Big Trouble Ahead in Iran
On 3 March 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking about the Iran war. I told the Judge that the Trump administration was dragged into this war by Israel and its enormously powerful lobby in the US. Both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and House Speaker Mike Johnson have admitted as much and it is clear from listening to and reading the discourse on the internet that many Americans understand that this is another war for Israel. Iran was no threat to the US and there was no reason for Trump to attack it.
I also emphasized that it is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US win this war. It seems that victory for this aggressive tag team requires not only regime change in Iran, but replacing the regime with new leaders who are subservient to Israeli and American wishes. If those two things do not happen, Iran will surely keep its nuclear enrichment capability; keep building ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, & long-range drones; and keep supporting Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. The likelihood of this war producing an Iranian regime that is subservient to Israel and the US is close to zero in my estimation.
For Iran to win, all it has to do is survive and not end up as a pawn of Israel and the US. Even if its missile inventory is greatly diminished, its nuclear enrichment capability is crippled, and its infrastructure is badly damaged, it matters little if the regime survives or is replaced by a regime that refuses to kowtow to the tag team. Remember that in the Vietnam War, the US won virtually every battle and lost the war.
You're absolutely correct, but this isn't just about iran, but the replacement of a western eurocentric system that has defined international order for centuries
The Iranians have been preparing for this for some time and their aim isn't to destroy the US and israel militarily but more importantly economically.
This is a war of attrition and one which neither the u s nor israel is prepared for.
Prof. Mearsheimer,
Thanks for your outstanding contributions! You’ve done so much to educate, a thing that is simply priceless.
Thanks, too, for reminding us, in the most succinct and easy to understand way, that Americans seem to have a difficult time learning the lessons of history: “Remember that in the Vietnam War, the US won virtually every battle and lost the war’. That seems stupid, but explains so much about how it is, after some sixty-odd years, we’re just as dumb as ever.