Geopolitics and Georgia
On 17 December 2025, I did a podcast with Ian Proud — the very smart and well-informed former British diplomat — on TV IMEDI, which is located in the country of Georgia. We talked about the geopolitics of Europe, especially as it relates to Georgia, which is the other country besides Ukraine that NATO said in April 2008 that it was going to bring into the alliance. Of course, that led to a war between Georgia and Russia five months later (August 2008), which Georgia lost. Today, Georgia remains caught in a precarious strategic situation, caught between the EU on one side and Russia on the other.
The interview has been translated into Georgian — overriding most of the English-language commentary — which will greatly limit the number of people who can listen to it. I posted it anyway, because I thought that possibly some of my clever followers would be able to translate it into English for themselves.
"The tragedy of war is that good men and women die fighting each other, rather than their real enemies back home in their capitals." —Edward Abbey
What if they called for war and no one showed up? Then the politicians would have to fight and die in their own battles for the pluder they seek.
Gave the video to gemini and asked it to translate the autogenerated closed caption to english with timestamps:
Video Title: Tbilisi Time - December 21, 2025 Guest: Professor John Mearsheimer
[00:10] Good evening, this is the project "Tbilisi Time" with Ian Proud and Irina Batiashvili. Today in our program, we are pleased to present Professor John... [00:19] Mearsheimer. Professor Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. He... [00:30] received his PhD in 1980, and from 1980-1982 was a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs. In 2003, Professor Mearsheimer... [00:43] was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is perhaps the most influential realist thinker of the 21st century. Professor Mearsheimer, 10 years... [00:53] ago, gave a lecture at the University of Chicago titled "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?" which had millions of views on YouTube, and if you haven't... [01:03] seen it, definitely look it up and watch it. Professor Mearsheimer's views on today's world problems and challenges enjoy great popularity, therefore... [01:14] of course, we are delighted that he is our guest on the program today. Professor Mearsheimer, welcome to our program. I am glad to be a guest, thank you... [01:25] for the invitation. [01:30] I am also grateful that you visited us on air, John. I know how busy your schedule is. First of all, I want to recall your very famous... [01:39] lecture 10 years ago. What you said then has come true exactly in Ukraine. Despite this, few leaders in Europe want the war to end... [01:49] They want the war to continue. Moreover, many of them indirectly hinder the Trump administration's peace policy. Politicians like Kaja Kallas talk about giving the EU... [02:00] more geopolitical weight. In this process, why don't they want the war in Ukraine to end in Europe? [02:16] I don't think they face a good future. When I say them, I mean European leaders. It is a given that Europe has put itself before very big challenges... [02:24] Relations with Russia have been so poisoned that this is already becoming a cause of problems within the EU itself. It is significant that there are also challenges in relations with Washington... [02:35] On the other hand, the Russian side has an interest in there being disagreement between various European states. The Kremlin wants disagreement between Washington and Brussels... [02:44] Therefore, I believe that Europe will be largely concentrated on Russia, and the relationship between them is poisoned. At the same time, the Americans, especially... [02:55] the Trump administration, are more interested in reducing American military resources in Europe, including possibly abandoning NATO. This in itself for Europe... [03:06] brings terrible results, because American security guarantees will be lost and Europe will be left alone. It will be difficult for Europe to conduct a unified policy considering the poisoned relations with Russia... [03:17] and also against the background of the reduction of security provided to Europe by Washington, the European Union faces real challenges. [03:35] From the perspective of a person living in Europe, I agree with you regarding NATO. I will also ask you about that, but first I want to talk to you about Zelensky. He stated during negotiations in Berlin... [03:47] that Kiev is ready to give up NATO. This looks like a step forward, but you, a representative of the realism school in international relations, for a long... [03:56] time have stated that Ukraine could never join NATO. Why did it take the West so much time to make this conclusion? [04:09] To tell you the truth, I think we haven't reached the stage yet where Ukraine's accession to NATO is fully removed. Zelensky is dragging his feet on this issue... [04:18] and the Ukrainians are not yet planning to remove the constitutional record about joining NATO. Even more important is that Ukraine demands Article 5-like... [04:29] security guarantees from Washington. This is equivalent to NATO membership. The Russians have repeatedly stated clearly that for them it is unacceptable not only Ukraine's... [04:39] accession to NATO but also unacceptable for Kiev to receive security guarantees from Washington that would be de facto similar to NATO. And Zelensky... [04:49] is demanding exactly that. If we look at the general picture of what followed the meetings held in Berlin on December 14 and 15, the positions of the Europeans, Ukrainians, and... [04:59] Americans, not only regarding NATO but regarding all other important issues, are in direct contradiction with the Russian position, and I choose every word carefully... [05:09] These negotiations are a fake. The Europeans and Ukrainians do not want an agreement with Russia at all, because they do not want to concede. [05:25] The Western media is finally stating that Ukraine cannot win the war. Against the backdrop of events around Ukraine, their attention is now turned... [05:34] towards Georgia. We saw a BBC report as if World War I era chemical weapons were used during the dispersal of rallies in Georgia. Are international forces trying... [05:45] to repeat a scenario similar to Ukraine in 2014 and overthrow the Georgian government? [06:00] It is important to realize that Russia is at war with NATO. In other words, Europe is involved in a war with Russia. Europe, including the European media, the European... [06:10] political elite, is interested in weakening Russia's positions. The West considers it its success to mess up the situation in Georgia through a coup d'état or forcing the Georgian government to pursue... [06:22] an anti-Russian policy. We are dealing with exactly the same events in Ukraine. Europe is using Ukraine as an instrument to drain Russia of blood, to weaken Russia... [06:33] I would say that Georgia must be very careful not to find itself involved in such a relationship with the West that would be perceived as a threat from the Russian perspective... [06:42] because then Russia will act to cause unrest in Georgia, and Georgia does not need this at all. [06:58] Georgia certainly does not need this. This unusual support of Europe for Ukraine is also problematic because Europe does not have sufficient finances. Even if... [07:09] peace were established tomorrow, which is unlikely, these financial challenges will not disappear. The Russians have probably already given up on returning their own... [07:19] frozen assets in the near future, but what message is this for the rest of the world? I mean the Euroclear example. Four trillion is invested in Europe. What message is this for the rest...