A landing on continental Iran is more like Gallipoli. Landing on Kharg is more like Tarawa but with Japanese Army on another island that can dominate the whole island with firepower.
Would the Iranians blow the oil tanks and set the Gulf on fire if they thought they might lose Kharg Island? I can't see the Iranians allowing the oil to go to the US and Israel. What type of ecological catastrophe would that cause?
Does it seem to anyone that the US military or Isn'tReal gives a damn about 'ecological' issues?
In 2025 the US military consumed ~360,000 bpd. If it was a country it would be 18th after Columbia, a country of 53 million. It's a travelling eco-disaster all on its own.
A valuable conversation, however, my take on the origin of the war is this.
Marco Rubio spilled the beans when he basically said we knew that the Israelis were going to strike and that would leave our bases and troops vulnerable. Thus, we had to join the Israelis. What Marco left out was that the Iranians had made considerable concessions during negotiations that would have given Trump a deal which Trump could then claim was better than Obama’s JCPOA. Moreover, Marco must have known Netanyahu panicked because he did not want Trump to make a deal because that would send Netanyahu’s 40-year dream of destroying Iran up in smoke. Thus, Netanyahu decided to go to war before Trump agreed to a deal with Iran. Once that decision was made, Trump, always wanting to appear in charge, thought his only option was to join Netanyahu in attacking Iran.
Trump is 100% responsible for anything that occurs as a result of this (if it even happens). As such, if there's a substantial loss it will NOT be Iran's fault; hence not an excuse for a nuclear retaliation by either Israel or the US.
Iran has been on Netanyahu's hitlist for decades along with others that have already been taken out at Israel's behest, and we are still doing it's dirty work. All of our previous presidents have accommodated Israel's demands, from Iraq to Libya, decades of slaughter. I hold all those presidents , well the American government accountable. Interesting, and disgusting that we take our orders from a man who has and continues to implement a genocide.
I expect the CIA will trot out some armed and opportunistic faction that will carve up what is presently known as Iran. I expect US ground troops will occupy Kharg Island, something Iran's military cannot stop through force of arms. Another long US military occupation will likely follow, perhaps just essential 'bases' needed to keep Hormuz mostly open. 'Victory' is unlikely, but frankly not Trump's goal. He wants to deny China the oil, cut the nuts off the mullah regime, and carve up Iran. For a period measured in years but not decades, he is likely to succeed.
AI Dreaming in technicolor. Iran has a million-man military. One that withstood the 8-year US-backed Iraq attempt under 'staunch ally' Saddam, who used the chemical WMDs supplied by the US/EU/NATO.
Just send Kegsbreath, he can beat the Iranians all by himself...
Iraq had a massive military, as well, prior to he US destroying it. The mullahs are not popular in Iran, and their ability to rule through fear declines when they are all in their caves, trying not to be 'martyred'. Like Iraq, the IRGC relies heavily on oil revenue to make payroll and purchase weapon systems. When the oil revenue goes away . . .
Iraq's military brass were bought off, like in Venezuela. Besides, that 8-year war with Iran cost the Iraqi military bigly, with insufficient revenues to rebuild. And even the dumbass US military braintrust knew at least that much.
I'd bet most of the IRCG and Iranian military would fight for free to kill US invaders. While US sailors throw t-shirts, mops and whatever down the toilets to avoid dying FOR ISRAEL
The US can't even get the Iraqi Kurds to spearhead the attack on Iran FOR ISRAEL. Turkmenistan? A few ballistic missiles and that threat evaporates.
Iran is different, has had decades to rebuild and create a different strategy than waiting for 'US boots on the ground' to act.
But keep on selling the delusion that the US 'has the greatest military in the world. The one being thrashed anywhere it attacks a peer or near-peer opponent. Or even guys wearing sandals with AK47s.
The Gulf State 'allies' are finding out just what US 'protection' means. The US will 'protect' their US assets... just like they did Russia's... steal them the second they don't follow US diktats. "Bought off'... where have we seen that before? As the US$ gets reduced to toilet paper value.
The US is slowly learning the biggest FAFO lesson in history.
I am not aware of any Islamic sect that is immune to bribery. The CIA will continue to do CIA things. Arab oil-exporters have an interest in the safe flow of their product to the global market. Presently, only Iran's mullah brigade, fresh off having their nuts cut by the US Air Force, endangers this.
And the US$ Reserve Currency System will continue to deteriorate, even your Rothschild handlers are banking on it... literally.
In 2016: The Rothschild family, currently led by Lord Jacob Rothschild, recently announced that they are moving out of the U.S. Dollar, the global reserve currency, into gold and ‘other currencies.’
Lord Jacob Rothschild explains in the semi-annual RIT Capital Partners report:
"Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar's rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields."
The Apex Zio-rats began abandoning the US$ ship a decade ago... they didn't send you the memo? The kicker is that Russia and China are not letting the Rothschilds back into their banking/finance sectors, and are obviously advising BRICS+ to kick the Rothschild Class out permanently.
Ironically, soon "you will own nothing" may apply to the Rothschilds and their sycophants (that's you). Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of well-heeled Zio-terrorists.
The debt-to-GDP, the annual deficit as a % of GDP, and the unfunded liabilities of the biggest social welfare programs pose challenges to the bankster status quo. Never underestimate these money-sorcerers ability to find new pockets to stuff with fantastically larger amounts of debt. I hedge with PM, outside the system, land with water under it, and copper jacketed lead.
It’s interesting to see again and again that realists - ie those who look at what is real rather than to what they would like to be real - are mostly right. In Ukraine it was evident the West would have never won simply because of the asymmetry between what the Russians were ready to do facing an existential threat and what the US were ready to do facing no threat. Here again you simply have three scenarios, two of which almost impossible and one - nightmare - with over 90% probability. The first two are surrender of the regime with an alternative in place and surrender of the regime with an Iraqi/ Syrian/ Lybian type of outcome. The third is the regime holds and requires the US to leave the Gulf in order to stop. The US would never accept for several reasons without going up the escalation ladder: first they strike the oil infrastructure and desalination, causing a retaliation on the Gulf states. Then they put feet on the ground deploying more and more troops throughout time. Any chance of a ceasefire in the style of the 12 day war? Even if the Iranians accepted it for whatever reason they would arm themselves like crazy (trying this time to build a nuclear weapon) and therefore it would last very shortly. Chances for the US to declare victory and leave? Even if for whatever reason Iran quit then you would fall into the same ceasefire scenario or Israel would keep the US in threatening the use of a nuclear bomb. China and Russia supporting the US in the negotiation process? Again the Iranians would keep asking security guarantees that would be unacceptable for the US. There is no way out. A long protracted dangerous and bloody war is in front of us. As well as a nightmare of an economic crisis. PS: not to mention cascading effects on other fronts as it could be the case that Taiwan falls in Chinese hands without firing a bullet
Seeing the world through Exceptionalist glasses. Realism? More like might-makes-right.
"Surrender of the regime." Sure, both the Apartheid Genocidal Illegal Occupation Regime called Israel and the US Warmonger Regime SHOULD surrender. Immediately and Permanently.
Iran never was any 'threat' to the US, and if Israel had never been forced upon the world by the Rothschilds, we'd likely have peace by now.
The US has no legitimate cause to have 800 bases around the world. Yankee GO HOME. The world has mostly been asking since the end of WW2, and definitely since the dissolution of the USSR.
If Taiwan should be 'independent' from China, then so should Hawaii be from the US. And Puerto Rico. Guam. etc.
Funny how USicans can see the splinters in other's eyes, but not see the logs in their own.
A landing on continental Iran is more like Gallipoli. Landing on Kharg is more like Tarawa but with Japanese Army on another island that can dominate the whole island with firepower.
Does that island even has a beach?
Wonderful watching Professor Mearsheimer get angry at the stupidity of this war around the 31 minute mark. Never quite seen that before.
this was a great talk indeed - thanks to you and Tom
You were mocking dead kids, but now you're getting hit
Iranian missiles have your entire skyline lit
And you cry victim, and say you didn't start this
But the whole world sees that your lies are retarded
Now you feel terror like the Palestinians
How does it feel to have bombs drop on your civilians?
You could have avoided all this if you wanted to
But humanity never expected good behavior from you
https://griobhtha1.substack.com/p/boom-boom-tel-aviv-and-british-investigative
Would the Iranians blow the oil tanks and set the Gulf on fire if they thought they might lose Kharg Island? I can't see the Iranians allowing the oil to go to the US and Israel. What type of ecological catastrophe would that cause?
Does it seem to anyone that the US military or Isn'tReal gives a damn about 'ecological' issues?
In 2025 the US military consumed ~360,000 bpd. If it was a country it would be 18th after Columbia, a country of 53 million. It's a travelling eco-disaster all on its own.
These clowns only care about fake value.
They call it 'money' whatever that means.
Mo-nee mo-nay
More of nothing?
Nada
A pop of bubblegum?
They live...
Thanks for your great work Professor!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
A valuable conversation, however, my take on the origin of the war is this.
Marco Rubio spilled the beans when he basically said we knew that the Israelis were going to strike and that would leave our bases and troops vulnerable. Thus, we had to join the Israelis. What Marco left out was that the Iranians had made considerable concessions during negotiations that would have given Trump a deal which Trump could then claim was better than Obama’s JCPOA. Moreover, Marco must have known Netanyahu panicked because he did not want Trump to make a deal because that would send Netanyahu’s 40-year dream of destroying Iran up in smoke. Thus, Netanyahu decided to go to war before Trump agreed to a deal with Iran. Once that decision was made, Trump, always wanting to appear in charge, thought his only option was to join Netanyahu in attacking Iran.
Trump is 100% responsible for anything that occurs as a result of this (if it even happens). As such, if there's a substantial loss it will NOT be Iran's fault; hence not an excuse for a nuclear retaliation by either Israel or the US.
Iran has been on Netanyahu's hitlist for decades along with others that have already been taken out at Israel's behest, and we are still doing it's dirty work. All of our previous presidents have accommodated Israel's demands, from Iraq to Libya, decades of slaughter. I hold all those presidents , well the American government accountable. Interesting, and disgusting that we take our orders from a man who has and continues to implement a genocide.
I expect the CIA will trot out some armed and opportunistic faction that will carve up what is presently known as Iran. I expect US ground troops will occupy Kharg Island, something Iran's military cannot stop through force of arms. Another long US military occupation will likely follow, perhaps just essential 'bases' needed to keep Hormuz mostly open. 'Victory' is unlikely, but frankly not Trump's goal. He wants to deny China the oil, cut the nuts off the mullah regime, and carve up Iran. For a period measured in years but not decades, he is likely to succeed.
AI Dreaming in technicolor. Iran has a million-man military. One that withstood the 8-year US-backed Iraq attempt under 'staunch ally' Saddam, who used the chemical WMDs supplied by the US/EU/NATO.
Just send Kegsbreath, he can beat the Iranians all by himself...
Iraq had a massive military, as well, prior to he US destroying it. The mullahs are not popular in Iran, and their ability to rule through fear declines when they are all in their caves, trying not to be 'martyred'. Like Iraq, the IRGC relies heavily on oil revenue to make payroll and purchase weapon systems. When the oil revenue goes away . . .
Iraq's military brass were bought off, like in Venezuela. Besides, that 8-year war with Iran cost the Iraqi military bigly, with insufficient revenues to rebuild. And even the dumbass US military braintrust knew at least that much.
I'd bet most of the IRCG and Iranian military would fight for free to kill US invaders. While US sailors throw t-shirts, mops and whatever down the toilets to avoid dying FOR ISRAEL
The US can't even get the Iraqi Kurds to spearhead the attack on Iran FOR ISRAEL. Turkmenistan? A few ballistic missiles and that threat evaporates.
Iran is different, has had decades to rebuild and create a different strategy than waiting for 'US boots on the ground' to act.
But keep on selling the delusion that the US 'has the greatest military in the world. The one being thrashed anywhere it attacks a peer or near-peer opponent. Or even guys wearing sandals with AK47s.
The Gulf State 'allies' are finding out just what US 'protection' means. The US will 'protect' their US assets... just like they did Russia's... steal them the second they don't follow US diktats. "Bought off'... where have we seen that before? As the US$ gets reduced to toilet paper value.
The US is slowly learning the biggest FAFO lesson in history.
Besides, Where's Nutty?
I am not aware of any Islamic sect that is immune to bribery. The CIA will continue to do CIA things. Arab oil-exporters have an interest in the safe flow of their product to the global market. Presently, only Iran's mullah brigade, fresh off having their nuts cut by the US Air Force, endangers this.
And the US$ Reserve Currency System will continue to deteriorate, even your Rothschild handlers are banking on it... literally.
In 2016: The Rothschild family, currently led by Lord Jacob Rothschild, recently announced that they are moving out of the U.S. Dollar, the global reserve currency, into gold and ‘other currencies.’
Lord Jacob Rothschild explains in the semi-annual RIT Capital Partners report:
"Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar's rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields."
The Apex Zio-rats began abandoning the US$ ship a decade ago... they didn't send you the memo? The kicker is that Russia and China are not letting the Rothschilds back into their banking/finance sectors, and are obviously advising BRICS+ to kick the Rothschild Class out permanently.
Ironically, soon "you will own nothing" may apply to the Rothschilds and their sycophants (that's you). Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of well-heeled Zio-terrorists.
The debt-to-GDP, the annual deficit as a % of GDP, and the unfunded liabilities of the biggest social welfare programs pose challenges to the bankster status quo. Never underestimate these money-sorcerers ability to find new pockets to stuff with fantastically larger amounts of debt. I hedge with PM, outside the system, land with water under it, and copper jacketed lead.
excellent!
Excellent tour de force, few people put the argument so clearly or concisely than Prof M.
It’s interesting to see again and again that realists - ie those who look at what is real rather than to what they would like to be real - are mostly right. In Ukraine it was evident the West would have never won simply because of the asymmetry between what the Russians were ready to do facing an existential threat and what the US were ready to do facing no threat. Here again you simply have three scenarios, two of which almost impossible and one - nightmare - with over 90% probability. The first two are surrender of the regime with an alternative in place and surrender of the regime with an Iraqi/ Syrian/ Lybian type of outcome. The third is the regime holds and requires the US to leave the Gulf in order to stop. The US would never accept for several reasons without going up the escalation ladder: first they strike the oil infrastructure and desalination, causing a retaliation on the Gulf states. Then they put feet on the ground deploying more and more troops throughout time. Any chance of a ceasefire in the style of the 12 day war? Even if the Iranians accepted it for whatever reason they would arm themselves like crazy (trying this time to build a nuclear weapon) and therefore it would last very shortly. Chances for the US to declare victory and leave? Even if for whatever reason Iran quit then you would fall into the same ceasefire scenario or Israel would keep the US in threatening the use of a nuclear bomb. China and Russia supporting the US in the negotiation process? Again the Iranians would keep asking security guarantees that would be unacceptable for the US. There is no way out. A long protracted dangerous and bloody war is in front of us. As well as a nightmare of an economic crisis. PS: not to mention cascading effects on other fronts as it could be the case that Taiwan falls in Chinese hands without firing a bullet
Seeing the world through Exceptionalist glasses. Realism? More like might-makes-right.
"Surrender of the regime." Sure, both the Apartheid Genocidal Illegal Occupation Regime called Israel and the US Warmonger Regime SHOULD surrender. Immediately and Permanently.
Iran never was any 'threat' to the US, and if Israel had never been forced upon the world by the Rothschilds, we'd likely have peace by now.
The US has no legitimate cause to have 800 bases around the world. Yankee GO HOME. The world has mostly been asking since the end of WW2, and definitely since the dissolution of the USSR.
If Taiwan should be 'independent' from China, then so should Hawaii be from the US. And Puerto Rico. Guam. etc.
Funny how USicans can see the splinters in other's eyes, but not see the logs in their own.
https://austinsikora.substack.com/p/cornering-the-rat?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=32cg97
Would "upgrading to paid" provide an option for a comments section not dominated by 2 digit IQ's?
Ouch. Going for Jared, Witkoff and the Israeli lobby. Love it 😊
Jar-head?