The American Conservative published my 29 January 2024 interview with Anatol Lieven dealing with the book Sebastian Rosato and I wrote on the rationality of states in the foreign policy realm. The interview was part of a Quincy Institute event. The full title of the book is “How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy.” I have put the link for the interview below as well as a link for the book in case anyone is interested in reading it.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/how-to-know-a-state-is-acting-rationally/
One would think that all the brilliant minds the US has to draw on there seems to be no long term thinking when encroaching on other countries/committing endless wars.
Thinking, Fast and Slow. I'm surprised (actually shocked) that he found no support for this. If it doesn't apply, it has to be because of either political or legal reasons that make it impossible or more probable is that it wasn't possible to come up with the right analytical framework to show it is valid.
That's my bias anyway.
I can see the argument that Putin is rational, but he is:
1) Willing to tell obvious falsehoods to others. Such as those little green men in Ukraine are not associated with Russia.
2) Willing to believe in fairytales or, more likely, simply "cherry-picks" the ones he needs to justify his actions based on the approach in Thinking Fast and Slow.
We're all irrational as individuals and autocratic governments are less likely to allow debate, so their decisions are more likely to wind up being irrational. Hey it isn't like I fully understand everything in "Thinking Fast and Slow." I just went, yea, I'm convinced I'm irrational and there is not a whole lot I can do about it.