On 29 January 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about the ongoing peace negotiations over Ukraine, which I believe are nothing more than Kabuki theater.
I take exception to your characterization of the negotiations as Kabuki theater. Kabuki is at least sometimes entertaining. I haven’t thought they would matter since BoJo the clown got to Kiev. Keep up the good work John.
Bravo, Iran. American standing w Iran. The last middle eastern country unwilling to bend to the will of the US/Israel warmongering terrorist Imperial Colonialist regime. Nor to allow their stealing of Iran's oil and other resources, claiming them for their own while subjugating their people to their every whim for the rest of their lives.
Newsflash: Netanyahu doesn't care how many people are killed: The more, the merrier. He is still laughing all the way to the bank at how stupid the American people are!
The (U.S./Iran) constraint geometry suggests that an unstable Iran, full conflict, or massive retaliation are all undesirable due to their extreme costs. This logically sets the ceiling for the US response at a symbolic level. However, when you factor in Iran’s current internal stressors and the unpredictability of US actions over the past year, even a low-probability threat becomes a high-stakes risk for Tehran. This means Iran will likely be much more flexible toward a negotiated extraction than they otherwise would be, simply because they can't afford to miscalculate the US response."
Iran says the only way to end future wars is to fight an all out war to the end, if attacked, no mercy, no pause like last time. Tel Aviv and the Israeli Dimona nuclear plant reportedly started with 300 pounds of our stolen uranium are history.
When Satanyahoo finally emerges from his bunker, the joos themselves will summarily hang him and his war mongering henchmen that have caused the last 6 wars for their own imperial ambitions with our money and lives. Those few left will flee to Argentina, their original 1st choice for a home, claiming they lived there before the ice age.
The arrogant, stupid lying Trump will have our entire navy destroyed by over 1000 mac 12 missiles that cannot be intercepted. 6k people on an aircraft carrier: history. It will also be a fitting end to the guy who promised us no more wars, lasting world peace, and promptly continued funding the useless Ukrainian suicide war, attempted to assassinate Putin with 91 drones traced to our chip factory by one that didn't explode and delivered back personally to us, the President that is still funding the Palestinian genocide and has installed himself as Chairman of the Gaza Peace (genocide) Board, and his son in law in charge of a multibillion dollar future built on top of that cemetery.
He has kidnapped and imprisoned a foreign leader, claims he is now their acting president and deposited their stolen oil funds in a foreign bank account over which he has sole control.
Now he is blockading Cuba to starve the poor people for regime change.
What do Iran, Venezuela and Cuba all have in common? They support the prisoned, invaded, genocided, starving, indigenous people of Palestine...but I digress.
Trump should be in an insane asylum or jail in Nuremberg. Period! Nobody voted for this carnage. Bottom line: If you stand with Trump, you kneel to Satanyahoo. Go to hell!
If we had time, which I doubt we do, we could wait for the u s of a to self-terminate, as it's doing, in as ugly a way as possible, just like the zionist entity is.
"I don’t debate identity politics. I follow Constraint Geometry Axiom 12: Prediction Requires Board Mapping, Not Intent Analysis.
Intent is volatile and subjective. So my focus is strictly on mapping the geometric constraints of the board—debt loops, internal stressors, and structural limits—I limit my focus to identifying high-probability outcomes."
Trump will never do all others believe him to be. Niall Ferguson is right that US will and have already in Cold War 2.0 with China but not necessarily with Russia if the stupid European politicians lessen their paranoid and its Russophobia .
The Cold War 1.0 was premised on the Bretton Woods US$ Reserve Currency system existing in its current form in perpetuity. The US Federal Reserve model imposed on the world. That premise was rendered moot when China opened its SWIFT-replacement CIPS to 124 countries in Nov/25. Russia's SPFS also erodes the SWIFT/US$ Reserve Currency system.
The US Treasury used to take a fee every time a currency exchange in/out of the US$ took place. Like the proposed Tobin Tax, a small percentage over so many transactions translates to 'free' $billions.
Soon the US won't be able to perform the currency jiggery-pokery that was used to tank the Iranian rial as prelude to the 'protests' and subsequent planned military attack. The prime example is when the US played the same game against Japan to incite Pearl Harbour. Iran's leadership knows history and is flush with the primary resource the US embargoed Japan from getting... OIL. The standard US/Rothschild playbook is failing, and any efforts by the Rothschilds and their ilk to quietly, gradually exit the failing US$ system to the emergent China/BRICS+ system are being disrupted by Trumpy's egotistical bull-in-a-china-shop adventures. Ya think Rothschild-men Carney, Macron and Starmer suddenly changed their CHINA BAD spots and just meandered over to visit Xi on a whim? Divide and conquer.
Cold War 2.0 suits the Rothschild Class to a 'T', they will then try to incrementally subvert China and Russia's efforts by insinuating themselves back into control of the BRICS+ Central Banks. I think Putin and Xi and other BRICS leaders know better than to let THAT camel get it's nose in the BRICS tent.
This is a pan generational fight for all the world-domination marbles. The Rothschilds have been at this since the 1700's, so they won't be giving up anytime soon.
IMO, Iran has done little to warrant US consideration as a strategic threat. The US bellicosity on this front is 98%-driven by the Israeli interests which control much of US foreign policy. Iran would logically pursue a military strategy that blocks the Strait of Hormuz, and includes so many missiles and drones that Israel turns into the same wasteland that Gaza and the West Bank have become.
A quiet redefinition of sovereignty: The African Union claims continental sovereignty, asserting security primacy despite no UNSC seat or stalled reforms. What happens when legitimacy breaks? Follow for more insights!
Hasn’t the US, for all intents and purposes, already left NATO..? My bet is that were Russia to attack an EU NATO country, the Trump admin would reneg on article 5. Perhaps Putin is not willing to make that bet… YET… if only because his resources are stretched thin due to Ukraine.
“Why do we forget? More precisely: why do societies that have been warned — repeatedly, powerfully, unforgettably — about the realities of war continue to embrace militarism, support aggressive leaders, and turn away from the testimony of those who have witnessed and perpetrated its horrors?”
read the podcast episode transcript conversation between you and Danny (of yesterday Thursday I believe) and I always learn a little bit more from those interactions. So I appreciate you being a realist as you say. It brings the issues back to earth. 🙏
I take exception to your characterization of the negotiations as Kabuki theater. Kabuki is at least sometimes entertaining. I haven’t thought they would matter since BoJo the clown got to Kiev. Keep up the good work John.
Frankly I hope Iran gives us what we deserve.
Bravo, Iran. American standing w Iran. The last middle eastern country unwilling to bend to the will of the US/Israel warmongering terrorist Imperial Colonialist regime. Nor to allow their stealing of Iran's oil and other resources, claiming them for their own while subjugating their people to their every whim for the rest of their lives.
Go there, please
what a dumb response.
Haha...
Newsflash: Netanyahu doesn't care how many people are killed: The more, the merrier. He is still laughing all the way to the bank at how stupid the American people are!
Thank you for your voice on this matter Mr. Mearsheimer!
Insightful, as always. Thanks, Professor Mearsheimer.
Thank you for posting this, Professor Mearsheimer.
"Great analysis. Constraint geometry- Axiom 2: Constraint Precedes Choice.
The (U.S./Iran) constraint geometry suggests that an unstable Iran, full conflict, or massive retaliation are all undesirable due to their extreme costs. This logically sets the ceiling for the US response at a symbolic level. However, when you factor in Iran’s current internal stressors and the unpredictability of US actions over the past year, even a low-probability threat becomes a high-stakes risk for Tehran. This means Iran will likely be much more flexible toward a negotiated extraction than they otherwise would be, simply because they can't afford to miscalculate the US response."
Iran says the only way to end future wars is to fight an all out war to the end, if attacked, no mercy, no pause like last time. Tel Aviv and the Israeli Dimona nuclear plant reportedly started with 300 pounds of our stolen uranium are history.
When Satanyahoo finally emerges from his bunker, the joos themselves will summarily hang him and his war mongering henchmen that have caused the last 6 wars for their own imperial ambitions with our money and lives. Those few left will flee to Argentina, their original 1st choice for a home, claiming they lived there before the ice age.
The arrogant, stupid lying Trump will have our entire navy destroyed by over 1000 mac 12 missiles that cannot be intercepted. 6k people on an aircraft carrier: history. It will also be a fitting end to the guy who promised us no more wars, lasting world peace, and promptly continued funding the useless Ukrainian suicide war, attempted to assassinate Putin with 91 drones traced to our chip factory by one that didn't explode and delivered back personally to us, the President that is still funding the Palestinian genocide and has installed himself as Chairman of the Gaza Peace (genocide) Board, and his son in law in charge of a multibillion dollar future built on top of that cemetery.
He has kidnapped and imprisoned a foreign leader, claims he is now their acting president and deposited their stolen oil funds in a foreign bank account over which he has sole control.
Now he is blockading Cuba to starve the poor people for regime change.
What do Iran, Venezuela and Cuba all have in common? They support the prisoned, invaded, genocided, starving, indigenous people of Palestine...but I digress.
Trump should be in an insane asylum or jail in Nuremberg. Period! Nobody voted for this carnage. Bottom line: If you stand with Trump, you kneel to Satanyahoo. Go to hell!
Cogent. Thanks, Alan.
If we had time, which I doubt we do, we could wait for the u s of a to self-terminate, as it's doing, in as ugly a way as possible, just like the zionist entity is.
The respective death throes are taking too long.
"I don’t debate identity politics. I follow Constraint Geometry Axiom 12: Prediction Requires Board Mapping, Not Intent Analysis.
Intent is volatile and subjective. So my focus is strictly on mapping the geometric constraints of the board—debt loops, internal stressors, and structural limits—I limit my focus to identifying high-probability outcomes."
Trump will never do all others believe him to be. Niall Ferguson is right that US will and have already in Cold War 2.0 with China but not necessarily with Russia if the stupid European politicians lessen their paranoid and its Russophobia .
The Cold War 1.0 was premised on the Bretton Woods US$ Reserve Currency system existing in its current form in perpetuity. The US Federal Reserve model imposed on the world. That premise was rendered moot when China opened its SWIFT-replacement CIPS to 124 countries in Nov/25. Russia's SPFS also erodes the SWIFT/US$ Reserve Currency system.
The US Treasury used to take a fee every time a currency exchange in/out of the US$ took place. Like the proposed Tobin Tax, a small percentage over so many transactions translates to 'free' $billions.
Soon the US won't be able to perform the currency jiggery-pokery that was used to tank the Iranian rial as prelude to the 'protests' and subsequent planned military attack. The prime example is when the US played the same game against Japan to incite Pearl Harbour. Iran's leadership knows history and is flush with the primary resource the US embargoed Japan from getting... OIL. The standard US/Rothschild playbook is failing, and any efforts by the Rothschilds and their ilk to quietly, gradually exit the failing US$ system to the emergent China/BRICS+ system are being disrupted by Trumpy's egotistical bull-in-a-china-shop adventures. Ya think Rothschild-men Carney, Macron and Starmer suddenly changed their CHINA BAD spots and just meandered over to visit Xi on a whim? Divide and conquer.
Cold War 2.0 suits the Rothschild Class to a 'T', they will then try to incrementally subvert China and Russia's efforts by insinuating themselves back into control of the BRICS+ Central Banks. I think Putin and Xi and other BRICS leaders know better than to let THAT camel get it's nose in the BRICS tent.
This is a pan generational fight for all the world-domination marbles. The Rothschilds have been at this since the 1700's, so they won't be giving up anytime soon.
Good angle
IMO, Iran has done little to warrant US consideration as a strategic threat. The US bellicosity on this front is 98%-driven by the Israeli interests which control much of US foreign policy. Iran would logically pursue a military strategy that blocks the Strait of Hormuz, and includes so many missiles and drones that Israel turns into the same wasteland that Gaza and the West Bank have become.
A quiet redefinition of sovereignty: The African Union claims continental sovereignty, asserting security primacy despite no UNSC seat or stalled reforms. What happens when legitimacy breaks? Follow for more insights!
Hasn’t the US, for all intents and purposes, already left NATO..? My bet is that were Russia to attack an EU NATO country, the Trump admin would reneg on article 5. Perhaps Putin is not willing to make that bet… YET… if only because his resources are stretched thin due to Ukraine.
The ME continues to live in big uncertainty. That's the worst thing that could happen to people's daily lives.
Thank you for the good questions and the analysis.
“Why do we forget? More precisely: why do societies that have been warned — repeatedly, powerfully, unforgettably — about the realities of war continue to embrace militarism, support aggressive leaders, and turn away from the testimony of those who have witnessed and perpetrated its horrors?”
https://griobhtha1.substack.com/p/the-unbearable-weight-of-knowing
read the podcast episode transcript conversation between you and Danny (of yesterday Thursday I believe) and I always learn a little bit more from those interactions. So I appreciate you being a realist as you say. It brings the issues back to earth. 🙏
Indeed
It will strike back …