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Joann applewhite's avatar

I always laugh when I hear people talk about Russia wanting to take over Ukraine. The US/NATO has circled Russia after saying they would not move east ward. The US Neocons want total destruction of Russia, Iran, and later China. The US/Israel have destroyed Iraq, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Gaza and working on the West Bank. And now Israel/US will go after Iran. The US has broken so many of their own laws to keep funding the genocide. If I were Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan et al I would be prepared to be taken over. Any country with resources the US needs should wake up.

Christopher Jones's avatar

Quite frankly, the Zelenskyy regime IS the impediment to peace. They represent the West's desire to destroy Russia going back at least to 1945 when Allan Dulles tried to get a separate peace with the Nazis to halt Stalin's drive to Berlin. The ultra-nationalists in Ukraine were always pro-Nazi as many Poles will attest to. Fast forward to today's conflict. The Donbass has been under assault since the Maidan coup (at the least) and Russia cannot leave the perpetrators of the Odessa massacre, the military bombardment of the Donbass and the various terror assaults since then go un-punished. It is the refusal of the West's Macron, Starmer, Kallas, Leyen, Meloni and Merz to grasp the origins of the conflict which is so frustrating and even suicidal. These people are degenerate morons, overseeing mass destruction because of comedian who plays the piano with his appendage has gone mad (as if he wasn't before). The dismal intelligence of EU leaders is just shocking. I only hope that the united front Kim-Xi-Putin will come back in force in August.

letterwriter's avatar

That comedian has an interesting bio. He looks to me like a proof-of-concept that worked out: that the Ukrainians are out of their depth in the modern media environment and would be easily fooled by a puppet show which combined "fictional tv show expressing Ukrainians' political dreams and disillusionment" and a political "campaign" that left out all the candidate-vetting parts, and used media techniques to present an image that made a number of Ukrainians believe that the tv show character was who they were voting for. He didn't even state a platform until forced to, in a run-off.

Ukrainians have no homegrown philosophy or hard won history of democratic political engagement. They only have the desire to be like more modern "democratic" countries. Their history is more that of villages, strongmen, and militias, and fin de siècle nationalist screeds, which led to Bandera then to Azov. They are also not very experienced with commercial persuasion. I think they were sitting ducks for "Zelensky" the attorney turned media whiz.

As a politician I think he's a surface representation and something else underneath https://www.unian.info/politics/10558200-co-founder-of-studio-kvartal-95-appointed-zelensky-s-chief-assistant.html

Sharon L Bonney's avatar

The West remains in denial about the causes of the war and the reality on the battlefield. As long as this denial continues there will be no negotiated peace.

Kevin Flynn's avatar

THIS is what we should be striving for. We should be doing our best to do away with petty tribalism and allowing ourselves to be lead by narcissistic creep…

If we were wise as a species we would try to make things more fair. We would set our sights on trying to make people more or less happy. We would try to make our economic systems more sustainable so that we aren't shitting in our own nest. Those things should be our overarching goals. But unfortunately, until we can get to that point, there's the reality of the situation. And, at least in my opinion, the reality of the geopolitical power dynamic situation can largely be explained by John Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism.

So whether you like it or not, when you're a less powerful state which boarders a much larger and more powerful state you have to watch your Ps and Qs. And if you don't play your cards right you can get crushed.

In 2015 John Mearsheimer predicted that Ukraine would get "ruined" if it didn't start playing its cards right.

In my opinion there's the ideal we should be striving for and the reality that we have to deal with and in the interim we have to deal with the reality of the situation. It brings me no joy to say any of this but it's the reality of the situation and it's the truth. And Ukraine, with the help of some extremely foolish leaders, didn't play its cards right. And as a result, a lot of young men have been killed or maimed and a country has been ruined.

So if we as a species were smart, and especially those of us that are fortunate enough to live in the United States we would start using John Mearsheimer’s advice to our advantage.

And for many of the the same types of reasons, humanity would be listening to what I have to say regarding the bigger picture which relates to how we should be trying to modify our mindsets and behavior in order to try to solve our old school problems along with trying to make sure that AI is aligned.

Jon Aarbakke's avatar

I was thinking the other day why Britain decided to join WW2 - and what would have happened.

Nazi Germany was a horrid beast, but for Britain to go to war was a big step (Poland, September 1939). Maybe it was the logic of alliance building and then the trap springs and you have to stand by your promises, and then you are at war. Appeasement, much maligned, was carried out by the Tories: two right-wing movements made a deal.

Was Nazi Germany an existential threat to Britain? I would say "no" (and might explain Munchen and peace in our time).

Hitler's ambitions lay in the East, a fact which is not found anywhere in our schoolbooks. Stalin was as much a threat since it pointed to the internal enemy, the working class. So getting rid of the Soviets must have been a dream for the British upper class.

WW2 was a disaster for Britain. The Empire was doomed in any case, but the war took Britain from superpower to has-been in a v. short time.

Apparently WW2 was fought for democracy and freedom, but not a single colony was set free afterwards. Again, not in my schoolbooks. The truth can hide in plain sight when the ideology makes us blind - which is all the time.

It would be fun to hear @john Mearsheimer's musing on the dilemmas facing the Brits in 1938-1939-1940.

David Skidmore's avatar

No one is expecting Russia to give up "every one of their demands." Even Ukraine recognizes that a ceasefire will leave Russia in control of the Crimea and much of the Donbas, though Ukraine is not prepared to offer Russia de jure recognition of its claims of annexation. Similarly, everyone acknowledges that any deal will require the lifting of most of the sanctions on Russia. Most, though not all, accept that Russian demands that Ukraine be denied membership in NATO will be honored. So it is not Ukraine or the West that has carved out a maximalist position, as you imply. It is Russia that insists upon more territory than it has gained on the battlefield, the permanent crippling of Ukrainian defensive capabilities, etc.

ikester8's avatar

Zelensky, for one, seems to be expecting Russia to give up every one of its demands, as foolhardy as that is. Whether he bends in the face of catastrophe or whether he gets replaced, time will tell.

David Skidmore's avatar

According to the NYT piece this morning, Zelensky has shown flexibility toward the status of the Donbas and those portions of which Russia currently controls at various times from 2019 on. Is he giving away territory in public statements prior to negotiations with Russia or in the absence of Western security commitments? Of course not, and he would be crazy to do so.

ikester8's avatar

He would be suicidal to do so. The Azovs would have his head if he tried to do it now. But capitulate Ukraine will if any of it is to exist as a neutral state.

Magnar Husby's avatar

Professor John Mearsheimer was excellent here!

A Skeptic's avatar

Thanks for your great work John!

We've shared the link on our daily report.

A Skeptic War Reports

https://askeptic.substack.com/

Kevin Flynn's avatar

Hi John,

As I’ve mentioned in the past, even though your theory of offensive realism is exactly correct and as a consequence your analysis of geopolitics is exactly correct, in In many ways, as the title of your post implies, what you’re participating in is a continuous, perpetual exercise of chasing your tail.

(This also relates to the definition of insanity).

My point is that until someone like you is willing to get slightly out of your lane and out of your comfort zone to examine the root cause of all of these problems you’ll continuously be condemned to chasing your tail and continuously condemned to being subjected to a self inflicted type of Sisyphus - like trap.

This isn’t a criticism of what you have to say because unlike 98% of the people in your field you’re exactly correct, it’s just that in order to actually solve the problem one has to look at the root cause of the problem.

It’s kind of like a doctor describing the symptoms of a disease rather than addressing the cause of the disease.

Sean Griobhtha's avatar

Zionism knows the power of religion to achieve its fascist glory, and Zionists praise the power of fascism (Romans, Spartans, Zionist, and Slavery); which, in turn, makes reality of the gullibility and ignorance of the populace and utilizes religion to achieve clearly antagonistic ends, in order to solidify power (this clearly applies to Christian Zionists as well). And again, like Mussolini:

“It is a well-known ability of viciousness to mimic the appearances of virtue and truth; else, should evil look as ugly as it is, its power upon humans would be small. This favorite guile of the fiend has long been adumbrated in the allegory introducing Satan as a handsome angel, nay, the handsomest in all the celestial array. Accordingly, the first section of Mussolini’s dissertation smuggled the anarchy and tyranny of the One as a remedy against the disintegrating individualism of many; while the latter section disguises lust for carnage and sadistic glory as heroism, nay, as the only possible redemption from cowardice and selfishness.

“It should have come out clearly for the readers and for the author as well that it is not the amount which decides the quality of human energy. Such phrases as “the maximum of tension” or “the storm i the people’s hearts” are liquor spilt from a cheap romantic cask. It used to be intoxicating; it is now lees and sourness. Were the amount or violence of explosive energy the measure for human conduct, the fury of the arsonist should seem better than the architect’s endurance and the rapist should be above the saint.” (ibid)

https://griobhtha1.substack.com/p/dear-zionist

English, Arabic, Hebrew

Sean Griobhtha's avatar

“The evidence of this psychopathy is detailed in numerous volumes of scholarly investigation. Again, laid out and concluded by Edward Gibbon’s 6 volume epic history The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776-1789); and recently “discovered” by Jewish scientists, archeologists, and historians: The majority of the world now knows that there was no Israeli kingdom of the ridiculous size sketched out by Theodor Herzl. Israeli historians, archeologists, and scientists have stated matter-of-factly that there was no Joshua, no fallen walls of Jericho, no David, no Solomon, no mass Jewish slavery in Egypt, no Maccabees nor mass entrapped suicide at Masada, no Diaspora, and obviously, nor morals. At the time the Jews supposedly escaped from the Pharaoh, the entire land of Palestine was part of his empire, and you don’t think he could have recaptured such a mass of people “lost” in his desert for the common “40 years”; and that Moses, raised as a Prince of that empire, and familiar with the Pharaoh’s kingdom, was too stupid to read the sun and tell which way was North?!? It’s all a fairy tale for idiots like you, Zionist; and of course your idiot brothers & sisters of the Christian Zionist community. What has proved true is the Zionist penchant for lying and self-delusion.”

https://griobhtha1.substack.com/p/dear-zionist

k.momchev's avatar

Interesting reading from "Spiegel":

Bill Clinton wanted Russia in NATO.

But there were strong objections from European leaders:

- Internal contradictions will become too great, NATO will lose its ability to act.

- In addition, the alliance is "insurance against Russian instability", which is incompatible with Russia.

- And most importantly: if Moscow becomes part of the alliance, Western soldiers may be forced to "protect Russia on the border with China (a nuclear power) and Mongolia". Unthinkable.

But then NATO's promise of mutual assistance would lose all credibility altogether. Conclusion: "Russia's accession means the end of the alliance as we see it."

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/geheimdokumente-wie-helmut-kohl-eine-nato-mitgliedschaft-russlands-hintertrieb-a-e28ff00c-0674-4806-a536-641249f462dc

Cheryl's avatar

Okay, that moment when Judge Napolitano said, “You” (then paused) have forgotten more than…

Very bizarre!

I think Judge Napolitano was vey much in Biden camp and trying to pretend otherwise.

joe woolslayer's avatar

The Jews hate Russia.

denmla's avatar

.Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.