Berlin and von der Leyen would be on TV denying it.
As long as this war lasts the EU is going downwards. At some point it has to break. Russia is counting on a EU/US split. A tall order, I know.
Oh I see, at a political level? Perhaps.
I don't see any pushback from EU citizens, who have been terrified into accepting the 'Ukraine good Russia bad' bedtime story.
They have been told that their gas bills are high because of Putin. Nobody asks for evidence.
It's hard to read anything European right now. Lies lies lies. There was something about Germany's central bank having a bond crisis. I didn't bother reading it, even though it might be the only true thing in European media this week.
So, yes, behind the scenes, if the central banks are creaking under the strain, senior European politicians cannot let their countries fail. I don't see any evidence we are approaching that point yet. They hid the evidence for Nordstream but they won't be able to hide evidence of financial meltdown from the financial markets. The UK already had a serious wobble around 8 months ago I think it was.
The one thing that will finish the current iteration of the EU is the removal of a veto for individual countries. Some of them will not accept it, and I'm not just thinking about Hungary. Others too.
Germany and France may push for the removal of a veto precisely to shake out some members they don't want in the club any more. I suspect that explains the timing. Probably just the usual threats. Can they afford for Hungary to leave their precious little reich?
Great that you are asking good questions and really thinking about this.
IMO you have to balance the conflict that Russia is engaged in within Ukraine with the conflict it is engaged in without. This is an aspect that John somewhat skirts around in the above. Ukraine is simply a proxy for that larger conflict.
US power rests on US miltary and financial strength. Those factors are codependent, and neither is quite as unassailable as most assume. (The US military industrial complex is generally bloated, somewhat corrupt and inefficient, and the US military hasn't won a conflict with a peer adversary since WW2. Financially, the US is a debt-ridden, dead-man walking, propped up by the facade of economic strength). Both factors rest on the confidence in them - the US is strong largely because of the perception that it is strong. If that perception were to fail (in one leg or the other) then the strength of the combination would crumble. That is what is currently at stake for the West here. China and the Global South understand that frailty. So does Russia, and a loss for the West here would be a milestone event in the decline of the US Empire.
Anyway, here are a couple of pieces you may find of interest regarding the conflict within Ukraine. I don't think you are quite getting the full significance of attritional warfare or the pivot that Russia made in how it prosecuted the conflict pre and post the rejection of the peace agreement (or the wider context of the conflict) -
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-object-of-war
https://sonar21.com/the-planning-of-the-ukraine-invasion-from-the-russian-point-of-view-maybe/
Hi Mark,
I don't get the significance of this or that? It might be I just draw my own conclusions, or I simply wait to see how it all pans out. It's so unpredictable.
I'm trying to read less partisan stuff for a bit so Mearsheimer suits me. Honesty is the most valuable of treasures amid the sea of western lies.
I understand the wider context as well as anyone. Finance is my background.
So, yes, I agree with both yourself and with Dragan that the Ukraine war is actually a relatively minor part in a bigger drama. The bulk of the 'fighting' will be done financially. I was making this point myself over a year ago.
That's not to downplay the loss of life, most (not all) of which is a tragedy.
Mearsheimer is very thorough necessitating keeping his writings focused. I also look at Big Serge's from time to time. Another very thorough writer.
I'm sure we'd both agree that the main thing to keep an eye on is whether this putative dollar alternative that BRICS intend to come up with (do they really?) ever comes to fruition. I'm sceptical. It may well end up more like the renminbi increases its share as a reserve currency for the global 6/7ths?
Either way, de-dollarisation by the rest of the world will be fascinating to watch. Personally I don't think it will go as far as others might wish it to, but it may go far enough to give the USA a critical level problem to solve. Some might even describe it as existential but let's see if we get to critical first. We may have arrived without it being spelled out to people in black and white. Declaring the country is on the brink of ruin is not a good electoral move.
I can't remember the figures I saw a while back for percentages of USD as reserve currency holdings. I think for China USD was around 57%. I don't see this dropping below 50% but if China even dropped from 57% to 50%, that's a lot of dollar debt that China isn't buying up so can USA replace it? No?
The wider conflict or potential conflict doesn't get talked about enough. The potential clash with China especially. Nobody in the West appears to be asking what the evidence is for China being labelled a threat to the West.
The USA has suddenly decided in the past few years (it seems) to make a push for total hegemony; to wipe Russia and China off the chessboard.
The big question is why.
And the only answer I can come up with is America's ticking debt bomb. It's going to blow. The USA is living way beyond its means, refuses to reverse, and the only answer to not being able to buy other people's stuff is for the USA to just go in and take it by military force. You Syrians got oil, that's ours now. You Ukrainians got wheat, that's ours now. You Chinese got everything else, we're taking everything else. You got nothing. We got everything.
It's a suicidal trajectory. Or so it seems to me.
USA has many ingenious people. Why can't the country just trade, not kill?
Yes I agree with what you say in general. I started off reading several folks but over a few months last summer I began to believe that the Institute for the Study of War (and the BBC, Newsweek, CNN etc) were clearly not telling it as it was. The propaganda machine in the West is Faaaarrrrrr superior to the Russian one. I now believe nothing that comes out of Ukraine, 50% of what I see in the West and 75% of what comes out of Russia (just roughly speaking). Indeed it is for this reason plus my research into the origins of Ukraine and this war, that I am now siding with the Russian perspective. Until the early 2000s I was a die hard NATO supporter. I also thought the USA generally did the right thing. After the disastrous recent wars in the Middle East, I am now convinced the West is on the wrong track and that people need to wake up and fast.
I agree with most of that. I shared those two specific articles because they are pretty neutral, tightly written and quite informative. Your comments about the apparent retreat of Russian forces suggests to me that you do not quite fully get the "war of attrition" issue? (Yes to give up ground without gaining in relative strength is still a loss, but there seems to be much evidence that Russian forces have established a meat grinder here which hast cost Ukrainian forces dearly). You simultaneously say that those 3 retreats were the right thing to do, yet then say it cannot afford a 4th? Why not? That is precisely the point of attritive warfare, the territory is the theatre, not the scoreboard.
But yes, I completely agree about waiting to see the realities. There is too much "noise" here (by design) to know anything with great confidence.
Sadly, the US has lived beyond its productive abilities for years and is now so debt burdened that it probably needs to exploit 3rd parties to keep the illusion going. Classic late stage empire practices. Very sad.
Hi Mark, if you've got notifications on,
I said 2 of the 3 retreats were the right thing to do. The third (Kharkov oblast ) was unplanned and damaging to Russia's operation. I won't try to qualify or quantify that. But it was damaging.
Yes, I did spot that apparent contradiction but I left it in.
The reason I don't think Russia can afford a fourth retreat is more to do with morale than anything. Russia can't keep going backwards in the eyes of the Russian public. They seem prone to panic, from what I've read over the last year or so, which Ukraine attempts to exploit by inventing fairy story successes every day.
As a caveat to the above, I have read reports of Russians panicking on Telegram. From what I saw of Prigozhin's 'protest march', there was no panic 'in real life' on the streets at all. The clip of the streetsweeper sweeping rubbish around Wagner personnel will become iconic, I think. So I imagine any panic is overplayed and mainly limited to social media. My perception of Russian people - of whom I have met very few – is that they are prone to being resigned, which sounds a bit negative. Let's say 'stoic' instead. It's impossible to generalise about entire populations, but I'd suggest stoicism as a Russian quality, although this could be as stereotypical as suggesting Italians like flirting and riding scooters.
I came across one Russian lad in Tbilisi, a tourist, who I would describe as 'jovial' (despite an undeservedly cold reception from Georgian hotel staff), and I remember a young woman in London who worked in IT who I would describe as 'a total professional'. Two perfectly normal people, which is why I detest Russophobic language and the people that use it.
I've read – more like skim read – a few articles (possibly by Big Serge) which theorise how these strategic retreats have worked in past military conflicts, to set up crushing counter-offensives. I'm just sceptical that because something worked in the past that means it will necessarily work again. So, yes, if you concede ground while losing 20k men but the opponent loses 40k men - let's assume parity of equipment loss – that logically means your chances of taking the ceded ground back again is much better than it was before. But there is theory and there is practice.
There's the question of trust. The military planners, the generals – having the benefit of studying military history – might understand losing ground to gain 20k personnel advantage. But do the rank and file? Easier to trust your officers when you're advancing.
The biggest reason for Russia not overplaying the strategic retreat card is running out of territory. If they retreat from Kherson they offer a foothold in Kherson. If they retreat on the southern front they lose the nuclear power plant and the kind of sandwich filling layer above Crimea could get squeezed so hard that they have to pull out of Kherson entirely. If they retreat in Donbas what was Soledar and Bakhmut for? if they retreat much further in Kharkov they'll be retreating into what westerners might term 'Russia itself'.
I'm struggling to see where Russia could even play a 4th retreat card without things starting to look stark for the whole SMO, unless any supposed overwhelming counteroffensive is carried out fast.
ps – do we believe this is actually John Mearsheimer's substack? There is so much fake stuff on the internet I start to doubt everything. I guess it probably is genuine. And if it isn't...
I just made that sort of comment above before reading the thread. Will Scurvy is a staple for me every day (and Big Serge as well)
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Please refer to the stated objectives of the SMO and not to Western propaganda when you analyze the situation. The aim is to destroy the military potential (demilitarization) that threatens the Donbas and not to conquer territory. The territory conquered by the Russians is just a byproduct of destroying the military potential. Once the enemy forces collapse, the regime will have to come to the negotiation table, or risk loosing more territory.
Since it is clear that NATO/Ukraine cannot win this war and that the U.S. public appetite for sending endless hundreds of billions of $ to Ukraine is rapidly waning, something has to give sooner rather than later. Biden and the neocons are up against forces from within the Democratic party (RFK) and the Republican party (Trump) to end this thing. Time is not on NATO/Ukraine's side.
Even beyond the diminishing willingness of the U.S. public to continue funding this disaster, there is the simple economic part of it that says we just can't do it. An open-ended spigot of money flowing to Ukraine while there are so many problems at home isn't politically tenable, especially in an election year; and the fact remains that someone has to pay for all of this.
Biden cannot afford for this war of attrition to be dragging on in an election year, therefore we either have to throw in the towel and accept what that implies for NATO and the U.S., or it goes nuclear.
I greatly fear the latter. The neocon dream of carving up Russia is a religion. For them to admit defeat will shatter their cult. Losing political power will finish them, and they know it. It's now or never for them. I believe they are insane enough to push for nuclear war.
Since when did public opinion start to matter?
The rulers will get what they want, elections be damned.
The elections are fake . . .
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol X – Preparing for Power . . . (((SARS-CoV2)))
❝. . . utterly exhaust humanity with dissention, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, by the inoculation of diseases. by want, so that the “Goyim” see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else.❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-x-preparing-for-power-sars
The neocons found a perfect hand puppet in Biden. And with the election looming Biden is desperate for a major victory to boost his dismal poll numbers. He is hell bent on cementing a place in history as a great leader using this proxy war as the vehicle to achieve that goal and taking advice from the same people whose failures in past global conquests are numerous and predictable. There is no “new and improved” neocon 2.0. It’s rehashed strategy and scheming that is doomed to fail spectacularly again. The shine is already wearing off for many Americans who supported our involvement initially but now see it as a drain on our economy and squandering many billions of dollars that could have been spent (misspent) domestically. The only beneficiaries are the builders of the war machine and the corrupt oligarchs siphoning from the tanker loads of cash sent halfway around the world to a country most Americans couldn’t find on a map 3 years ago.
Yep, Ukraine will collapse and the west are faced with another humiliating defeat , or , intervene like they did in 1999 in Kosovo ; if its the latter then that will be the last mistake they make in this war
A key feature of declining empires is catastrophic military blunders at the end. This truly could be their Waterloo. The endless middle east wars, horrible as they were, at least provided oil flow into the homeland and retained dollar hegemony. Such a bounty is not happening with this most costly adventure. The Ukrainian project I'm sure is intended to force regime change and provide the flow of Russian commodities into the control of the globalist empire. However, the odds are that this is simply not going to happen. Crashing empires don't typically reverse course and start thriving again. The wild card is that we've never really had a failing empire in possession of nuclear weapons before.
All the warning signs are there, insomuch, catastrophic loss of judgement by educated idiots with a proven rack record of failure
It's clear to any sensible person that we a flogging a dying horse in Ukraine , but they are so deluded and blinded by bogus Globalist ideology ..maybe a darwin award is our fate
USSR was a failing empire. Yes I know, current political class in the USA is idiotic but hopefully the military leadership is not as mad as them.
I see what you're saying. I would still argue USSR wasn't really a global empire like the Romans or the USA. They never had a magnificent 'homeland' that was the envy of the world. They were always stuck in the quicksand of communism. They never really rose to the level where they were controlling most of the world's commerce. Their downfall didn't throw the rest of the world into total chaos. For example, the dollar remained the world reserve currency. It is amazing though, that their collapse was as peaceful as it was.
The reason they didn’t control the world was not ideological. It was material. In fact, their ideology put them in a position to survive against the Nazis after being a backwards feudal nation only 20 years prior to WWII.
It is truly remarkable what Tsarist Russia turned into under communist rule.
Their problem was that the US was the sole survivor of WWII. The economic destruction foisted on the Soviets by the Nazis set them in perpetual catchup mode, forcing the Soviets to spend far too much on weapons they would not have needed to if the globalist, liberal capitalist scum weren’t hellbent on destroying human progress in the name of profit by any means necessary.
You cannot say you are anti-globalist if you are a capitalist, as globalism is capitalism on steroids.
You talk about the globalist desire to extract Russian commodities, but conveniently ignore that this is exactly how the globalists operated against the Soviets when they sent troops to Russia 100 years ago, and during the Cold War.
Globalism is capitalism, and capitalism is what is preventing progress.
Fuck you and your Jewish god . . . Mammonism and Bolshevism are Jewish stepsisters . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Some of the neocons are expressing considerable doubt about keeping this war going. Ie Hass of Foreign policy.
According to Col Douglas MacGregor, one becomes a general by telling the civilians what they want to hear. So the military is no brake on these very naive activities.
Carving up Russia always was a long shot. They would do it if they got half a chance. In the meantime, they cut relations between Europe and Russia for good to prevent a hegemon on the Eurasian "heartland" that would make the US presence in Europe superfluous.
On the downside, they have created an even bigger hegemon by forcing the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, but I guess that still beats losing Europe. As US loses its grip on the rest of the world, it'll tighten its grip on Europe to squeeze the last Euro (or drop of blood) from the old continent before dumping it in the trash bin of history.
On the part of the Americans this is good business and very rational. What is puzzling is why European leaders would want their own destruction. Some sort of death wish, perhaps?
How many self-inflicted blunders can a regime survive? The “China Shock”, Iraq War, the 2008 Financial Meltdown which led to the formation of BRICS, now this proxy war in Ukraine running concurrently with a Debt Trap and de-dollarization - an entire generation of Americans have only known debacles and decline.
Yes it is quite sad Kevin. I have had a great life and "theoretically" have a comfortable retirement underway. However my Millennial kids , though well educated, are having a much tougher time than I did. The GenZ are screwed both mentally and economically.
Yes X75, the material lives of our children will not be the same as ours. That is not to say though their lives won’t be more rewarding.
It will be very rewarding when the capitalist system collapses and we install socialism on its corpse. You’re right. Then the world will finally know peace
Peace doesn’t come from any economic system or formula. I also don’t even know how to categorize our current system; state capitalism, corporate socialism, corporatism? We have a command economy run by an oligarchy. There are legislative corrections to make, but we also need a shared moral consensus.
RIOTS IN FRANCE, BELGIUM, AND NETHERLANDS ???
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-6-take-over-technique
When the economic decline starts to hit the middle classes, there will be social and political upheaval, which will provide the pretext for the Deep State to install some sort of totalitarian or fascist rule.
Professor -
I write as a former student and current admirer.
There is a question that looms large when I consider your premise.
If the US is as you say ideologically committed & believes it is facing an existential threat, and if it is likely to fail to achieve its goals, it seems left unsaid that the "west", or Ukraine, must reach a point of crying "uncle". This seems crucial to your prediction, to say the least. I must ask for more detail - without straying too far into the domestic political milieu, what does history & your framework imply would need to happen to reach that terminus? To put an even finer point on it, wouldn't the "west" need to reach a decision point where strategic disappointment is balanced against direct confrontation, and a choice is made? Or is the offramp elsewhere, somewhere even more dangerous?
PS speaking of crying "uncle", I recall with amusement the way you would bring up propaganda from WW2 and the rebranding of Stalin as "Uncle Joe". Great memories of your class - it has been knowledge I have made use of my entire professional life. Thanks!
Excellent comment and great to hear from someone that studied under Mearsheimer!
Good comment. The idea of the west crying uncle, which US political leadership has ruled out, means either Ukraine itself cries uncle or some other unnamed (possibly invisible) actor forces the US to do so. And if it be not Ukraine, I think it would either be China - by invading Taiwan - or the CIA by pulling off some mysterious operation that scrambles the chessboard. As to the latter it wouldn't be even remotely the first time. Generally its strategic-level ops aim to foment conflict, not end it, but I can conceive of the CIA deciding the Rus-Ukr conflict has worn America's defense industry resources too far (or risks exposing their shortcomings), and must be stopped.
Military defeat in Ukraine does not pose an existential threat to the US. What does pose an existential threat to US hegemony is the backlash to the economic war the West launched against Russia. Thus, ending the war and the sanctions would help maintain US hegemony for a little while longer. After advising the US administration to arm Ukraine as primary means for "overextending and unbalancing Russia" in 2019, the latest Rand Corp. study on the war in Ukraine warns about the dangers of a prolonged war.
One point glossed over comes at the end of this brilliant piece.
It was Victoria Nuland, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, and many other members of Congress who instigated regime change in Ukraine, putting NEONAZIS on Russia's border in 2014. I do not blame Russia for how it reacted. If this were in reverse and it was the US this had happened too, it is a guarantee that the US would not put up with such a threat on its doorstep.
I'm reminded of Julian Assange who do eloquently said that US REGIME change wars are not meant to end, but rather it is a way to launder US taxpayer money.
I'M SICK of US wars that have killed millions and displaced millions more. That any American believes the endless propaganda to sell elite wars is simply disgusting
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel, Meta, Twitter, TikTok, Black Rock, Netflix, Amazon, and More . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Fascist nonsense from Putin and his useful idiots in the West
Fuck you and your Jewish god . . .
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-6-take-over-technique
Great analysis, as expected from this author. The thing that needs to be understood is that none of this has anything to do with legitimate US defense needs, it is all so much imperial aggression.
The US has badly overplayed its hand here. The sanctions regime is floundering, pushing even friendly countries to ignore it. This has further caused other nations to seriously consider an alternative to the USD as a reserve currency (it was already under pressure from US economically damaging policies), and to diplomatically align against the US. All in all it has made it ever more clear that the US is past peak empire.
What should be communicated to the American public is that all this means that they are set for economic decline, lower growth, and a cracking US fiscal position, in which decades of living beyond its means catches up to them. Perhaps then the domestic pressures will become great enough to reorient US policy. A thin reed to hang your hopes upon I know. Peace now.
I fully agree. The problem is that the current generation of leaders in the West is so full of hubris that it can't admit mistakes.
Zelensky, Biden, Satanism, War, Greed, Theft, Propaganda, Domestic Spying, International Intrigue, Treason, Sedition, FTX, Ukraine, Israel . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed
Thank you for this piece John, which I throughly enjoyed.
Very difficult to know accurate numbers for the dead in this conflict. My own suspicion from reading widely is that the numbers are much higher and likely more skewed than 2:1 (probably greater than 3x dead on the Ukrainian side to the Russian side). There have effectively been 3 Ukrainian armies now, with the 2nd & 3rd iterations (as equipped by 3rd parties) progressively lacking in experience/depth. That experience seems to matter a lot in terms of getting the best from the resources you have.
FWIW, BBC Russia has been trying to track the numbers of Russian servicemen killed and had a tally at just under 30k by the end of May. That probably doesn't include aligned forces (eg Donbass militia, Chechens, Syrians, overseas volunteers, etc) but it may suggest a crude ballpark total figure of ~50k? The Ukraine claims of >>100k seem somewhat exaggerated.
https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1662121781681856512
You reference a number of good pieces by Big Serge. Other good information and analysis sources are the substacks of simplicius76, imetatronink & bmanalysis plus the website of Larry Johnson (sonar21.com)
e.g. Will Schryver wrote a tight piece on attritional warfare - https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-object-of-war
If you are writing follow up articles I would be very interested in how you interpret the power dynamics at play with the European countries. Yes, for now, the EU seems to be following the US' lead in all this. But is there a prospect that some states eventually say that the US' apparent objective to cut them off from Russia as a low cost & convenient supplier of resources, and from China as a major market and a low cost supplier of goods is too high a price to pay? Are they supporting the US strategy here because they still think it can prevail over Russia, but should Russia prevail over Ukraine (and therefore effectively over NATO and the US) do wiser heads start following alternative paths? Does a disarmed & weakened Europe see peaceful & mutually beneficial relationships with Russia and China preferable to following an apparently failing US empire?
The problem is that the "Putin's unprovoked war of aggression" narrative is so powerful that the pro-Russian faction in Europe has had to go into hiding to avoid being publicly slaughtered. They are still there and might come out when public anger over falling living standards removes current leaders from power. But it may well be too late by then. There is still a lot of prosperity in Europe and governments have gotten used to using state funding to compensate for economic losses during the pandemic. There are some protest parties like the AfD in Germany who have gained in the polls due to their opposition to the war. If the trend continues, governments may have to change course next year.
As usual, a very coherent and strong argument. My main disagreement is on your claim that Putin sees this as existential war - his actions speak otherwise. First, Russia is spending a very small fraction of its GDP on this war - most optimistically less than 5%. As a student of nation states, I am sure you know how states mobilize in existential wars. Assume that Soviet levels of spending in WWII (~60%) are beyond reach, they surely could match US level of WWII commitment at ~25%, for example. Second, he is not using Russia dominance in deep strike capability to wreck Ukraine. Russia could knock out Ukraine’s power production capacity in a day and completely collapse Ukraine’s economy the way US did to Iraq in 1991, but Putin has refused to do so (Fall and Winter campaign was concentrated on transformers as retaliation for Kerch bridge attack). Putin has also refused to strike bridges over Dniepr, which would sever Ukraine in half along Europe’s widest river, greatly undermining their logistics. All this leads me to conclude Putin is aiming for negotiations or a frozen conflict.
Frozen conflict is a defeat for Russia. This war will end when the EU starts to scream.
Yes you make a valid point here. Few really know what goes on in Putin's mind. One thing I am sure off though is that he is sharper by far than the deteriorating Biden and the bumbling lying fool Johnson put together (and squared).
Putin's soft approach has come under attack from nationalists in Russia; however, considering the international dimensions, he was right to use a gradual approach. The real war is economic and not military. If Putin had lost the support of major leaders from the Brics and the global South, the Russian economy would have tanked. As it is, only 15% of the world population support the sanctions.
Moreover, there was no appetite for a general mobilization and a war economy that would impact ordinary Russian when the SMO was launched. As the West's Russophobia increases and the concrete threat from Nato becomes more apparent to the Russian public, a general mobilization will find greater acceptance in Russia.
The SMO was to destroy the military potential of Ukraine to protect the Donbas and not to conquer Ukraine. Territorial conquest may be the consequence of the war, but it was never intended. As Nato escalated by rearming Ukraine, the partial mobilization was a proportional response.
It's important to understand that Putin only launched the SMO after having exhausted all diplomatic means for 8 years. And when he acted, it was with moderation.
I'm not Russian, but considering the US's actions during the last 30, the Russians are absolutely right to be concerned about an existential threat.
Everything mentioned in this article is true and valid but it only tells part of the story of why this conflict is so intractable. In fact when geopolitical pundits ascribe the conflict to these geopolitical issues only they are in effect providing a wafer thin veneer of plausible deniability for the political classes of the US, UK and EU. A majority of whom are thoroughly compromised and corrupted by their own or their political parties prior dealings with the cesspit Ukraine turned into through the 8 years of Obama..
Starting from the assumption that the US has been run by various criminal elites since at least Bush v1, and with the middle east/Afghanistan once again part of the Bush's sphere of corruption, from 2009 Obama's team gravitated to the Ukraine, particularly so after their North African and Syrian ventures went off the rails. In fact Obama's team along with the Democrats collectively made Ukraine their base for any number of murky operations. From straight laundering of foreign aid $ Billions (part of which was used to co-opt and make complicit the GOP), through to various Government and business frauds, natural resource extraction including illegal Uranium trades, human and drug trafficking and finally the illegal bioweapon labs and secret pharma testing, 8 years of Obama turned Ukraine into the toxic time bomb we see today. All of which is easily proven with open source research.
Is it any wonder there is bipartisan support for the war? Both the GOP and Democrats have made billions via the Ukraine and they would rather see the country erased than for the truth to be exposed. The Biden family corruption has exposed the tip of a very dirty iceberg. Congress tried to impeach Trump for merely asking Zelensky to look into corruption in Ukraine. Remember there were quite a few republicans in favor of impeachment, I wonder why...It is reasonable to assume it isn't limited to Congress. In fact politicians and parties in the UK and EU are equally compromised by activities in the Ukraine, we just haven't had much exposure...yet.
Will the penny drop with the citizens of the US, UK and EU that their political class are pushing war because they are compromised and corrupted by their dealings in the Ukraine? Highly unlikely until the pundit class start joining the obvious facts and calling out the hypocrisy and frankly evil immorality of the political elites most to blame.
The geopolitical issues are part of it. But seriously have we ever seen a collection of more desperate and aggressive warmongering amongst a vast swathe of political elites? Even Gulf War 2 after 9/11 had dissenting voices. Where are the moderates? Forget dismissing this as conspiracy it's high time each and every politician pushing war PROVE to us that they have had not one dollar of benefit from the Ukraine in the last 15 years...Until they do we should simply assume they are compromised and corrupt and and are desperately hoping that a prolonged war either brings victory and narrative control or destroys any evidence of their prior corruption and malfeasance.
All those points are not part of his analysis. He is using the realist strategy for predicting the outcome. He has applied his theories to the Ukraine conflict for many years hoping to dissuade people of the folly of continuing NATO expansion to Russias borders. He has been as warning for some time the Based on his knowledge and of great power conflicts he has warned for some time that the results would be disastrous.
A core assumption in the realist strategy is rationality of actors. Due to their decades long corruption, fraud, secret kickbacks on aid and illegal bioweapon research in Ukraine and the risk of any of these being widely exposed, the actors from the so called `rules based liberal west' are no longer acting rationally.
My point is, it is far more intellectually honest to admit this fact than to simply ignore it and continue to promote a flawed strategy with a faulty core assumption.
Delving into all the complexities doesn’t change the outcome. In a great power conflict who comes out on top?
I don't want to defend Obama, but I don't think he was a foreign policy hawk. Obama had no interest in foreign affaires. He left that to VP Biden. Obama avoided a full scale war in Syria and left Libya to France and the UK. He preached liberal democracy in Ukraine, but refused on provide lethal arms on the ground that Russia has "escalatory dominance" in Ukraine. It was the Deep State that made Trump arm Ukraine even though he hated it. The Trump affair shows that US presidents are powerless to implement foreign policy the Deep State doesn't want.
This is entirely the fault of the West who are going insane due to decadence and hedonism ; well I mean, picking a fight with the largest country in the world , with a people made paranoid and fatalistic by foreign invasions ; a country with the most Nukes ; what could possibly go wrong ?
Dr. Mearsheimer, it seems to me, is an optimist. There appears to be a high chance of the west loosing before russians winning. Will europe hold economically & socially? Isn't recent surge of AfD in germany an ominous symptom of "nationalists"getting on top of "globalist" (which is a current dichotomy instead of increasingly irrelevant left vs right dichotomy). everywhere in europe?
I would argue this dammed war will accelerate social divisions we are already seeing post covid, ESG and the current culture wars issues. Europe's social welfare states are becoming more expensive every year. At some point they will fail and the fallout will not be pretty.
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol X – Preparing for Power . . . (((SARS-CoV2)))
❝. . . utterly exhaust humanity with dissention, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, by the inoculation of diseases. by want, so that the “Goyim” see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else.❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-x-preparing-for-power-sars
PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 6 – Take-Over Technique (agriculture) . . .
❝We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life, alleging that it arises from the decline of agriculture and cattle-breeding: we shall further undermine artfully and deeply sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy . . .❞
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-6-take-over-technique
Dear Mr Mearsheimer, thank you for shedding light on complex issues. However I notice that you devoted 9 paragraphs on the Russian goals and threat environment while you allowed 1 paragraph for the equivalent topic on Ukraine's side. The bulk of your analysis thus seems to be West vs Russia. While this makes sense (it's becoming a small planet afterall) to a degree I think one should not deny the Ukrainians agency in the matter, especially since, as you rightfully put it, they face an existential threat. It would be interesting to read more from you on the dynamics taking place within Ukraine both pre and post war. Ultimately it is hard to imagine a world where Ukranians wouldn't want some of what their European neighbors have: economic prosperity. Incentives matter. Thus they have agency in the matter.
Since the conflict began as a civil war, a pertinent question might be WHICH Ukrainians are to be denied “agency”?
True. A balanced analysis would have to take account of opinion polls and their evolution over time. Looking at the latest support for the war. Here are a couple: https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx#:~:text=Backing%20for%20the%20war%20effort,%25)%20support%20continuing%20the%20war.
https://www.iri.org/news/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-confidence-in-president-zelensky-a-surge-in-support-for-nato-membership-russia-should-pay-for-reconstruction/
Filthy lying kike . . .
Documents leaked from Soros’ “Open Society Foundation” show how the Jewish billionaire behind Hillary Clinton gave orders to the State Department and manipulated media coverage of events in Ukraine . . .
https://nationalvanguard.org/2016/09/documents-show-soros-ran-us-foreign-policy-on-post-coup-ukraine/
One doesn't exclude the other. Nothing in the National Vanguard article denies the Ukrainians agency in the matter. It shows the Dems egging on pro EU Ukrainians. Ukrainians by and large embraced these US efforts. Others might not have been that interested but THEY did. Doesn't that count for something? Ukrainians might be many things but they don't look like easily manipulated puppets to me. These people were interested in getting a life closer to what the Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Czechs and other Eastern Europeans have been having since they joined the EU.
I'm a Scandanavian . . . If the Russians exterminate every single Ukrainian, I'm o.k. with that . . . Zelensky is an Israeli operative and the Ukrainian Parliament is full of Jewish apparatchiks . . . The Jews started the war . . . fuck you and your Jewish god . . . FIGHT YOUR OWN WARS, YOU FILTHY LYING KIKE . . .
Why Do the Ukrainians Allow Their Country to Be Completely Run by Jews? https://russia-insider.com/en/why-do-ukrainians-allow-their-country-be-completely-run-jews/ri27010
A proxy has no agency.
Ukraine had agency under Yanukovich who tried to get the best from the EU and from Russia. The US toppled him to install a US puppet regime. Elections don't mean anything in Ukraine.
The oligarchs got Zelensky elected on a platform of making peace in the Donbas. He made war because the far-right that controls Ukraine since the 2014 coup would otherwise have killed him. Today, he's a US puppet whose regime can only survive with the cash injections from the West. In exchange for the billions of dollars he has to lead his people to the slaughter.
What agency is that?
The author one of Putin's useful idiots
Fuck you and your Jewish god.
❝. . . the present conflict is a huge distraction from the fact that, for decades, the biggest threat to Ukraine hasn’t been Russia, but financiers and speculators operating with impunity within Ukraine’s borders to exploit ethnic Ukrainians and plunder their resources.❞
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2023/02/17/jewish-corruption-in-ukraine/
When did you stop spelling Kiev correctly? Precise date would be helpful, thanks.
When did you become so petty minded and gormless ?