Why Israel Is in Deep Trouble
On 15 May 2024, I was in Sydney, Australia, where I spoke at the Centre for Independent Studies about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. I analyzed both the war in Gaza, which started on October 7 and continues to rage; and the fighting between Iran on one side and Israel and the US on the other side, that took place between 1 April and 19 April 2024.
I then assessed the consequences of these two conflicts for Israel, the US, and Iran.
John, while this is a very well done and comprehensive presentation, part of how you are framing the narrative is inaccurate on a deeper level, and as such is also disempowering to the Gazan people - your misplaced and distracting refrain of "Israel vs Hamas", when the actuality is an Israeli war on the Gazan people.
Hamas is, to the people of Gaza, what Sinn Féin was in the 1980s to the people of Northern Ireland. The geographic focus is far more accurately on the people, not the party. Here is an essay expanding this more accurate frame.
It's Gaza, not Hamas: The Phrase “Israel’s War with Hamas” Denies That Israel’s War Is On Gaza & Denies The Gazans’ Right To Choose Their Own Leaders & Destiny..
LINK: https://ericbrooks.substack.com/p/its-gaza-not-hamas
Following the hearings in the Hague this week, if the ICJ does not grant the additional provisional measures requested by South Africa, then three things will happen:
(i) Israel will see that as a 'green light' to do whatever they want in Rafah, i.e. to clear Gaza of all Palestinians, so that Zionist settlors can take their land.
(ii) By the time the ICJ genocide trial is heard in 2 years time, Gaza, as people knew it before October 2023, will no longer exist on the map.
(iii) Those who are alive in Gaza today will either be dead, or or have been evacuated to the Sinai desert, or elsewhere. The memory of Gaza will have been erased from history by Israel.
That, is not only genocide, it is will also mark the beginning of the end of the court, as the global south will eventually cohere, in order to bring about a new international system, by creating their own global institutions, to compete with the UN. So, this is a pivotal moment not only for the survival of the Palestinian people, but also for the survival of the international rules based system.
I have posted a link to the hearings which took place on Thursday & Friday under the heading 'International Court of Justice - Hearings & Decisions' on the 'International Court of Justice' page at www.diplomaticlawguide.com. As Professor Vaughan Lowe KC submitted on behalf of South Africa: (i) Genocide is not self-defence; (ii) the absolute prohibition against genocicde is not only universal, it is also a jus cogens norm of international law, i.e. there is and can be, no exception or justification for genocide; and (iii) self-defence is not even available to Israel as a defence, because it is an occupying power. Israel was legally represented by members of its foreign service, i.e. by employees of the state, and not by independent legal counsel. So, what if any weight can the court attach to their contested submissions? I did not hear these Israeli foreign service employees, raise a single legal argument in rebuttal of any the three fundamental legal points submitted by Professor Lowe KC. Each of these points has a irrefutable basis i.e. a solid foundation in international law, i.e. they are not capable of legal rebuttal. So, Israel has no legal defence to the application made by South Africa. That is the lens through which a judge should make a legal determination, and not on the basis of an emotive narrative which contradicts documented facts, e.g. the discovery of mass graves at multiple locations in and around hospitals in Gaza. Israel submitted that these were 'exceptional' i.e. a one-off, and that not a single member of the medical staff at these hsopitals had been harmed by Israel. So, lets see what the judges decide. Will they be swayed by: (i) appeals to emotion and/or (ii) political pressure; or will they apply rules of international law to the facts as documented on the ground in Gaza, i.e. to reality?