On 31 August 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking about Iran and Ukraine. I made the case that despite all the hype in the West about how well Ukraine is doing in its war with Russia, the fact is that the Russians are winning the war and there is nothing Ukraine can do to reverse the tide.
On Iran, the Judge pressed me to explain what is going on with Scott Bessent’s strategy to isolate Iran by forcing countries around the world to cut off all economic intercourse with Tehran. D-Day, the Treasury Secretary told us last week, is imminent, and any country that continues trading with and investing in Iran is going to pay a huge economic price. Of course, there is hardly any chance this strategy will work, and unsurprisingly Bessent has not told us when D-Day is coming. In the meantime, he has targeted one Egyptian bank that operates in Abu Dhabi. He doesn’t appear to be packing much of a punch.
At the same time, President Trump has just restarted the tit-for-tat air campaign that he abandoned at the end of July, because it was not working. In fact, we were recently told that using military force against Iran was no longer necessary because the US blockade of the Strait coupled with the Bessent strategy would give us huge coercive leverage over Iran. We had found the formula for success.
But it appears that there has been a change in Trump’s thinking. Might it be because he and his advisors understand that the Bessent strategy will not work?
Why should a tit-for-tat strategy work now when it failed in July?
'Why should a tit-for-tat strategy work now when it failed in July?'
Because Trump is desperate to get the hell out of Iran, and desperate people do desperate things. The problem is that Trump can't get out unless he looks like or can claim that he has won. But he can't win - the Iranians hold the strategic advantage. Therefore, he is stuck with no way out.
If only we had listened to John…