Will Russia Strike Targets in Europe?

On 28 May 2026, I was on “Deep Dive” talking with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis about the possibility of getting a ceasefire in Gaza as well as the prospects of Russia attacking NATO countries with conventional weapons and maybe even nuclear weapons.

I made the case that Israel and its supporters in the US are the main obstacles to getting a ceasefire with Iran and eventually fashioning a peace agreement. I also emphasized that Trump’s obvious limits as a deal-maker and diplomat contribute to the problem in significant ways.

On Ukraine, I challenged the argument we hear in the West these days that Ukraine has turned the tide and is winning on the battlefield. On the contrary, The Russians continue to advance, albeit slowly, and there is virtually no chance that Ukraine is going to recapture the large slice of territory it has already lost. The only interesting question is how much more territory will Russia take before there is a frozen conflict.

But then there is the air war, where Ukraine, with help from NATO, has significantly increased its drone and missile strikes on the Russian homeland, often hitting civilian targets. Moreover, both the Europeans and the Ukrainians promise to increase the number and sophistication of the strikes moving forward.

These attacks are not going to rescue the situation on the battlefield for Ukraine, but there is no question that Russian leaders consider them intolerable and are determined to use force to stop them. Toward that end, they are bombing Kyiv more extensively than they have at any point in the war. And if that doesn’t work, it appears that Putin will authorize striking select targets in NATO countries with conventional weapons. And if that doesn’t coerce the Europeans and the Ukrainians into stopping the drone and missile attacks, Russia might use limited nuclear strikes to achieve that goal. Obviously, this is an extremely dangerous situation.