The Iran Roller Coaster
On 26 May 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about Trump’s constantly changing rhetoric about whether he is going to re-start the bombing campaign against Iran or is about to sign a peace agreement with Tehran. We also talked about the downside of Trump conducting diplomacy in public, on the fly, and apparently pretty much by himself. In addition, we talked about Putin’s decision to significantly ratchet up the bombing campaign against Kyiv. It seems clear that Russia believes that both Ukraine and its European allies think they are free to attack the Russian homeland without prompting serious Russian retaliation. Moscow apparently has decided to show them they are wrong and hopefully establish a meaningful deterrent against attacks directed at mother Russia. Finally, the Judge and I discussed at length my debate with Steve Walt against Victoria Newland and Mike Pompeo in Toronto last week.
The roller coaster has a specific mechanical cause that your "conducting diplomacy in public, on the fly" observation identifies precisely. Each public statement constrains the next one. Announcing proximity to a deal commits the position in front of the domestic audience. Threatening escalation commits the opposite position in front of the same audience. The corrections oscillate because each public commitment creates the conditions for its own reversal within hours.
In control systems engineering this is called hunting. The thermostat overshoots hot, overcorrects to cold, overshoots again. The system oscillates because the feedback delay exceeds the response time. Public diplomacy on the fly has the same architecture: the counterpartys response arrives after the public commitment has already locked in the next position, so every correction overshoots. Private diplomacy avoids hunting because the feedback loop is closed and fast. Public diplomacy makes it open and slow, which is why the roller coaster cant find its equilibrium.
I was in Iran in 1980 in Eagle Claw. Roller coaster?... No. It's been one long disastrous proxy war to resteal Iran -- no matter what we have to lie, cheat, or steal to accomplish it, including jumping in bed with Zionism = Fascism.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/art-display/x-rubicon-the-hidden-casualties-of-secret-wars,21079