I still say this is nothing but a giant grift for the US to normalize collecting tolls on ships passing through the straights. There's potential for billions to be collected.
The US won't ever see a dime of the tolls to pass Hormuz, al Mandib, or Malacca for that matter. That was another dementia-patient Trumpy hallucination.
I watched the video earlier on Thursday and greatly appreciate Professor Mearsheimer's analysis of the challenging situation facing the United States and the world. These developments are truly lamentable.
Keep the blockade in place and tighten it further. Cut off the IRGC’s revenue and choke off critical imports. No oil out, no money in. Every day this continues, the regime gets weaker, its proxies get starved, and its ability to fund and sustain operations erodes. Israel has already degraded their regional network, and the U.S. has them boxed in economically and militarily. Force them to shut in their wells and absorb the mounting damage that comes with it.
Stay the course. This is sustained, compounding pressure, and it is working. Keep it on until they fold and give up their enriched uranium and ballistic missiles.
I see you issuing lots of orders. Any volunteers to try to carry them out? Since the regular US armed forces are distinctly unwilling. Mr Trump is a dead man walking, as President. He may well believe he has nothing to lose, so like some previous dictators he seems to be trying to take the world down with him.
Yes, I know that the USA is supposed by many to be a republic (it has never even tried to be a democracy). The fault lies mostly with those who have allowed Mr Trump to have his head. He should have been restrained long ago.
This is false and largely fanciful. Claims that U.S. forces are unwilling to carry out orders have no basis in reality or how the chain of command actually works, and calling Donald Trump a “dead man walking” or invoking dictators is rhetoric, not analysis. The U.S. remains a constitutional republic with functioning institutions, checks, and elections.
You are still issuing orders. That suggests that you are suffering from the delusion that I work for you. (I don't).
Perhaps what I said is rhetorical. Who decided that what I write on Substack must be what you call "analysis"? By the way, how do you define "analysis"? Do you believe that analysis and rhetoric are always necessarily mutually exclusive? It looks very much as if you classify your opinions as analysis, and mine as rhetoric - for no other reason than that yours are yours, and mine are not.
Black is white, right is wrong. Your 'facts' are anything but, are actually 100% US MSM narrative nonsense. That $450million/day is at best an estimate pulled out of some US gov't wonk's ass. Iran is dealing outside US$ Reserve Currency System (SWIFT etc.), where the US can look and see what every other country is doing trade-wise. By definition, the 'shadow tankers' don't show in the US systems. DUH.
Milgram and Zimbardo showed how this Illegitimate Authority gaslight-gambit works.
Jaffee's problem is, as hard as he tries, he has no authority here, no clipboard, no white lab-coat to pretend he's in charge and his 'facts' are real.
You’re proving the point. You dismiss any data you don’t like as “MSM nonsense,” then replace it with assumptions and attitude. Even if some volumes move outside SWIFT or via shadow tankers, that doesn’t mean they move freely or at scale. Those channels are costly, inefficient, and constrained. That’s exactly what pressure looks like.
Dragging in Stanley Milgram and Philip Zimbardo doesn’t make your case stronger. It’s a distraction. This isn’t about lab experiments or “authority,” it’s about whether Iran can export oil normally under pressure. It can’t.
And no, this isn’t about me having “authority.” It’s about whether your claims match reality. They don’t.
Hey buddy I am glad you found a new pen pal.WowDont you watch sports walk outdoors play golf or tennis’s eat takeout food get laid?Do you think these Arabs give a hoot in hell about you.Are you a paid operater?Get a life man
The sort of rude response I would have excepted from you. Having read your ignorant, war mongering responses to others, I realize engaging with you further is not worth my energy or time.
Thankfully I was blessed with a moral compass.
Maybe the US forces carrying out illegal orders, need a quick look at The Nuremberg Trials and their outcomes … ‘doing what I was told’ doesn’t cut it.
Unfortunately for the point you are making Iran, is getting oil out. Not as much as they would like of course but still millions of barrels which is enough to sustain them.
When Iran kicked the Shah out and nationalized the oil industry, the Western operators shut it down. Rather than ask the big multi-nationals to stay and reopen the fields, instead the Iranians bit the bullet and let the fields collapse. It took them twenty years to restore production while they steadfastly refused to let the majors come in and help them.
In the Iraq/Iran war, Iran suffered from three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand fatalities Plus tens of thousands of civilians killed or injured in chemical attacks on Iranian. The precursors for the chemical agents were supplied to Saddam by America to help him fight the war. The war ended in a stalemate where American backed Saddam ended with nothing gained after having started the war. To put in perspective, it would be like America getting a million plus military/civilian casualties in a conflict.
Iran/Persia has been around for three thousand years. A lot of entities have tried to dominate their country in that period and they all failed. For the Iranians when a new conflict is forced on them its.....been there, done that, here we go again. ...... The Iranians are secure in the knowledge that while many have tried, Iran/Persia is still here and they are not.
Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports.
According to Kpler, there has been no confirmed Iranian tanker making it through the U.S. blockade zone. Iran-linked ships may cross the Strait of Hormuz, but they are not getting past the line from the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Sea. Storage is the choke point. Iran has roughly three weeks before it runs out of room, and Kharg Island, where most exports are staged, is close to capacity. They are losing about $500 million a day, and if this holds and wells are shut in, oil revenue effectively goes to zero.
Bullshit. Iranian, or any friendly-flagged tanker, can sail along the Iranian coast in territorial waters, well within the 200-mile range of Iran's missiles, drones. Once in Pakistani territorial waters, the US might want to think twice about offending their 'ally', the only remaining 'diplomatic' conduit to Iran. I'd guess Putin politely told Trump over the phone to piss-off, he's not disentangling Trumpy's diplomatic screw-up with Iran while Trump continually screws around over Ukraine.
Iran is WAY tougher than US ChickenHawks can imagine. All the top political/military leaders are ex-IRCG, fought on the front lines in the US-incited Iraq/Iran war. Iranians all have family or friends killed in that war. They know who the enemy is.
Kushner and Witkoff should have known they were sitting across from men who saw the horror of war first-hand, watched their comrades die and killed Iraqis because the US can't accept losing. The Zio-dolts are lucky the Iranians agreed to sit across the table, and not drag them over it by their collars and beat some sense into them.
Head-in-the-sand nonsense, and almost comical given how different the region looks today than on October 6, 2023: proxies degraded, economy under pressure, room to maneuver shrinking. Hugging the coast and citing missile range doesn’t move barrels at scale under sanctions and interdiction risk, and dragging Pakistan in just invites secondary sanctions, which is why those routes stay small and opaque. Invoking Vladimir Putin or romanticizing the IRGC doesn’t change what’s actually happening. If Iran could move millions of barrels freely, it would be doing it. It isn’t.
It’s pathetic that you defend a regime that slaughters its own people and has wasted its resources chasing a regional hegemony that is now blowing up in its face. Congratulations on your “victory”.
Do explain why there is zero effort by the muslim GULF states to fund + build extra oil pipelines over the last 4 decades. Say 3 -5 ?
Same with additional new rail road row.
If these existed even 5 years back, the oil volumes with 4 extra pipelines would remove the "cards" the tehran Bayt-e Rahbari islamic terrorists currently have.
Even if the 4 oil pipelines were funded + started 12 months back, the cords would be vastly different. The USMC with heavy equipment could work 'miracles'.
One pipeline is just not useful. Nor is all the extensive blather about new water canals.
Why all this focus on just one vector -VLCC - a vector with bad 'cards'!
Just more pipelines to get blown up. The problem is not that there suddenly aren't enough pipelines in the Gulf/Strait region. The problem is that the existing pipelines and/or the system feeding them keep getting blown up.
Wrong. There are suddenly a lack of oil pipelines in redundancy. Oh, darn, always a lack of oil pipelines.
The discussion is never about malfeasance. Why were the pennies not invested by GULF muslims decades back to have 4-9 oil pipelines in place + operational?
A burst oil pipeline - wow. The USA is always having burst oil pipelines. The point - why have the GULF muslims refused to fund + install these needed oil pipelines?
LOL. The pipelines are burst to small section needs to fixed and it is operational. It is blown up along with surrounding soil conditions, the pumps, the terminals and the docks. Nor is there a concern with American burst pipelines for the repair crews and equipment that they might get blown up in a double tap.
And nobody takes their few pennies (ten billion dollars worth of pennies) at a cost for each so they can build a few extra just in case they are ever needed. Even in America, it is a big deal for some customers when a pipeline bursts and is out of commission for the time it is being repaired.
What would you suggest Trump do if the PLA Navy leads a convoy of tankers from multiple Asian countries into the gulf of Oman, and demands that they be let through? If China says that they've already worked out a deal with Iran and the Gulf states, and only the US blockade was in the way, would you start a shooting war?
In Asia we are looking at massive shortages. In August we will be looking at riots in some of the most staunch US allies in the region, such as the Philippines and Indonesia. We are staring down the barrel of real famine without fertilizers and oil. You are looking at Chine becoming the primary arbiter of oil and gas into Asia, gaining massive leverage over US allies. Will you maintain the blockade if it gives China that kind of leverage? Will you sacrifice Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia just to hurt Iran?
We are also looking at the gulf states also facing the same issues of flooded oil wells and infrastructure collapse - unequally, too. Kuwait, Bahrain will be first, then the UAE, then Saudi Arabia.
Will you maintain the blockade if they threaten to crash the stock market? Will you maintain the blockade if they threaten to dump the dollar and accept Yuan or bitcoin?
This is classic Mearsheimer overreach: assume the worst chain of events, assume allies fold, and declare the U.S. has to back down.
No. The blockade stands. If China sends a PLA convoy, it owns the escalation. The response is not immediate war, but it is firm and layered: clear warnings, interdiction where necessary, aggressive sanctions on ships, insurers, and banks, and costs high enough that the convoy isn’t worth it.
The idea that Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and the Gulf states suddenly pivot to Iran and China is unrealistic. They understand the long-term risk of Chinese leverage. The answer is to redirect supply, tap strategic reserves, push Gulf producers to stabilize flows, and force a choice between the U.S.-led system and a Chinese-Iranian workaround.
Threats to dump the dollar or crash markets are pressure tactics. If that works once, it becomes the playbook. Hold the line, manage the supply shock, keep allies aligned, and maintain the pressure on the IRGC and regime until they fold.
<<<<<<The answer is to redirect supply, tap strategic reserves, push Gulf producers to stabilize flows, and force a choice between the U.S.-led system and a Chinese-Iranian workaround.<<<<<<<
America cannot redirect LNG and hydrocarbons to supply the world. They don't have either the available supply nor the facilities to export it. The Gulf can't stabilize flows whatever that means besides pretty words because their operations have been blown up, shut down with months (maybe years) long restart process or blockaded by both Iran and America. The strategic reserves around the world have been drained already, except for Russia and America. China too but only because it has massive strategic reserves in place in anticipation of just such a situation that is being imposed on the world.
Nobody is threatening to dump the dollar. China has been unwinding its dollar exposure for a decade. It has even recently slightly increased its current holding by a tiny amount but that is just some sort of technical adjustment. Everybody else is *buying* U.S. treasuries and the like. That is driving up the dollar much to the annoyance of Trump.
The supply shock isn't twenty percent of supply suddenly blocked. It is zero or close to it for America. It is one hundred percent blocked for South Korea, Taiwan, India, the Philippines etc. There is no managing a one hundred per cent blockage. Managing is another pretty word for recalibrating your economy. Choosing between production of goods or keeping your population alive. In India's case it is choosing between diesel and fertilizer for the farmers to produced and get food to their market or continue to manufacture the bulk of the global pharmaceutical supply. Just to name one example of what your term *managing* means in reality.
And there ain't nobody gonna pony up billions of dollars to reproduce the necessary components of globalization somewhere else because, if nothing else, Trump keeps saying the Iranians are going to surrender any day now and it will all be over in a couple of weeks .
Always trying to move the goalposts. Seems all the Zio-trolls got their new 'economic warfare' marching orders after a couple days off, while Trumpy sulks as his war implodes. The backhanded, damning wth faint praise remarks from King Flappy Ears add to the PR issues. 2/3s of Americans disapprove of Trump's Iran war.
China is going to send tankers to Iran, expects them to pass any US navy unimpeded, especially within 100 miles or so of the Iranian/Pakistani coasts. Particularly in Iranian territorial waters, where Iran can and will sink US ships engaged in piracy.
That said, China had planned for this, built massive crude reserves, and is now resumed shipping petroleum of various types to select neighbours. Guess those alternative routes you dismiss are adequate. The myth of strangling Iran to choke China isn't working. The EU however...
Pakistan has apparently decided to remain neutral to facilitate whatever 'negotiations' there may be. Piracy in Pakistan's waters may convince another US-ally to 'make distance', like Carney and most of the Rothschild-controlled EU seems to be doing.
Japan and South Korea have already decided to cooperate with China on key trade issues, Australia has no choice but to trade with China. Slippery slope time, slowly, then all at once.
The US$ is being dumped, smart money is heading for Singapore etc. in huge amounts. The US is buying back its own Treasury paper, but is running out of willing dupes. Even Japan is dumping US paper.
The UAE was begging for currency swaps from the US, leaving OPEC, horse-trading to help Trump lower gasoline prices and prop up the Stock Market AGAIN.
Oman is cooperating and participating with Iran on Hormuz access and toll-sharing.
If the US ESCALATES and 'interdicts' even one China-flagged ship, China will send military 'escorts' for their convoys. Reacting, not inciting.
The US/Israel started this war, so can't claim innocence. The walls are closing in...
The US, making losing look like 'winning' since Korea.
King Flappy ears really funny actually hilarious.You know Mr.Jew hater if you came to your senses we could become friends.And I always pick up the tab.You know these Royals are all Huns .Renamed The House of Windsor aka the worlds best known welfare recipients.This shmuck is harmless but you probably loved his mother she hated Jews almost as much as you
Again, you don't do your homework. Good Queen Liz disliked ZIONISTS, was professionally friendly with Jews and cooperated with non-Zionist Jewish groups. She thought creating Israel was a BAD IDEA. She was, as usual, correct. Except she accepted the Holocaust as advertised, no one is perfect.
-Relationship with British Jews: She hosted Jewish communal leaders, accepted the role of Patron of the Council of Christians and Jews, and showed particular conciliation toward Holocaust survivors, including hosting them at St. James’s Palace in 2005 and visiting the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp in 2015.
-Stance on Israel: She refused to make an official visit to Israel, a decision former Israeli President Reuven Rivlin attributed to her belief that "every one of us was either a terrorist or a son of a terrorist." During a 1984 visit to Jordan, she described Israeli presence in the West Bank as "depressing" and Israeli planes as "frightening."
-Personal and Cultural Distance: Unlike her husband Prince Philip, who had personal Jewish connections and visited Israel in 1994, the Queen had no known close Jewish friends and appeared to lack interest in Jewish culture or literature, maintaining strictly professional contacts.
-Holocaust Remembrance: She played a pivotal role in establishing Britain’s first permanent Holocaust Memorial in 2000 and served as its patron, though she faced criticism for initially omitting Jewish suffering during a 1996 state visit to Poland.
Ya, the House of Saxe Gotha was one branch of the 'German' European 'royalty'. As were the Romanovs. Flappy Ears is a complete Rothschild/WEF puppet.
If you'd just recognize your support of Israel and the Rothschilds (that is where your "Jew Hater" nonsense originates), the world would make a LOT more sense. Zionist 'settlers' and 'Israel' have NEVER been cooperative with indigenous Palestinians or neighbouring countries. Consider it was Sykes-Picot that drew the arbitrary borders to suit European politics, with no regard for the ancient cultures of the locals, which are now being contested.
You have burned any bridge which might see us as 'friends'. Plus I know this is a tactic of Hasbara. The "Israel Project's Global Language Dictionary" clearly shows Hasbara how to ingratiate themselves to people who would otherwise justifiably be horrified at Zionist actions in Palestine. Trying to 'buy' my 'friendship' by saying you "always pick up the tab" is a gross misreading of my ethics.
Nice try, but at each turn you fit the Zionist profile. Atheist or not. 90 years old or not.
Iran is a 'domino' to attempt to deprive China of the petroleum and other resources required for China to continue to build its manufacturing economy.
Iran's economy is under siege, as it has been for decades. The AIR/DECAPITATION WAR was supposed to topple the 'weakened' Islamic Republic, and has failed spectacularly. So the Blockade and Bessent's currency manipulations doing more of same will work? Land invasion?.. more like a suicide mission for literal 1,000s of US military. The Ford has turned tail and is limping away.
Clown show.
The US public is lucky China doesn't just decide the US is more trouble than it's worth. The US is something like 10% of China's total exports.
All China has to do is stop ALL shipments (and transhipments) to the US. ln a few weeks, the US public would be making Jan 6 look like the picnic it was. Empty Walmart shelves will do that. Why do you think Carney, Macron, Mertz and Starmer all went cap-in-hand to China to cut trade deals that sidestep the US?
On April 19, Carney stated: "Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become weaknesses — weaknesses that we must correct."
I don't trust Rothschild-man Carney any further than I could throw him, Trudeau and Freeland, but his handlers have got this right... the US is tanking and all its 'allies' need to away swim fast to avoid being sucked under with it.
What was it that the WEF 'you will own nothing' video said? "The US will be one power among many in the multipolar world." Keep it up, the US won't even be that.
But silly Zio-trolls don't realize the Zionist Rothschild Oligarchs they unwittingly support over Israel are NOT on the US's side. AIPAC ring a bell?
Hilarious to see how out of touch you are Richard with each post. Iran is not the enemy of the US. Israel for sure but to act like the US has any legal or moral standing in the war is laughable. Keep claiming you care about “facts” yet you can never answer simple questions about Israels atrocities, the US support for them and the fact that Israel illegally has 200+ nukes. Why the fuck so you still support Israel and the genocidal maniacs that want to help them?
James watch your language.Didn’t your Mother wash your mouth with soap when you used bad language.where did you learn that Israel has 200plus nukes and if in the affirmative kindly provide the legal authority that declares thatIsraels possession of these nukes is illegal.At the same time if itis not a burden can tou provide details about these alleged atrocities
I know the James Robert’s of the world rather well.I am not a bot.Israel defeated Hamas Jihad Hezbollah without a sweat.Iran is not the threat it was years ago. The rest is cow manure.
You are wrong. Iran has sustainable rogue trade networks. Netanyahu will be out of power soon. Trump will be impeached in 6 months. Which golem will be tasked to do shlomos bidding? Better to table this for the AI bots to complete.
You and many Leaders fail to admit the Limits of Unilateral Coercive Power.
You can be the "Most Powerful in the World" but you cannot impose your will on other large Societies. The capacity of local Polities to "Resist" occupation and coercion has increased dramatically with the invention and ubiquity of the ... AK-47 (later modernized to AKM).
The evolution of Military Technologies — both in the Offensive and Defensive Spheres — has brought our Global community to the brink of Mutual Annihilation.
You can have the "Most Powerful Army in the World" but if the tens of millions of peasants in ... say Afghanistan or Vietnam (the poorest places on Earth) don't want to see your Army ... you have a serious problem. Iran is 3x Afghanistan...
If one adds to the Defensive Power of "mass AK-47" also some other by now ubiquitous military technologies like solid propellent rockets or drones with Iridium or other GPS guidance, you are "Toast", whatever high-Tech Super Army you may have. Add to it ICBM with MIRV, it is over for any Offensive Military action.
Add to this the asymmetry in the willingness to "suffer" (to take casualties) and you have a NIGHTMARE. Some ignorant Leaders ignore the Factual catastrophes of Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria... IGNORANT!
Whoever does not recognize this, IS PLAYING WITH GIGA-FIRE and will throw good money after bad money. Bye-bye USA Prosperity!
Better keep your Super-Army at home for Really Defensive purposes.
Dangerous because Trump bosom buddy, Netanyahu, may fly to visit Don to offer the Samson option to bailout Trump in exchange for his pardon demand to President Herzog over Netanyahu corruption charges.
It's all by design as Imperial Vichy District of Columbia is occupied by foreign special interests and the United States are being eaten alive from within.
It is very difficult to make sense of the decision to go to war against Iran. Logic requires some realistic benefit that was achievable by this action. But the earlier 12 day war against Iran, should have shown that was unlikely. I cannot but think that whatever happened in Venisuela, was taken as evidence that military action could succeed, there, and that therefore this success could in some way transfer across an ocean or two. I am not confident that I know what happened in Venisuela, it is a but of a mystery to me. But I am reaching far and wide for rationality. And not finding much. It is clear that the longer the USA is at war in Iran the weaker it appears to be. This alone makes continuation illogical.
Yes, that fantastic anti-China alliance the US was trying to build in Asia must be rapturous about their economies being slammed by a war launched for absolutely no sensible reason with the one launching it showing he doesn’t give a damn about them. Strategic genius.
How is it that America is full of aging out old WHITE men; ex KKK members who are absolutely terrified of their neighbors. If our neighbors are people like us; then these old reprobates must be the VERY WORST of people; how else could their own mirror image show up so BADLY?
I guess with their Lego attacks on Trump, trying to swing the midterms, Iran is making amends for intervening in the 1980 presidential election by delaying the release of the hostages until Logan Act violator Reagan took office and illegally sold Iran missiles.
Ya, the US can't decide who its 'friends' are, will eventually backstab any ally. Except Israel. And thereby ends up with none.
The 1979 Revolution was the direct result of the 1953 CIA overthrow of the DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED Mossedegh gov't, placing the vicious Shah as dictator-for-life and setting up his SAVAK secret police thugs.
If your clapped out zionist proxy of a country had it’s ass kicked comprehensively by Iran ( a relatively minor power) , do you really think it has ANY chance against China (economically, militarily, socially etc), which seems to be your preoccupation.
If so you are dreaming. I’d take the Werner von Braun option and learn Chinese ( as per Tom Lehrer). Even then , not sure they need your rather over specialised skillset dominated by a US perspective. Happy retirement
What exactly could Trump do at this point? If he hadn't kept "communicating" (I think that's what they call it) with his fans and adversaries via his social arenas, he might have gotten away--very weak might--gotten away with blaming Hegseth and various other neo-cons, but he's been spouting nonsense which makes his sanity doubtful. He can't push this off on any other national leader, barring Bibi, which would lose some of his few remaining friends, such as they are. The GOP won't impeach him, and the Dems won't, either, since the likes of Schumer want to ride this to a midterm victory in lieu of trying to fix the problems. I know you want his focus on China, Professor, but have you considered what a mess he could make of that?
I doubt JJM 'wants' Trump to 'focus on China', he merely acknowledges that's what was in Trumpy's latest National (in)Security (lack of)Strategy report.
The Prof needs to redirect to a topic that will erupt soon. The kremlin Muscovy ethnics will deny in USA MSM their Muscovy mass atrocities + their guilt in criminological + socio-legal law.
As millions of Muscovy will flee in Yellow Bellie Panic from stolen Ukrainian land the need for reparation of all of Ukraine will be apparent to every Kremlin Muscovy regime supporter in the USA.
They will use solidarity of their ethnic genetic base as a Moral and Legal basis to justify Crimes against Humanity. The Whine of the millions of Guilty butchers will, of course, be telephoned in person to the MAGA POTUS Trump directly by Putin.
The USA MSM must be aware that any screaming from Trump that the stolen Ukrainian soil since 2014 must be donated to the Kremlin Muscovy is a Trump scam. Trump already bleats out that he can scream PEACE, PEACE being his code con word for donating stolen Ukrainian soil to the Kremlin Muscovy for a slice of trillions in USD back to the BIG GUY.
We can all be assured that scam Trump will appear frequently! The PEACE scam of his will be repeated shamelessly as a cover to his speaking about reparations to all Ukrainians.
The lack of will in Trump to Breaking the cycle of mass atrocities - Genocide of Ukrainians -by his cuddle bunny Kremlin Muscovy Putin is already too blatant in 2026! Moral turpitude might be too evident in the POTUS Cabal.
Many Leaders fail to admit the Limits of Unilateral Coercive Power.
You can be the "Most Powerful in the World" but you cannot impose your will on other large Societies. The capacity of local Polities to "Resist" occupation and coercion has increased dramatically with the invention and ubiquity of the ... AK-47 (later modernized to AKM).
The evolution of Military Technologies — both in the Offensive and Defensive Spheres — has brought our Global community to the brink of Mutual Annihilation.
You can have the "Most Powerful Army in the World" but if the tens of millions of peasants in ... say Afghanistan (the poorest place on Earth) don't want to see your Army ... you have a serious problem. Iran is 3x Afghanistan...
If one adds to the Defensive Power of "mass AK-47" also some other by now ubiquitous military technologies like solid propellent rockets or drones with Iridium or other GPS guidance, you are "Toast", whatever high-Tech Super Army you may have. Add to it ICBM with MIRV, it is over for any Offensive Military action.
Add to this the asymmetry in the willingness to "suffer" (to take casualties) and you have a NIGHTMARE.
Whoever does not recognize this, IS PLAYING WITH GIGA-FIRE and will throw good money after bad money. Bye-bye USA Prosperity!
Better keep your Super-Army at home for Really Defensive purposes.
Wow. It is if you see that the unique World War Xi is already underway. The Han Intelligence has "Jagged" periodicity in the various theatres of war.
That the 2026 MAGA POTUS Trump elite demand to avoid ownership of the 2014 POTUS Obama capitulation to Xi on February 6th 2014 does not make the Balkanization of Independent Ukraine a fantasy.
Ukraine fights + the Trump avoidance of ownership of 2014 POTUS Obama betrayal does not make his sell-out of Ukraine to Kremlin Muscovy unreal.
In fact, the more Trump demands to avoid taking ownership of this huge 2014 loss in World War Xi, the more Trump surrenders the USA to a huge second loss in the GULF to WW Xi.
Trump needs to nicely ask the French-UK-Ukraine Fleet that is ready, to save the USA in the SOH. Or, Trump can show off his inability to outthink Xi in this GULF Muslim miasma.
If Trump waits, he can surrender the USA in person when he meets his new lord + master over in China. Trump can still demand that POTUS Obama did not sell out Ukraine in 2014 as He demands that he, Trump, has the super power to steal Ukraine's Crimea + donate this Ukrainian soil to his cuddle boy, Putin + his master, Xi.
NACHO = not a chance Hormuz opens
Iran closed it only to its enemies. As for tolls Hormuz was one of the only passages in the world that wasn’t charging tolls.
US and Zion are ruled by very evil people no other way to sum it up.
I still say this is nothing but a giant grift for the US to normalize collecting tolls on ships passing through the straights. There's potential for billions to be collected.
The US won't ever see a dime of the tolls to pass Hormuz, al Mandib, or Malacca for that matter. That was another dementia-patient Trumpy hallucination.
I never said it was a good or even workable idea lol. I just know he views everything through the lens of how much cash he can grift from everything.
Agreed, now we see Trumpty with ANOTHER plan to force Iran out of Hormuz.
Stupid is as stupid does.
If I was a betting man, I’d bet on it being opened before the end of this year. Way too much pressure for this not to happen.
Where's Jack Black when we need him?
I watched the video earlier on Thursday and greatly appreciate Professor Mearsheimer's analysis of the challenging situation facing the United States and the world. These developments are truly lamentable.
One thing is for certain: don’t take strategic advice from Richard Jaffe. What a blowhard.
Once again Mearsheimer, your analysis is wrong.
Keep the blockade in place and tighten it further. Cut off the IRGC’s revenue and choke off critical imports. No oil out, no money in. Every day this continues, the regime gets weaker, its proxies get starved, and its ability to fund and sustain operations erodes. Israel has already degraded their regional network, and the U.S. has them boxed in economically and militarily. Force them to shut in their wells and absorb the mounting damage that comes with it.
Stay the course. This is sustained, compounding pressure, and it is working. Keep it on until they fold and give up their enriched uranium and ballistic missiles.
I see you issuing lots of orders. Any volunteers to try to carry them out? Since the regular US armed forces are distinctly unwilling. Mr Trump is a dead man walking, as President. He may well believe he has nothing to lose, so like some previous dictators he seems to be trying to take the world down with him.
Yes, I know that the USA is supposed by many to be a republic (it has never even tried to be a democracy). The fault lies mostly with those who have allowed Mr Trump to have his head. He should have been restrained long ago.
Yes, burn down the world economy and hope that eventually Iran will choke on the smoke.
What are you talking about? Who's unwilling to carry our orders? Pure babble! 🙄
You're a poor reader
Just about everyone.
This is false and largely fanciful. Claims that U.S. forces are unwilling to carry out orders have no basis in reality or how the chain of command actually works, and calling Donald Trump a “dead man walking” or invoking dictators is rhetoric, not analysis. The U.S. remains a constitutional republic with functioning institutions, checks, and elections.
You are still issuing orders. That suggests that you are suffering from the delusion that I work for you. (I don't).
Perhaps what I said is rhetorical. Who decided that what I write on Substack must be what you call "analysis"? By the way, how do you define "analysis"? Do you believe that analysis and rhetoric are always necessarily mutually exclusive? It looks very much as if you classify your opinions as analysis, and mine as rhetoric - for no other reason than that yours are yours, and mine are not.
I prefer facts, not bullshit. Apparently you prefer the latter.
Black is white, right is wrong. Your 'facts' are anything but, are actually 100% US MSM narrative nonsense. That $450million/day is at best an estimate pulled out of some US gov't wonk's ass. Iran is dealing outside US$ Reserve Currency System (SWIFT etc.), where the US can look and see what every other country is doing trade-wise. By definition, the 'shadow tankers' don't show in the US systems. DUH.
Milgram and Zimbardo showed how this Illegitimate Authority gaslight-gambit works.
Jaffee's problem is, as hard as he tries, he has no authority here, no clipboard, no white lab-coat to pretend he's in charge and his 'facts' are real.
Then the insults start.
You’re proving the point. You dismiss any data you don’t like as “MSM nonsense,” then replace it with assumptions and attitude. Even if some volumes move outside SWIFT or via shadow tankers, that doesn’t mean they move freely or at scale. Those channels are costly, inefficient, and constrained. That’s exactly what pressure looks like.
Dragging in Stanley Milgram and Philip Zimbardo doesn’t make your case stronger. It’s a distraction. This isn’t about lab experiments or “authority,” it’s about whether Iran can export oil normally under pressure. It can’t.
And no, this isn’t about me having “authority.” It’s about whether your claims match reality. They don’t.
Hey buddy I am glad you found a new pen pal.WowDont you watch sports walk outdoors play golf or tennis’s eat takeout food get laid?Do you think these Arabs give a hoot in hell about you.Are you a paid operater?Get a life man
Barely.
You over looked the fact that Shitrael started an unprovoked war. Why should Iran give up ANYTHING at the behest of the zionist bullies??
You’re an idiot and not worth the time.
The sort of rude response I would have excepted from you. Having read your ignorant, war mongering responses to others, I realize engaging with you further is not worth my energy or time.
Thankfully I was blessed with a moral compass.
Maybe the US forces carrying out illegal orders, need a quick look at The Nuremberg Trials and their outcomes … ‘doing what I was told’ doesn’t cut it.
The gallows await ….
Getting personal is when you know twits have lost the argument. Good on you Susie.
Funny you should say that...
Richard Jaffee
<<<<< No oil out, no money in. <<<<<<<
Unfortunately for the point you are making Iran, is getting oil out. Not as much as they would like of course but still millions of barrels which is enough to sustain them.
When Iran kicked the Shah out and nationalized the oil industry, the Western operators shut it down. Rather than ask the big multi-nationals to stay and reopen the fields, instead the Iranians bit the bullet and let the fields collapse. It took them twenty years to restore production while they steadfastly refused to let the majors come in and help them.
In the Iraq/Iran war, Iran suffered from three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand fatalities Plus tens of thousands of civilians killed or injured in chemical attacks on Iranian. The precursors for the chemical agents were supplied to Saddam by America to help him fight the war. The war ended in a stalemate where American backed Saddam ended with nothing gained after having started the war. To put in perspective, it would be like America getting a million plus military/civilian casualties in a conflict.
Iran/Persia has been around for three thousand years. A lot of entities have tried to dominate their country in that period and they all failed. For the Iranians when a new conflict is forced on them its.....been there, done that, here we go again. ...... The Iranians are secure in the knowledge that while many have tried, Iran/Persia is still here and they are not.
Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports.
The oil I was referring to that is getting out is by ship through the strait. Millions of barrels in fact.
According to Kpler, there has been no confirmed Iranian tanker making it through the U.S. blockade zone. Iran-linked ships may cross the Strait of Hormuz, but they are not getting past the line from the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Sea. Storage is the choke point. Iran has roughly three weeks before it runs out of room, and Kharg Island, where most exports are staged, is close to capacity. They are losing about $500 million a day, and if this holds and wells are shut in, oil revenue effectively goes to zero.
Bullshit. Iranian, or any friendly-flagged tanker, can sail along the Iranian coast in territorial waters, well within the 200-mile range of Iran's missiles, drones. Once in Pakistani territorial waters, the US might want to think twice about offending their 'ally', the only remaining 'diplomatic' conduit to Iran. I'd guess Putin politely told Trump over the phone to piss-off, he's not disentangling Trumpy's diplomatic screw-up with Iran while Trump continually screws around over Ukraine.
Iran is WAY tougher than US ChickenHawks can imagine. All the top political/military leaders are ex-IRCG, fought on the front lines in the US-incited Iraq/Iran war. Iranians all have family or friends killed in that war. They know who the enemy is.
Kushner and Witkoff should have known they were sitting across from men who saw the horror of war first-hand, watched their comrades die and killed Iraqis because the US can't accept losing. The Zio-dolts are lucky the Iranians agreed to sit across the table, and not drag them over it by their collars and beat some sense into them.
Head-in-the-sand nonsense, and almost comical given how different the region looks today than on October 6, 2023: proxies degraded, economy under pressure, room to maneuver shrinking. Hugging the coast and citing missile range doesn’t move barrels at scale under sanctions and interdiction risk, and dragging Pakistan in just invites secondary sanctions, which is why those routes stay small and opaque. Invoking Vladimir Putin or romanticizing the IRGC doesn’t change what’s actually happening. If Iran could move millions of barrels freely, it would be doing it. It isn’t.
It’s pathetic that you defend a regime that slaughters its own people and has wasted its resources chasing a regional hegemony that is now blowing up in its face. Congratulations on your “victory”.
Do explain why there is zero effort by the muslim GULF states to fund + build extra oil pipelines over the last 4 decades. Say 3 -5 ?
Same with additional new rail road row.
If these existed even 5 years back, the oil volumes with 4 extra pipelines would remove the "cards" the tehran Bayt-e Rahbari islamic terrorists currently have.
Even if the 4 oil pipelines were funded + started 12 months back, the cords would be vastly different. The USMC with heavy equipment could work 'miracles'.
One pipeline is just not useful. Nor is all the extensive blather about new water canals.
Why all this focus on just one vector -VLCC - a vector with bad 'cards'!
Just more pipelines to get blown up. The problem is not that there suddenly aren't enough pipelines in the Gulf/Strait region. The problem is that the existing pipelines and/or the system feeding them keep getting blown up.
Wrong. There are suddenly a lack of oil pipelines in redundancy. Oh, darn, always a lack of oil pipelines.
The discussion is never about malfeasance. Why were the pennies not invested by GULF muslims decades back to have 4-9 oil pipelines in place + operational?
A burst oil pipeline - wow. The USA is always having burst oil pipelines. The point - why have the GULF muslims refused to fund + install these needed oil pipelines?
LOL. The pipelines are burst to small section needs to fixed and it is operational. It is blown up along with surrounding soil conditions, the pumps, the terminals and the docks. Nor is there a concern with American burst pipelines for the repair crews and equipment that they might get blown up in a double tap.
And nobody takes their few pennies (ten billion dollars worth of pennies) at a cost for each so they can build a few extra just in case they are ever needed. Even in America, it is a big deal for some customers when a pipeline bursts and is out of commission for the time it is being repaired.
I'm asking this as a serious, genuine question :
What would you suggest Trump do if the PLA Navy leads a convoy of tankers from multiple Asian countries into the gulf of Oman, and demands that they be let through? If China says that they've already worked out a deal with Iran and the Gulf states, and only the US blockade was in the way, would you start a shooting war?
In Asia we are looking at massive shortages. In August we will be looking at riots in some of the most staunch US allies in the region, such as the Philippines and Indonesia. We are staring down the barrel of real famine without fertilizers and oil. You are looking at Chine becoming the primary arbiter of oil and gas into Asia, gaining massive leverage over US allies. Will you maintain the blockade if it gives China that kind of leverage? Will you sacrifice Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia just to hurt Iran?
We are also looking at the gulf states also facing the same issues of flooded oil wells and infrastructure collapse - unequally, too. Kuwait, Bahrain will be first, then the UAE, then Saudi Arabia.
Will you maintain the blockade if they threaten to crash the stock market? Will you maintain the blockade if they threaten to dump the dollar and accept Yuan or bitcoin?
For Israel and their sacred dna, we will bleed the world dry. We have waited 2000 years to exact justice and we will win.
This is classic Mearsheimer overreach: assume the worst chain of events, assume allies fold, and declare the U.S. has to back down.
No. The blockade stands. If China sends a PLA convoy, it owns the escalation. The response is not immediate war, but it is firm and layered: clear warnings, interdiction where necessary, aggressive sanctions on ships, insurers, and banks, and costs high enough that the convoy isn’t worth it.
The idea that Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and the Gulf states suddenly pivot to Iran and China is unrealistic. They understand the long-term risk of Chinese leverage. The answer is to redirect supply, tap strategic reserves, push Gulf producers to stabilize flows, and force a choice between the U.S.-led system and a Chinese-Iranian workaround.
Threats to dump the dollar or crash markets are pressure tactics. If that works once, it becomes the playbook. Hold the line, manage the supply shock, keep allies aligned, and maintain the pressure on the IRGC and regime until they fold.
Richard Jaffee
<<<<<<The answer is to redirect supply, tap strategic reserves, push Gulf producers to stabilize flows, and force a choice between the U.S.-led system and a Chinese-Iranian workaround.<<<<<<<
America cannot redirect LNG and hydrocarbons to supply the world. They don't have either the available supply nor the facilities to export it. The Gulf can't stabilize flows whatever that means besides pretty words because their operations have been blown up, shut down with months (maybe years) long restart process or blockaded by both Iran and America. The strategic reserves around the world have been drained already, except for Russia and America. China too but only because it has massive strategic reserves in place in anticipation of just such a situation that is being imposed on the world.
Nobody is threatening to dump the dollar. China has been unwinding its dollar exposure for a decade. It has even recently slightly increased its current holding by a tiny amount but that is just some sort of technical adjustment. Everybody else is *buying* U.S. treasuries and the like. That is driving up the dollar much to the annoyance of Trump.
The supply shock isn't twenty percent of supply suddenly blocked. It is zero or close to it for America. It is one hundred percent blocked for South Korea, Taiwan, India, the Philippines etc. There is no managing a one hundred per cent blockage. Managing is another pretty word for recalibrating your economy. Choosing between production of goods or keeping your population alive. In India's case it is choosing between diesel and fertilizer for the farmers to produced and get food to their market or continue to manufacture the bulk of the global pharmaceutical supply. Just to name one example of what your term *managing* means in reality.
And there ain't nobody gonna pony up billions of dollars to reproduce the necessary components of globalization somewhere else because, if nothing else, Trump keeps saying the Iranians are going to surrender any day now and it will all be over in a couple of weeks .
Always trying to move the goalposts. Seems all the Zio-trolls got their new 'economic warfare' marching orders after a couple days off, while Trumpy sulks as his war implodes. The backhanded, damning wth faint praise remarks from King Flappy Ears add to the PR issues. 2/3s of Americans disapprove of Trump's Iran war.
China is going to send tankers to Iran, expects them to pass any US navy unimpeded, especially within 100 miles or so of the Iranian/Pakistani coasts. Particularly in Iranian territorial waters, where Iran can and will sink US ships engaged in piracy.
That said, China had planned for this, built massive crude reserves, and is now resumed shipping petroleum of various types to select neighbours. Guess those alternative routes you dismiss are adequate. The myth of strangling Iran to choke China isn't working. The EU however...
Pakistan has apparently decided to remain neutral to facilitate whatever 'negotiations' there may be. Piracy in Pakistan's waters may convince another US-ally to 'make distance', like Carney and most of the Rothschild-controlled EU seems to be doing.
Japan and South Korea have already decided to cooperate with China on key trade issues, Australia has no choice but to trade with China. Slippery slope time, slowly, then all at once.
The US$ is being dumped, smart money is heading for Singapore etc. in huge amounts. The US is buying back its own Treasury paper, but is running out of willing dupes. Even Japan is dumping US paper.
The UAE was begging for currency swaps from the US, leaving OPEC, horse-trading to help Trump lower gasoline prices and prop up the Stock Market AGAIN.
Oman is cooperating and participating with Iran on Hormuz access and toll-sharing.
If the US ESCALATES and 'interdicts' even one China-flagged ship, China will send military 'escorts' for their convoys. Reacting, not inciting.
The US/Israel started this war, so can't claim innocence. The walls are closing in...
The US, making losing look like 'winning' since Korea.
King Flappy ears really funny actually hilarious.You know Mr.Jew hater if you came to your senses we could become friends.And I always pick up the tab.You know these Royals are all Huns .Renamed The House of Windsor aka the worlds best known welfare recipients.This shmuck is harmless but you probably loved his mother she hated Jews almost as much as you
Again, you don't do your homework. Good Queen Liz disliked ZIONISTS, was professionally friendly with Jews and cooperated with non-Zionist Jewish groups. She thought creating Israel was a BAD IDEA. She was, as usual, correct. Except she accepted the Holocaust as advertised, no one is perfect.
-Relationship with British Jews: She hosted Jewish communal leaders, accepted the role of Patron of the Council of Christians and Jews, and showed particular conciliation toward Holocaust survivors, including hosting them at St. James’s Palace in 2005 and visiting the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp in 2015.
-Stance on Israel: She refused to make an official visit to Israel, a decision former Israeli President Reuven Rivlin attributed to her belief that "every one of us was either a terrorist or a son of a terrorist." During a 1984 visit to Jordan, she described Israeli presence in the West Bank as "depressing" and Israeli planes as "frightening."
-Personal and Cultural Distance: Unlike her husband Prince Philip, who had personal Jewish connections and visited Israel in 1994, the Queen had no known close Jewish friends and appeared to lack interest in Jewish culture or literature, maintaining strictly professional contacts.
-Holocaust Remembrance: She played a pivotal role in establishing Britain’s first permanent Holocaust Memorial in 2000 and served as its patron, though she faced criticism for initially omitting Jewish suffering during a 1996 state visit to Poland.
Ya, the House of Saxe Gotha was one branch of the 'German' European 'royalty'. As were the Romanovs. Flappy Ears is a complete Rothschild/WEF puppet.
If you'd just recognize your support of Israel and the Rothschilds (that is where your "Jew Hater" nonsense originates), the world would make a LOT more sense. Zionist 'settlers' and 'Israel' have NEVER been cooperative with indigenous Palestinians or neighbouring countries. Consider it was Sykes-Picot that drew the arbitrary borders to suit European politics, with no regard for the ancient cultures of the locals, which are now being contested.
You have burned any bridge which might see us as 'friends'. Plus I know this is a tactic of Hasbara. The "Israel Project's Global Language Dictionary" clearly shows Hasbara how to ingratiate themselves to people who would otherwise justifiably be horrified at Zionist actions in Palestine. Trying to 'buy' my 'friendship' by saying you "always pick up the tab" is a gross misreading of my ethics.
Nice try, but at each turn you fit the Zionist profile. Atheist or not. 90 years old or not.
The blockade is on Iran, not China. It is Iran’s finances that are collapsing.
Deliberately obtuse...
Iran is a 'domino' to attempt to deprive China of the petroleum and other resources required for China to continue to build its manufacturing economy.
Iran's economy is under siege, as it has been for decades. The AIR/DECAPITATION WAR was supposed to topple the 'weakened' Islamic Republic, and has failed spectacularly. So the Blockade and Bessent's currency manipulations doing more of same will work? Land invasion?.. more like a suicide mission for literal 1,000s of US military. The Ford has turned tail and is limping away.
Clown show.
The US public is lucky China doesn't just decide the US is more trouble than it's worth. The US is something like 10% of China's total exports.
All China has to do is stop ALL shipments (and transhipments) to the US. ln a few weeks, the US public would be making Jan 6 look like the picnic it was. Empty Walmart shelves will do that. Why do you think Carney, Macron, Mertz and Starmer all went cap-in-hand to China to cut trade deals that sidestep the US?
On April 19, Carney stated: "Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become weaknesses — weaknesses that we must correct."
I don't trust Rothschild-man Carney any further than I could throw him, Trudeau and Freeland, but his handlers have got this right... the US is tanking and all its 'allies' need to away swim fast to avoid being sucked under with it.
What was it that the WEF 'you will own nothing' video said? "The US will be one power among many in the multipolar world." Keep it up, the US won't even be that.
But silly Zio-trolls don't realize the Zionist Rothschild Oligarchs they unwittingly support over Israel are NOT on the US's side. AIPAC ring a bell?
After all your ranting posts, but still nothing of substance.
Hilarious to see how out of touch you are Richard with each post. Iran is not the enemy of the US. Israel for sure but to act like the US has any legal or moral standing in the war is laughable. Keep claiming you care about “facts” yet you can never answer simple questions about Israels atrocities, the US support for them and the fact that Israel illegally has 200+ nukes. Why the fuck so you still support Israel and the genocidal maniacs that want to help them?
James watch your language.Didn’t your Mother wash your mouth with soap when you used bad language.where did you learn that Israel has 200plus nukes and if in the affirmative kindly provide the legal authority that declares thatIsraels possession of these nukes is illegal.At the same time if itis not a burden can tou provide details about these alleged atrocities
Fuck you Jacob! How about you learn history and use the ol Google machine to educate yourself about Israels nuclear capabilities.
James How about you learn history is the whole story.I do not debate with illiterate people
I don't "debate" zionist shills who aren't based in reality. You're likely just a bot so no need to waste any time on you.
I know the James Robert’s of the world rather well.I am not a bot.Israel defeated Hamas Jihad Hezbollah without a sweat.Iran is not the threat it was years ago. The rest is cow manure.
Still playing the "Israel has no nuke" game? What a joke.
Mr.Know it all When did Israel threaten any country.If my memory doesn’t fail me Iran did many times.
You are wrong. Iran has sustainable rogue trade networks. Netanyahu will be out of power soon. Trump will be impeached in 6 months. Which golem will be tasked to do shlomos bidding? Better to table this for the AI bots to complete.
You and many Leaders fail to admit the Limits of Unilateral Coercive Power.
You can be the "Most Powerful in the World" but you cannot impose your will on other large Societies. The capacity of local Polities to "Resist" occupation and coercion has increased dramatically with the invention and ubiquity of the ... AK-47 (later modernized to AKM).
The evolution of Military Technologies — both in the Offensive and Defensive Spheres — has brought our Global community to the brink of Mutual Annihilation.
You can have the "Most Powerful Army in the World" but if the tens of millions of peasants in ... say Afghanistan or Vietnam (the poorest places on Earth) don't want to see your Army ... you have a serious problem. Iran is 3x Afghanistan...
If one adds to the Defensive Power of "mass AK-47" also some other by now ubiquitous military technologies like solid propellent rockets or drones with Iridium or other GPS guidance, you are "Toast", whatever high-Tech Super Army you may have. Add to it ICBM with MIRV, it is over for any Offensive Military action.
Add to this the asymmetry in the willingness to "suffer" (to take casualties) and you have a NIGHTMARE. Some ignorant Leaders ignore the Factual catastrophes of Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria... IGNORANT!
Whoever does not recognize this, IS PLAYING WITH GIGA-FIRE and will throw good money after bad money. Bye-bye USA Prosperity!
Better keep your Super-Army at home for Really Defensive purposes.
Dangerous because Trump bosom buddy, Netanyahu, may fly to visit Don to offer the Samson option to bailout Trump in exchange for his pardon demand to President Herzog over Netanyahu corruption charges.
It's all by design as Imperial Vichy District of Columbia is occupied by foreign special interests and the United States are being eaten alive from within.
It is very difficult to make sense of the decision to go to war against Iran. Logic requires some realistic benefit that was achievable by this action. But the earlier 12 day war against Iran, should have shown that was unlikely. I cannot but think that whatever happened in Venisuela, was taken as evidence that military action could succeed, there, and that therefore this success could in some way transfer across an ocean or two. I am not confident that I know what happened in Venisuela, it is a but of a mystery to me. But I am reaching far and wide for rationality. And not finding much. It is clear that the longer the USA is at war in Iran the weaker it appears to be. This alone makes continuation illogical.
Yes, that fantastic anti-China alliance the US was trying to build in Asia must be rapturous about their economies being slammed by a war launched for absolutely no sensible reason with the one launching it showing he doesn’t give a damn about them. Strategic genius.
How is it that America is full of aging out old WHITE men; ex KKK members who are absolutely terrified of their neighbors. If our neighbors are people like us; then these old reprobates must be the VERY WORST of people; how else could their own mirror image show up so BADLY?
I guess with their Lego attacks on Trump, trying to swing the midterms, Iran is making amends for intervening in the 1980 presidential election by delaying the release of the hostages until Logan Act violator Reagan took office and illegally sold Iran missiles.
Ya, the US can't decide who its 'friends' are, will eventually backstab any ally. Except Israel. And thereby ends up with none.
The 1979 Revolution was the direct result of the 1953 CIA overthrow of the DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED Mossedegh gov't, placing the vicious Shah as dictator-for-life and setting up his SAVAK secret police thugs.
The u s of a's trajectory adheres strictly to its culture's militarism, which ruinously isolates it, as it must.
If your clapped out zionist proxy of a country had it’s ass kicked comprehensively by Iran ( a relatively minor power) , do you really think it has ANY chance against China (economically, militarily, socially etc), which seems to be your preoccupation.
If so you are dreaming. I’d take the Werner von Braun option and learn Chinese ( as per Tom Lehrer). Even then , not sure they need your rather over specialised skillset dominated by a US perspective. Happy retirement
President Donald:"It is amazing how effective the blockade is"
German foreign minister: "We believe the American president was referring to the Iranian blockade of Hormuz"
What exactly could Trump do at this point? If he hadn't kept "communicating" (I think that's what they call it) with his fans and adversaries via his social arenas, he might have gotten away--very weak might--gotten away with blaming Hegseth and various other neo-cons, but he's been spouting nonsense which makes his sanity doubtful. He can't push this off on any other national leader, barring Bibi, which would lose some of his few remaining friends, such as they are. The GOP won't impeach him, and the Dems won't, either, since the likes of Schumer want to ride this to a midterm victory in lieu of trying to fix the problems. I know you want his focus on China, Professor, but have you considered what a mess he could make of that?
I doubt JJM 'wants' Trump to 'focus on China', he merely acknowledges that's what was in Trumpy's latest National (in)Security (lack of)Strategy report.
The Prof needs to redirect to a topic that will erupt soon. The kremlin Muscovy ethnics will deny in USA MSM their Muscovy mass atrocities + their guilt in criminological + socio-legal law.
As millions of Muscovy will flee in Yellow Bellie Panic from stolen Ukrainian land the need for reparation of all of Ukraine will be apparent to every Kremlin Muscovy regime supporter in the USA.
They will use solidarity of their ethnic genetic base as a Moral and Legal basis to justify Crimes against Humanity. The Whine of the millions of Guilty butchers will, of course, be telephoned in person to the MAGA POTUS Trump directly by Putin.
The USA MSM must be aware that any screaming from Trump that the stolen Ukrainian soil since 2014 must be donated to the Kremlin Muscovy is a Trump scam. Trump already bleats out that he can scream PEACE, PEACE being his code con word for donating stolen Ukrainian soil to the Kremlin Muscovy for a slice of trillions in USD back to the BIG GUY.
We can all be assured that scam Trump will appear frequently! The PEACE scam of his will be repeated shamelessly as a cover to his speaking about reparations to all Ukrainians.
The lack of will in Trump to Breaking the cycle of mass atrocities - Genocide of Ukrainians -by his cuddle bunny Kremlin Muscovy Putin is already too blatant in 2026! Moral turpitude might be too evident in the POTUS Cabal.
Many Leaders fail to admit the Limits of Unilateral Coercive Power.
You can be the "Most Powerful in the World" but you cannot impose your will on other large Societies. The capacity of local Polities to "Resist" occupation and coercion has increased dramatically with the invention and ubiquity of the ... AK-47 (later modernized to AKM).
The evolution of Military Technologies — both in the Offensive and Defensive Spheres — has brought our Global community to the brink of Mutual Annihilation.
You can have the "Most Powerful Army in the World" but if the tens of millions of peasants in ... say Afghanistan (the poorest place on Earth) don't want to see your Army ... you have a serious problem. Iran is 3x Afghanistan...
If one adds to the Defensive Power of "mass AK-47" also some other by now ubiquitous military technologies like solid propellent rockets or drones with Iridium or other GPS guidance, you are "Toast", whatever high-Tech Super Army you may have. Add to it ICBM with MIRV, it is over for any Offensive Military action.
Add to this the asymmetry in the willingness to "suffer" (to take casualties) and you have a NIGHTMARE.
Whoever does not recognize this, IS PLAYING WITH GIGA-FIRE and will throw good money after bad money. Bye-bye USA Prosperity!
Better keep your Super-Army at home for Really Defensive purposes.
Wow. It is if you see that the unique World War Xi is already underway. The Han Intelligence has "Jagged" periodicity in the various theatres of war.
That the 2026 MAGA POTUS Trump elite demand to avoid ownership of the 2014 POTUS Obama capitulation to Xi on February 6th 2014 does not make the Balkanization of Independent Ukraine a fantasy.
Ukraine fights + the Trump avoidance of ownership of 2014 POTUS Obama betrayal does not make his sell-out of Ukraine to Kremlin Muscovy unreal.
In fact, the more Trump demands to avoid taking ownership of this huge 2014 loss in World War Xi, the more Trump surrenders the USA to a huge second loss in the GULF to WW Xi.
Trump needs to nicely ask the French-UK-Ukraine Fleet that is ready, to save the USA in the SOH. Or, Trump can show off his inability to outthink Xi in this GULF Muslim miasma.
If Trump waits, he can surrender the USA in person when he meets his new lord + master over in China. Trump can still demand that POTUS Obama did not sell out Ukraine in 2014 as He demands that he, Trump, has the super power to steal Ukraine's Crimea + donate this Ukrainian soil to his cuddle boy, Putin + his master, Xi.
My TACO Tuesday cartoon here: https://substack.com/@nemopix/note/c-251393038