Escalation Will Not Work for Trump
On 10 April 2026, I was on Breaking Points talking about why Trump cannot win against Iran if he goes up the escalation ladder and why his only exit option is to concede defeat. Now that the 11-12 April 2026 US-Iranian negotiations in Islamabad have failed, Trump has decided to escalate and impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is not going to cause Iran to surrender. How can it? After all Iran is facing an existential threat and it is winning the war. In fact, blockading Iran is going to have devastating effects on the global economy, which is already in a world of hurt. Trump is only increasing the speed at which the Titanic is heading toward the iceberg.
I find this move to be another irrational decision by the Trump administration.
The reason why Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz was to put economic pressure on regional actors and the global economy as a whole to achieve two things: 1) inflict sufficient economic damage to re-establish deterrence (make the US think twice before attacking Iran again in the future); and 2) use it as bargaining chip for negotiations.
A blockade by the US on the Strait of Hormuz in fact furthers Iran’s objective 1) above. As a bonus, it’ll also turn the rest of the world against the US (even further than before) as now Iran can clearly point to the US as the actor preventing the flow of oil/goods through the Strait.
Re 2), the ultimate goal of the US is to reopen the Strait, and that is ultimately up to Iran. So a blockade doesn’t change the reality on the ground (or the sea to be precise) - Iran can still use the closing of the Strait as a bargaining chip. What will a blockade on a blockade achieve here except adding noise to the powerplay?
The move toward multi-polarity has been accelerated.