Iran & Trump's Trip to China
On 8 May 2026, I was on Rachel Blevins’ popular podcast talking about President Trump’s never-ending troubles in Iran and why they are going to hinder him in his upcoming visit to China. When Trump moved back into the White House in January 2025, he thought that he had huge leverage over China, as reflected in his attempt to impose especially high tariffs on Beijing. But the Chinese struck back, reminding Trump that the US was heavily dependent on rare earths, and thus Washington had hardly any leverage in the trade war. Trump backed off. And then came the Iran war, which is a disaster for Trump, in part because the war is working to China’s advantage. Thus, Trump is playing a weak hand as he heads to Beijing. President Xi Jinping surely recognizes he is playing a strong hand and will act accordingly.
China wants the Iran conflict contained, not expanded. Beijing supports Iran politically and economically, mainly to protect oil supplies and counter U.S. influence, but it avoids direct military involvement. Its main goals are regional stability, open trade routes, and preventing a wider war that could hurt China’s economy.
Interesting how quickly the illusion of leverage collapsed once reality pushed back. The rare earth standoff exposed America’s dependence on China, and the Iran conflict only deepened US strategic overextension. Meanwhile, China stayed patient and gained leverage while Washington burned political and economic capital abroad. Trump now heads to Beijing negotiating from a far weaker position than he likely expected.