On 10 April 2026, I was on Breaking Points talking about why Trump cannot win against Iran if he goes up the escalation ladder and why his only exit option is to concede defeat. Now that the 11-12 April 2026 US-Iranian negotiations in Islamabad have failed, Trump has decided to escalate and impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is not going to cause Iran to surrender. How can it? After all Iran is facing an existential threat and it is winning the war. In fact, blockading Iran is going to have devastating effects on the global economy, which is already in a world of hurt. Trump is only increasing the speed at which the Titanic is heading toward the iceberg.
Escalation Will Not Work for Trump
The move toward multi-polarity has been accelerated.
It would seem a blockade on Iran will inconvenience China, be difficult for some BRICS+ countries, but it will be very difficult for countries that side with the US/Israel. This is why EU/NATO countries are distancing themselves from the US. See Carney and Macron et.al. making deals with China to front-run the inevitable logical response from China, where all shipments to the US/Israel are shut off.
A reasonable rationale can be made that since the US is deliberately damaging China's economy and BRICS+ partners, it should be the US that does without Chinese/BRICS products that require resources from Iran. The US/Israel continues to ignore International law and agreements, others shouldn't have to honour the same in regard to the US/Israel. Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
Trump will have to either fold, or will be impeached in short order, when Walmart shelves are empty and gasoline price doubles again.
Stupid is as stupid does.