Talking about US Strategy on The Duran
On 31 January 2024, I had a lengthy discussion on The Duran with Glenn Diesen and Alexander Mercouris. We mainly discussed the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, paying special attention to US policy regarding these two conflicts.
Wars of this sort where territory & people are annexed, normally does not end in an 'Ugly Victory' UNLESS a mass guerrilla network spawns partisans & saboteurs across the defeated & annexed segments of the nation. However, it is unlikely that once the Americans go 'belly up' with the looming implosion of the Petrodollar... that Ukraine would organically spawn such movements.
More likely scenario: it will go the way of Chechnya, post the Second Russo-Chechen War, & large parts of the former Ukrainian nation will be incorporated with little friction into the New Russia.
I watched it and it was excellent.
One point I’d like to make: you say that Russia will achieve an “ugly victory” because the U.S. will continue to be aggressive towards Russia in other spheres including leftover Ukraine.
Assuming Russia’s posture of indivisible security and its strategic interests remain the same, what do you think might deter the U.S. or induce a change in its intentions?
I only see a significant reduction in capabilities - economic, financial, and military. This can be achieved with a clear and significant military defeat, in addition to continued and accelerating dedollarization and a growth in parallel non USD based financial systems.
Basically intentions will follow a drop in capability and not out of rational thought.
Do you see any other realistic way? (I hope you do)