Europe's Unending Troubles
On 9 December 2025, I was on Max Otte’s podcast in Germany talking about the Ukraine war and Europe’s bleak future.
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On 9 December 2025, I was on Max Otte’s podcast in Germany talking about the Ukraine war and Europe’s bleak future.
Ever since I was a child Russia has been a boogeyman. At first they scared me, but as the years went by with the same scare and nothing happened, I became more afraid of US! No doubt there is a lot of money to be made from this non-stop scare pushed by both parties, and no doubt the military industrial complex has made a fortune. The democrats used Russia-gate to scare the hell out of us when Trump came into office in 2016, and a Biden win, gave us the threat Putin has got to go. If I allow myself to be scared I can reflect on the US backed coup in Ukraine in 2014 which ousted a pro-Russian Yanukovich that got this whole thing off the ground and ultimately created a killing field with hundreds of thousands of dead. Now some European countries have picked up the slack as Trump backed off, however he keeps them supplied with weapons. I am really afraid of US and the company we keep.
My 8 minus 2 theory from 2022 still holds..
I think the 4 oblasts (although very important economically, etc.) are non-vital areas in the social sense. As a Ukrainian nationalist, why bother when 10 million+ Russian Ukrainians are no longer a part of your country?
With 400-500,000 sq kms they will still be one of Europe's biggest countries, with a relatively small (but more homogenous...) population. So no shortage of territory.
Things will get more serious once Russians start to progress towards taking a total of 8 oblasts, either land locking Ukraine in the south or taking a city like Kharkiv in the North and large chunks of land East of the Dniepr. Then many more 'Real Ukrainians' will have to move West, the economic potential could get halved, and the military momentum would be very negative.
That might be a moment where the situation becomes so dire that Zelensky or his successor will consider 'giving up', and ask his partners to not support him with arms but with negotiations.
Perhaps by that time the Europeans are also ready to accept defeat and start talking about long term European security, returning Russians assets, lifting sanctions, etc.
US can lay low and just assume Trump's beloved 'Mediator' role.
Right now the 1 year forecast would be losing the 4 oblasts and a little bit elsewhere.
Once the 1 year forecast becomes losing oblasts 6 thru 8 and then some, after a prolonged period of accelerating losses, that might be sufficiently dramatic to change the UA attitude.
If Ukraine then decides to change the constitution, demilitarise, etc. I think the Russians will be fine with settling borders more advantageously to Ukraine than the natural boundary of the Dniepr River. Let's say keeping either 6 oblasts or its equivalent after redrawing a few lines.
Until then, either Von der Leyen and Kallas would have to come to their senses, or Zelensky and his crew would have to step down to change the equation. I don't see that happening.
So I still have hope for the 8-2 theory, which might take 2 years or more to complete.
Otherwise we're looking at the 40% mentioned by the professor (probably 4+ years), or worse.